BRAVO! ANOTHER DAQMAN WINNER: It was worth the wait for Bravo Zolo (WON 7-4) at Wolverhampton yesterday, after Daqman’s nap, Albahar (2nd 3-1), was beaten in the final strides at Plumpton.
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: Today Daqman continues his Cheltenham countdown by revamping his bankers and naps before the big meeting.
TOMORROW: More betting anomalies between BETDAQ and the bookies.
27 BANKERS PLACE FROM 27 STILL STANDING
Nothing wrong with that. The Daqman bankers have a 62% win strike rate in 2016 so far, with 18 winners from 29 through January and February.
There were 27 placed out of 27 still standing. And they made an overall profit of around 60 points at SP to level stakes, which could have been much more if you’d grabbed some early BETDAQ offers or used a staking plan. Or both.
Daqman records of the BETDAQ offers he took at the time he selected the 29 has them making 137 points.
Second of all, we are going to have to weed out some weak areas and have more control over which odds-on shots we back.
For example, in the list of results for the year below, you’ll find that eight of our losers were in novice events or maidens.
Those are basic errors of backing the obvious; and of backing potential instead of experience. Here are the January-February bankers:
2nd 2-5 Vyta Du Roc
2nd 1-1 Divine Spear
WON 11-8 Adrien Du Pont
WON 1-6 Garde La Victoire
WON 1-2 Pemba
2nd 5-4 The Unit
WON 5-6 Black Hercules
2nd 6-5 Steal The Scene
WON 4-6 Vroum Vroum Mag
WON 3-10 Faugheen
fell 5-6 Djakadam
3rd 5-6 Morning Run
WON 4-5 Thistlecrack
WON 1-1 Felix Yonger
WON 2-7 Pain Au Chocolat
WON 7-4 Halo Moon
2nd 11-10 Brise Vendeenne
WON 8-11 Jaleo
WON 10-11 Bristol De Mai
2nd 1-2 Sametegal
WON 1-3 Jetstream Jack
WON 4-6 Halo Moon
2nd 6-5 Dodging Bullets
p/u 11-8 Goldray
WON 2-7 Listen To The Man
3rd 8-11 Divine Spear
WON 1-3 Paint The Clouds
WON 5-2 Forgiving Glance
WON 4-9 Mendip Express
EXPECT 6/10 ODDS-ON AT FESTIVAL TO WIN
The festival will be just as hot. The Racing Post computer records tell us that the results of odds-on shots at Cheltenham in the last 20 festivals show 16 winners out of 27, which is slightly under 60%.
As with the regular bankers, I shall be looking at my own results for short-priced bets at Cheltenham festivals past, and making modifications.
This is in keeping with my promise last week to look at all sequences, so that we reveal the success rate of singles, naps, bankers, lays and feature-race tips to try to create a situation where a staking plan would keep you winning and winning.
We need to know what returns we can expect on a daily basis, weekly level, month on month and over a season from each kind of bet.
As far as bankers go, we shall stick to Cheltenham and Aintree only with novices (none elsewhere) and the banker-bet basic price will now be offers on BETDAQ at 4-5 or better; nothing less at the time of writing.
But I still have to publish the results at SP to level stakes. It’s no good my claiming 6-4 about a 4-6 winner if you read my column too late to get on. I’d be guilty of the Pricewise deception.
Interesting that our bankers registered 62%, alongside the Cheltenham rate (bet blind) of around 60% success for odds-on shots.
What I really want to winkle out at Cheltenham are several odds against winners for the banker sequence (we had three in the list above). I want to get back to my 70% strike rate and the profits of previous sequences.
THE NAPS will concentrate on bets between even money and 5-1. HIDDEN HORSES, BULL’S-EYE and TON-UP BETS will look for odds right up to 66-1. LAYS will try to win the money for those bets.
A full guide to Daqman bets will appear in the run-up to Cheltenham. It could even be possible, using a staking plan, to profit from Daqman bets every day. We’’ll look at that next.
GOING LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL AT LEICESTER
It’s not an easy day today. Although there is one that looks extremely hard to beat. Otherwise it’s a day to be tentative.
2.20 Leicester Like many of the races today, there’s not much choice. There’s plenty with questionable form.
Lord Landen got up on the line to win at Cheltenham in December hasn’t worked out overly well however, there is one that has won three times since and he finished 7th that day. It’s not a race that you can have a whole lot of confidence from but the form stacks up better than others.
I Am Colin looks to be the main danger however, his jumping was all over the place the last day when he finished second and he would need to put that right today. He’s definitely the main danger but I’m taking Lord Landen to make the most of the 5lbs weight concession.
3.50 Leicester Lockstockandbarrel is today’s Nap. He really doesn’t have much to beat and although he’s quite short in the betting, he’s going to be very hard to beat.
The danger is Abracadabra Sivola but he has a lot of question marks over him and it’s going to take a mishap for him to overturn the jolly.
4.30 Catterick Over at Catterick, the scene is quite similar. I just have the one selection there.
The seven runners are relatively closely matched on form but the one that stands out is Bespoke Lady. She hasn’t run for 556 day and that is a worry. However, off a mark of 107 she could be extremely well handicapped for this and she doesn’t have that much to beat.
I’m taking a chance with her but on form she’s head and shoulders above the others and, if fit, she should win.
4.50 Leicester Again a similar story in the finale. There is really one that we can have any confidence in and that is Troika Steppes.
Apart from Genstone Trail, the weights are very closely matched with only 3lbs separating the top four and then a stone to the Alan King runner. His last run came off a long break and it was well below par.
Troika Steppes on the other hand looks to be improving and he’s the only one with any consistency to his form and he could prove difficult to pass.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 3pts win LORD LANDEN (2.20 Leicester)
BET 7pts win (nap) LOCKSTOCKANDBARREL (3.50 Leicester)
BET 1pt win and place BESPOKE LADY (4.30 Catterick)
BET 3pts win TROIKA STEPPES (4.50 Leicester)
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