5-2 BANKER LANDS ANOTHER NAP: It didn’t all work out for Daqman yesterday, but the nap came home at handsome odds, Forgiving Glance (WON 5-2). The recent best bets show a 50% strike rate, with three winning bankers among seven winners in four days:
WON 9-2 Jessbers Dream
WON 5-2 Bredon Hill Lad
WON 5-2 Forgiving Glance (banker)
WON 1-3 Paint The Clouds (banker)
WON 2-7 Listen To The Man (banker)
25-10 UP ON THE SEASON SO FAR: More about naps and bankers and ways to bet next week in the run up to Cheltenham, as promised. Meanwhile, Daqman goes into the weekend 25-10 up on Pricewise this season in feature-race bets (271-106 overall). They clash in the 1.45 Lingfield; 2.50 Newcastle Eider Chase; and 3.35 Kempton
CORK OUT FOR CHAMPAGNE AFTER THE EIDER
2.50 NEWCASTLE (EIDER CHASE) Old-timers replay the last three runnings of the Eider Chase in which they were winners (three), second and third.
But I fancy some young guns today. This was written in order of collateral-form links. So marks out of 10 are not in sequence.
6 Milborough
Had Woodford County nearly 20 lengths back in third when winning this last year but has been out of form since, with niggling problems. Could bounce back.
6 Woodford County
Now better off at the weights with Milborough, and ran well in the Welsh National after beating Nail ‘M at Exeter but well known to the handicapper in this league after a series of marathons.
7 Summery Justice
Split Milborough and Woodford County, when runner-up in this race last year. Clear chance of beating both after second in London National in December but 12 years old now, and only one winner of that age in last 20 years.
7 Shotgun Paddy
Third in the Welsh National in a bog. Unseated in last year’s Eider, when 11-2 favourite, and is carrying the same weight. He will enjoy the faster ground but it could catch out his jumping.
5 Portrait King
Sixth in the Welsh National, which was the first time he’d finished the course in three races in England since 57 lengths behind Milborough in the Eider of a year ago. Won the race in 2012.
5 Wyck Hill
The Eider winner of 2014 is also 12 now and has been placed only over hurdles since, falling early on in the race last year. Blinkers first time might help roll back the years.
4 Beforeall
Regular 3m winner at a lower level, but only 10th in Milborough’s Eider. Has been treated for a breathing problem.
6 Russe Blanc
Won the Warwick Classic (3m 5f) in January for small stable of the year so far – Kerry Lee’s – but had earlier been well beaten by Ballyculla at Bangor over shorter.
7 Ballyculla
Laid out for this and better off with Russe Blanc despite the Bangor win but form static: has moved in the ratings – hurdles and chasers – only 3lb since December, 2013.
6 Rocking Blues
Another who had been similarly static over fences since November, 2013, suddenly took off with back-to-back wins this month, being hiked a massive 25lb for his cheek. But claimer takes off 10lb of that.
7 Cultram Abbey
Well regarded as a stayer at Greystoke and hit form in January, sharpening his jumping over shorter. Lightly raced; potential to improve.
6 Lackamon
North Yorkshire National win in January was his first since April, 2013, but there’s only 3lb difference in his rating between now and then, which suggests a solid trier but one-paced.
7 Cork Citizen
Six-time Irish Points winner made solid British debut for David Pipe earlier this month. Needs to improve but the right age for a stayer to do so.
2 Glenquest
Now 13 and 51 racecourse appearances, hasn’t won a chase since December, 2012, and unlikely to add to that one here.
3 William Money
Modest form since surprise winner at Haydock last Spring after a similar shock result earlier in the year. Clearly connections have no idea when he will consent to go for the money.
4 Mysteree
Still a novice; modest improvement in the ratings since December, despite two wins out of three.
3 Presented
Consistent and beat Cultram Abbey at Ayr in January but that was when getting lumps of weight over shorter and the runner-up was flying at the finish.
VERDICT: Improving stayer with a home reputation, Cultram Abbey (15.5 offers on BETDAQ) is the ‘hidden horse’ here, according to my man in the long grass.
David Pipe has not had a great time in recent seasons but is good with stayers and may have landed lucky with Cork Citizen (11.5), an ex-Irish Pointer who has that look about him.
MUTHMIR CLASS TO MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
1.45 Lingfield William Haggas is 50% with his older horses in 2016 and Muthmir is a Group-1 performer, who beat Take Cover, Move In Time and Line Of Reason last summer.
The nearest to him was Take Cover, but he is a backend horse (never scored before July in seven years’ racing) with a bad draw. Though tipped in the papers as ‘goes well fresh’, his last three seasons have started 200.
Muthmir gives Take Cover 4lb but Take Cover gives him three years and, though this is a prep for Dubai, Muthmir started last season only a length off the winner in a Group 2.
Move In Time won his first two starts in 2013 but his yard has had a poor year so far, with only an 8% strike rate on AW. Muthmir was 3.9 this morning. That was his Kings Stand price!
SUCCESSEUR IS PRIMED FOR THE PENDIL
2.00 Kempton (Adonis Hurdle) Future Cheltenham heroes, Binocular and Zarkandar, won this for the top stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls.
But their unraced trio – Khezerabad, Pilansberg, Zubayr – face a brace of dual winners, Gibralfaro and St Saviour.
Intriguing that the horse Gibralfaro beat at Ascot, Connetable, has won since and is now only 12.5 for the Triumph Hurdle on BETDAQ. The trainer? Paul Nicholls.
In his great championship days, we’d have rushed to dutch Nicholls pair here, with the ability of the favourite known to the trainer.
Zubayr is the shorter priced of the Ditcheat duo for this race and for the Triumph.
Certainly Pilansberg looks to need time: he’s a big, strong individual who ran second on the Flat in a 1m 7f Group 2 on the Flat. World Hurdle 2018?
On a line through Berland, Gibralfaro has nothing to fear from St Saviour, but Zubayr (8.2 offers on BETDAQ) is a different matter if he’s ready.
2.35 Kempton (Pendil Novices’ Chase) Pendil, twice winner of the King George, was immortalised – and racing photography changed forever – in the great Ed Byrne picture of his prodigious leap of an open ditch.
No leap of the imagination is required to digest the recent domination of this race in Pendil’s memory by trainer Paul Nicholls: form figures 1111131141
The better ground today gives the stable’s Mon Successeur – pencilled in for the Topham Trophy at Aintree – a chance to show his precious jumping skills.
ROC AT BETDAQ 20.0 IS BIG RIVAL FOR BOY
3.35 KEMPTON Two of the last three winners – Rocky Creek and Opening Batsman – are back for more. So, too, Le Reve, last year’s runner-up, who is the one in form and the two years younger horse.
Rocky is blinkered first time after dropping back to his winning rating of last year because of modest efforts since. Paul Nicholls’ stable in better form now after poor December-January.
But, if Le Reve is the same or improved since he met Rocky Creek, then he puts the recent Ziga Boy form to the fore. He was only sixth behind that one in January.
Ziga Boy will appreciate the drying ground, as will Ruben Cotter, the second string to Paul Nicholls’ bow, who won the Silver Bowl on this course last March but hasn’t been seen since the Topham at the big Aintree meeting, and would be the first to win this on his reappearance.
The ground also favours Fox Appeal (not won at 3m in this kind of company) and Grand National preppie Hadrians Approach (needs further than 3m these days).
Champagne West, deserted by Richard Johnson, has his first chase under Rules at 3m and Astracad also steps up in trip. Astracad’s stablemate, Ballycan, is only six and could improve but will have to do so, big time.
Thomas Brown, Roc D’Apsis (Johnson for Tom George, who has won the race twice) and Viva Steve are much more the improvers at this stage, and Steve has form lines to some of the big guns in the race.
Theatre Guide is down 10lb since this time last year but never strikes you as one to trust, festooned as he is with tongue-tie and cheekpieces.
VERDICT: At the weights, Ziga Boy (8.8 on BETDAQ) should beat rising novice Thomas Brown, who is ‘reckoned’ for a Cheltenham handicap, but Roc D’Apsis looks altogether more dangerous on the day under Richard Johnson at a tasty 20.0.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20pts unless otherwise stated)
BET 6.8pts win MUTHMIR (1.45 Lingfield)
BET 2.7pts win and place ZUBAYR, and 4.3pts win (stakes saver) GIBRALFARO (2.00 Kempton)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) MON SUCCESSEUR (2.35 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 4.7pts win CORK CITIZEN, and 3.4pts win and place CULTRAM ABBEY (2.50 Newcastle)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 6.4pts win ZIGA BOY, and 5pts win and place ROC D’APSIS (3.35 Kempton)
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