HONDA CLASSIC: The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing kicks off this week with the Honda Classic, as one of the toughest courses on Tour awaits a strong field that features 11 of the top-20 in the world rankings, including market leaders Rory McIlroy (7.2) and Rickie Fowler (14.5).
PGA National’s Champion Course was re-designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1990 and has hosted this event in each of the past nine years, during which time only two winners have managed to reach double-digits under par. It’s a strenuous tee-to-green test that is extremely penal in spots, and high winds regularly blow across the flat, exposed layout. Maybe that’s why we’ve seen three Open Champions win this tournament in the last decade, including Padraig Harrington last year. I’m telling you, this course is no joke– it’s a par-70 with very few obvious birdie opportunities, it’s frequently windy, and there’s death in the form of water hazards lurking everywhere. Sounds fun, right? And we haven’t even mentioned the Bear Trap, a 3-hole stretch on the back nine (holes 15, 16, and 17) that absolutely eats guys alive. Take last year, for instance, when the field played the Bear Trap in a combined 2.571 strokes over par while playing the remaining 15 holes in +3.535. It makes for entertaining viewing and some intriguing in-play betting opportunities, but it’s the golf equivalent of a Monster Truck rally: you’re just waiting for the crash.
Speaking of crashes, our red-hot start to the season has come to a screeching halt over the past couple of weeks, just as I was starting to guzzle my own kool-aid!! (I mean, who hasn’t thought about adding a couple of zeros to the end of your bets when things are going well??) It’s a long season, though, so we know there will be peaks and valleys. Let’s hope these three selections help us climb that mountaintop once again:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Patrick Reed (21.0)- Reed appeared to be moving in the wrong direction after he withdrew from the Farmers Insurance Open with a supposed ankle injury, but he took a week off and then looked really good at Pebble Beach, closing with back-to-back 65s to tie for 6th in the AT&T. That means he’s now logged five top-10s in his last seven worldwide starts, and this week he returns to a place where he nearly got the job done last year, finishing third after stumbling at the Bear Trap on Sunday. He’s now made 3-of-3 cuts in this event and has a pair of top-25s, so you’d have to conclude that he’s pretty comfortable at PGA National. For that matter, he seems to be pretty comfortable with South Florida golf in general– he won at Doral in 2014, after all, and he grew up on the Bermuda-covered courses of south Texas and north Georgia, so he knows all about grainy greens and grabby lies around the greens. I have a feeling the stars are going to align for Reed this week.
Branden Grace (34.0)- Grace has quietly established himself as one of the finest players in the world over the past year and he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, winning the Qatar Masters four weeks ago and finishing in the top-10 in each of his last six worldwide events. As a South African he’s very comfortable with Florida-style golf– the climate, grasses, and architecture being very similar to what he’s used to– and he opened with 65-71 in this tournament back in 2013 (his only appearance), so you know he has a degree of comfort with PGA National. This is a first-tier talent who can still mostly be had for second-tier prices, but that won’t last much longer if he continues on his current trajectory. Better take advantage of a price like 34.0 while we can…
Freddie Jacobson (102.0)- Jacobson missed the cut last week so he’s really flying under the radar here, currently trading at better than 100/1. At that price, you’d be crazy not to throw a couple of bucks at the Swede. Keep in mind that prior to his missed cut at Riviera he had registered 4th-place finishes in consecutive starts (Farmers, AT&T), so I wouldn’t be too worried about the current state of his game. And while PGA National might not seem like a place that’s tailor made for a scrambler like Jacobson, Freddie’s record in this event says differently– he’s missed just one cut here in seven career starts and has finished 29th or better every time he’s made the cut. In 26 competitive rounds at the Champion Course, all but nine have been even-par or better. Considering the difficulty of the layout, it’s an impressive record indeed. Jacobson is a real threat this week and should be enthusiastically backed at his current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Kisner (1.91) vs. Zach Johnson (1.91)
Johnson is the more accomplished player and many are likely to be drawn to him in a heads-up match with Kisner, but he struggles at PGA National, missing the cut here a year ago and never finishing higher than 30th. Kisner is a Bermuda greens master who plays his best golf in the Southeast and made the cut in this event last year, his debut appearance. Recommendation: Kisner at 1.91
Paul Casey (1.91) vs. Sergio Garcia (1.91)
This is a good event for Sergio– his quality ball-striking stands out on such a demanding course, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that he’s made the cut in all five of his appearances. He’s never really contended, though, and his missed cut at last week’s Northern Trust Open doesn’t inspire much confidence. Casey, on the other hand, played very well at Riviera last week and he absolutely loves it at PGA National, recording three top-12 finishes in four career starts, including a T3 last year. Recommendation: Casey at 1.91
