16 BETDAQ ANTE-POST LISTS: Daqman today revises his list of prospects for Cheltenham and finds an ante-post bet as the orange lists for the festival swell to 16 races full of bargain buys.
TODAY: Daqman takes a look over the jumping action at Taunton featuring an interesting French recruit to the Nicky Henderson/JP McManus/Barry Geraghty trio. That’s our man’s Nap and runs at 2.45.
LEICESTER GREEN LIGHT: Wednesday’s meeting at Leicester goes ahead as planned after the track passed an inspection.
FULL THROTTLE TO TAKE 6.0 ‘VROUM VROUM’
Take the Ladbrokes tip. With another impressive performance by Thistlecrack at the weekend, the World Hurdle looks his for the taking.
Only he and Faugheen have scored 10 in my review of the trial races, and only Vroum Vroum Mag stands in the way of his World at Cheltenham.
She’s waiting in the wings in case the Thistle cracks before the race, but Vroum Vroum is now much more likely to take on the veteran Annie Power in the Mares Hurdle.
Ladbrokes are so convinced of this that they go 9-4 Vroum Vroum, where some big-name firms go 11-2 and you could get 6.0 on BETDAQ last night to limited liquidity.
I’ve checked out all those I put up for Cheltenham and the other festivals and here’s how I now see the list (the Gold Cup is taken separated, and there’ll be a full report next week).
ARCTIC FIRE (6 marks out of 10)
See last list on January 25th. Will stand his ground for the Champion Hurdle at around 7-1 (with bookies) in case something happens to the favourite. You can get 13.0 on BETDAQ. Deleted from my list.
BRISTOL DE MAI (8)
See last list. Now as low as 8-1 for the JLT Novices’ Chase; 9.4 on BETDAQ last time I checked.
CLOUDY TOO (7)
See last list. More likely to go to Aintree, and expected to run in the Haydock Park Grand National Trial on February 20.
DOUVAN (9)
See last list. At 2-1 on all round for the Arkle with bookies: 57-100 best on BETDAQ with good liquidity.
FAUGHEEN (10)
See last list. He’s 33-100 for the Champion Hurdle with most bookies, 45-100 in the BETDAQ orange.
LE PREZIEN (6)
See last list. Goes to Aintree.
NICHOLS CANYON (5)
See last list. Best wait for Punchestown, though will stand his ground for the Champion Hurdle – at 10-1 and 12-1 with the bookies – in case anything happens to the favourite. Correspondingly big at 21.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
SIRE DE GRUGY (5)
See last list. The 2014 Champion Chase winner is now 23.0 on BETDAQ for this year’s race. Deleted.
THISTLECRACK (10)
He has to get maximum marks for his Cleeve Hurdle follow up to the Long Walk, and is favourite all round for the World Hurdle (2.38 BETDAQ).
Only Vroum Vroum Mag seems to stand in his way and, unless he drops out through some misfortune, she’s more likely to go for the Mares Hurdle.
UN DE SCEAUX (9)
See last list. Around 4-6 with the bookies for Champion Chase; that’s 66-100. But 91-100 last time I checked out the BETDAQ list.
VIBRATO VALTAT (3)
See last list. Deleted.
VROUM VROUM MAG (8)
See last list. Varies between 4-1 and 7-1 for the World Hurdle with the fixed-odds layers but 8.4 on BETDAQ., though likely to swerve Thistlecrack.
She would be diverted to the opening day’s Mares Hurdle, for which she is 6.0 on BETDAQ behind Annie Power but only 9-4 with Ladbrokes!
Another possibility is the Ryanair Chase, for which she is 9.8 on BETDAQ this morning, as more and more races open up to her.
YANWORTH (9)
New to the list. Now four in a row after his Neptune Trial success on Saturday, when stepped up in trip for the first time. That he got it without coming off the bridle for the most part suggests he will be hard to beat in the real thing at Cheltenham. This is one BETDAQ punters have got stuck into: 3.0 at best now.
ONE BLOODY MARY PLEASE
2.45 Taunton There is an interesting addition to today’s proceedings at Taunton. An six time winning French import takes her first steps on British soil with a fairly lofty reputation.
It almost seems too obvious to be true. Bought by JP McManus, presumably for a pretty penny, and trained by Nicky Henderson, Bloody Mary should be well capable of putting in a big show on her UK debut. She won five Bumpers and a Hurdle in France and although we don’t have much to go by, the very fact that she now runs in these colours means that she must be a decent one.
Lou Very had just the one run over hurdles in France and also makes his UK debut. Being a four year old, he gets a weight allowance and was a winner on the flat last January.
I think we can have a little more confidence in Bloody Mary and we can hope for a nice performance from her.
3.45 Taunton A competitive handicap hurdle. Master Red and After Hours are vying for favouritism.
After Hours seems to be quite harshly treated here following a win win at Haydock last time. That was his first time in a Handicap and won by a short head but he’s got a massive hike of 10lbs. Despite pulling 12 lengths clear of the third horse, that looks a little much.
Master Red hasn’t been seen for 444 days but was well regarded in the Donald McCain yard and today has his first run for David Pipe. The Pipe yard are synonymous for getting their horses fit so I’m not unduly worried by the long absence. If fit enough, running off a mark of 124 makes Master Red unexposed for this.
4.15 Taunton Even though there’s a small field, this is a nice race. Wychwoods Brrok, Tour De Champs and Minellahalfcentury were all highly rated at one point.
Down at the bottom of the weights, Sonny The One is the horse of note for me. Unpenalised for a second over course and distance in December. The form has been franked with the winner going on to take second in a better class race. The light weight may be the deciding factor and Sonny looks to be The One here.
4.45 Taunton The final race is a little trickier. There are several with chances but I’ve narrowed it down to one.
Join The Navy hasn’t won since this time last year but he rarely runs a bad race. All his wins have come on soft ground and although he was beaten 15 lengths last time, that came over course and distance so that will stand to him. That day he ran into a very well handicapped sort that’s now rated 126. Join The Navy should go close again.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; a banker is 10)
BET 8pts win (nap) BLOODY MARY (2.45 Taunton)
BET 4pts win MASTER RED (3.45 Taunton)
BET 4pts win SONNY THE ONE (4.15 Taunton)
BET 2pts win and place JOIN THE NAVY (4.45 Taunton)
ANTE-POST: BETS (to win 50): 10pts win VROUM VROUM MAG for the Mares Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and 5.6pts win for the Ryanair Chase.
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