IT’S BETTER BETTING ON BETDAQ: Starting today! Daqman whets your appetite for his betting plans to cover Cheltenham and the other major meetings this year. He’ll be looking this week and next at ways of winning and why it’s better betting on BETDAQ.
WINNER BE A WINNER AT RASEN: Today Daqman naps a horse called Winner at Market Rasen after two juicy naps this week already, Jessbers Dream (WON 9-2) and Bredon Hill Lad (WON 5-2).
TAKE IT ALL IN YOUR STRIDE ON BETDAQ
It’s nice of you to criticise me. But I don’t read criticism. It’s nice of you to praise me. But that’s beside the point, too.
After a junk Saturday followed five consecutive days of winners, I’ve had both. But this is what I would prefer..
That you and I both appreciate that this amazing game is about being able to freely get enough winners at value prices to make it pay.
If you did that with a bookie for long enough, your account would be closed. So let’s celebrate the great breakthrough that is BETDAQ, where you don’t have to choose from offers that are deliberately priced against you.
I was at pains to point out on Saturday the astonishing 102 and 103% orange on BETDAQ morning offers in the feature races, barely overround at all. What happened?
In consecutive races at Ascot yesterday, the Total SPs were 114, 121 and 118% and only one of those races was a handicap! That means that, in some cases, you are giving the bookie an extra pound every time you bet a fiver.. Are you crazy!
Add to the bookmakers’ mendacity the fact that they know you will get disheartened and frustrated if you don’t win all the time. So first the dice are loaded against you; then you bet do-or-die! Why not just put the money in an envelope and give it to them.
As a loser, you could well become one of those sad after-timers who then turn around and blame everyone else.
You must bet on the level! That means don’t kid yourself; don’t blame anyone else; no one else put the bet on for you.
This is how it works. Bet only on BETDAQ, where there is a level playing field, or nearly so.. that’s what 102 backed, 100 paid out, really means: 100-102 described as 102% is a tiny overround of a 100-100 round book.
Next rule is that winners will not come evenly. It could happen WWWWWL as this week with my tipping: Monday to Friday two or more winners a day; then Saturday BUMP!
I’m afraid you’ll even get LLLLLLW (will you still hang on in there for that W for win? Or will you give up?). I don’t really have to tell you that winners and losers come in a series or coup, clusters of good and bad fortune like everything else in life.
So what’s the answer? The answer is to take a long-term view, gear your expectations to profit over a period of time, so that the clustering doesn’t bother you.
Then when you or I get WWWWW, you’ll know it’s only part of the rich pattern of betting over time – no praise necessary – and that LLLLL can be taken in your stride without losing your cool: no criticism of yourself or anyone else needed,because you are in control.
I shall be discussing more about the art of betting on BETDAQ; more about how to try to create a winning series or coup; all geared to great occasions like Cheltenham and Royal Ascot. Let this be your big winning year.
WINNER WAITING TO HAPPEN AT RASEN
I wouldn’t have done anything differently yesterday. That’s your first test: did you make a mess of it; or do you still find the results could have gone either way?
When I consider these things, all I have to do is think of the planning and subsequent heartache of connections of something like Newton Thistle (Friday).
That would have really cream-topped my dream day after a 9-2 nap. But Newton Thistle (2nd 10-1): ‘drew clear; led run-in; tired; caught near line.’
Sadly he wasn’t in a WWW coup but was the blip in a WLW. We were on at 12.5 on BETDAQ (can’t boast about a win; mustn’t blub about the loss; it’s only part of the game. But can flag yet another horse that was better on BETDAQ).
2.00 Ffos Las Preseli Rock is weighted to reverse December form here with Never Equalled but I wouldn’t count on it: Preseli is a maiden, a bridesmaid; and his trainer, Rebecca Curtis, has moved into the Cold in the Racing Post, 43 days without a winner from 25 attempts.
Venetia Williams seems to have a stable full of mudlovers and I shall have a pound on her ex-Points player Redmond, who was 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
2.10 and 2.45 Market Rasen Here’s one winner I tipped you that keeps on winning! I told you years ago when this column began that Market Rasen would join the ranks of top racecourses.
Only recently I was able to show you figures that prove that it’s done just that and, when you Jumps fiends are moaning about the Flat, wishing it was over, Rasen will bring you some fabulous summer chases and hurdles at Listed level.
One or both of Chocca Wocca (2.10) and Clemency (2.45) could win for Nicky Henderson, who landed a double yesterday and is 33% for hurdlers at Rasen. I’ll put the pair in my Daq Multiples.
3.20 Market Rasen I have to stand by Winner Massagot, despite his flop when I tipped him on the last day. Rasen is a turning track that keeps a horse concentrating, so I think he’ll be able to give the weight all round.
His easy win over Rayvin Black at Ascot in November, albeit getting a few pounds, now looks Cheltenham material after Rayvin’s second in the Champion Hurdle Trial at Haydock and demolition job in yesterday’s Kingwell at Wincanton.
3.45 Ffos Las Horatio Hornblower, 5.7 this morning, is a glass horse but wins when fresh and has scored in the mud on this track.
Trainer Nick Williams hasn’t had a runner out of the first four in the last week or so, with figures of 14243214, suggesting that Horatio is not a loose canon today and should be in at the finish.
When I had a win-and-place bet on BETDAQ, the place offers were such that I could cover my win stake with the place bet; full insurance.
3.55 Market Rasen The JP-Jonjo bandwagon hit a rut in the road to Cheltenham when Montdragon ‘got beat’ yesterday but, in the absence of another festival hope, Ballyalton, they should be able to take this with Lockstockandbarrel, Richard Johnson’s only mount at the Lincolnshire track.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 2pts win and place REDMOND (2.00 Ffos Las)
BET 9pts win (nap) WINNER MASSAGOT (3.20 Market Rasen)
BET 3pts win and place HORATIO HORNBLOWER (3.45 Ffos Las)
BET 8pts win LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL (3.55 Market Rasen)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt win acca CHOCCA WOCCA (2.10 Market Rasen), CLEMENCY (2.45 Market Rasen) WINNER MASSAGOT (3.20 Market Rasen) and LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL (3.55 Market Rasen)
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