5-1 GOLDEN CHANCE CRASHES: Clear at 5-1, Golden Chieftain fell three out. For three doubles and a treble up, Black Hercules fell at the last. Just another day in the mud for Daqman, and thousands of punters everywhere.
FORM-IN-A-STORM WARNING: It was so bad at Exeter that the only horse to finish in the veterans’ chase tried to pull himself up on the run-in. What is any of the recent form worth? Today Daqman issues a Cheltenham warning from these storm-soaked weeks?
CHELTENHAM: BEWARE OF THE DIRTY DOZEN
Ruby Walsh landed a hat-trick yesterday. It’s one that he, and all who back hot favourites, will want to forget: Djakadam, Valseur Lido and now Black Hercules, are the trio of recent major-race fallers under him with big prizes at their mercy.
Ruby doesn’t normally ride a married-man’s race and his form figures in the club sandwich of those shocks include (February only) an awesome 1213331133F1212.
Ruby, at 37 in May, has three or four years left in the saddle if his old mate Tony McCoy (41) is the yardstick, but what are punters left with from the sodden Cheltenham festival form-book?
Backers must pick themselves up from the mud and try to make sense of big-race markets, some of which still fly high those recent fallers and flops, while others have rejected them and hiked new kids on the block.
But, if we have a normal fast-ground, good or even a good-to-soft Cheltenham, we are faced with short-priced horses like this mud-loving dirty dozen from the front of the markets, sporting form that may end up blowing in the wind of dry Spring days:
A Toi Phil (various engagements) All races so far on soft (one) and heavy (four).
Bellshill (Various engagements) All four hurdles wins on heavy ground.
Black Hercules (NH Chase) All starts hurdles and fences on heavy (five) and soft (one).
Connetable (Triumph Hurdle) All races run on soft, very soft or heavy.
Fixe La Kap (Triumph Hurdle) All form in five starts, France and England, on soft, very soft and heavy.
Footpad (Triumph Hurdle) Irish form on soft, soft-heavy and heavy: 1311. Never raced on sounder surface.
Min (Supreme Novices Hurdle), one of the Willie Mullins’ host. All form on soft, very soft and heavy.
No More Heroes (RSA Chase) Only one run in 11-race career on terrain with good or good to soft as the going return; all others on yielding, soft, and soft-heavy. Result of sole start on good to yielding: beaten 25 lengths.
Outlander (JLT Novices Chase) Three in a row this season on soft, heavy and soft-heavy. Form on good and good-to-yeilding: 03.
Politologue (Coral Cup) All form on soft, very soft and heavy, including when winning yesterday.
Vroum Vroum Mag (Various races) All form in France, Ireland and England in 2014, 2015 and 2016 (that’s 10 races) in soft, very soft, soft-heavy, heavy
Yorkhill (Neptune) All form on yielding, soft and heavy.
KEEP LEFT! THAT’S NOT SUCH A MAD IDEA
2.30 Plumpton Here we go again! Surely Ar Mad will need no more than an exercise canter to dismiss two horses that are out of the handicap and land long odds-on.
But his sole run left-handed was here in October, when he jumped out to the right and was beaten 21 lengths.
He has officially improved 31lb since then but needs this test of a cack-handed track before the Arkle. Whether he has a pricker bridle to help, I don’t know; they don’t tell us these things.
Ar Mad has beaten both Vaniteux and Bristol de Mai, so a good round anti-clockwise here could see him shorten a bit from 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning, possibly leapfrogging Vaniteux to become the main market threat to the odds-on Douvan.
3.00 Plumpton There were 10 Anthony Honeyball runners in the last fortnight surrounding his one winner, As De Fer.
One pulled up; the nine others were beaten a total of 240 lengths or so. Which one did I lay? As De Fer.
Anthony has his two winningmost riders at Plumpton for him today, Aidan Coleman – Chill Factor against Ar Mad – and David Noonan, who’s on paper-favourite Fountains Blossom in this one.
But, though Fountains Blossom won back-to-back bumpers on today’s course, he eased from an opening 4.9 to 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning, with interesting money for Rock Gone on his first start for 423 days.
Before that I was tempted that Cannon Fodder, dropped from Graded level, would be hard to beat, despite top weight.
Colin Tizzard is double-handed (top jockeys on each), with front-runner Billy No Name and Jumps Road stepping up in trip.
As befits a wide-open race, BETDAQ offers added up to a 105% overround, and I fancied Billy No Name might pinch it from the front (5.1, as I write), with Cannon Fodder staying on – he’s won over further – and Rock Gone likely to be my saver nearer the ‘off.’
ANOTHER McMANUS FESTIVAL HERO?
3.10 Catterick Askamore Darsi had two tough races in January, a front-runner hanging on under the whip, and the handicapper wasn’t impressed, raising him just 2lb on the last day.
So I shall click on Gonalston Cloud who, though his mark has been hiked for back-to-back success, one of them here, he is dropping down into novice company from all-aged handicaps.
4.10 Catterick Gigginstown and Wylie are the owners’ names at the front of the NH Chase market at Cheltenham, but that man J P McManus could come in from the cold today.
His outsider for the festival race, former class-2 hurdler Another Hero has done everything asked of him over fences since his return from minor injuries,
He rates the nap at 4.1 this morning in a delicious 106% orange, in which Looking Well has been strongly supported to step up on his burgeoning novice form, now handicapping.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 5pts win BILLY NO NAME and 1pt win (stakes saver) ROCK GONE (3.00 Plumpton)
BET 7pts win GONALSTON CLOUD (3.10 Catterick)
BET 7pts win (nap) ANOTHER HERO and 2pts win (stakes saver) LOOKING WELL (4.10 Catterick)
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