TWO 7-1 SATURDAY BIG-RACE HITS: Daqman stormed through the Pricewise races at Newbury yesterday for a 3-1 victory over his Racing Post rival, all at big odds at SP or bigger on BETDAQ in the morning. He now leads 29-12 (overall 275-108, updated from last Sunday). Here is yesterday’s trio:
WON 7-1 Shotovodka (9.0 BETDAQ)
3rd 11-1 Forest Bihan (13.5 BETDAQ)
WON 7-1 Sametegal (8.0 BETDAQ)
INVITATION WORTH 12 POINTS: ‘Join BETDAQ if you want to get 26.0 The Last Samuri for the Grand National and enjoy our trading facilities if he wins today’s trial,’ advised Daqman yesterday. Result: Samuri won and is now 14.0 on BETDAQ and as low as 12-1 with many bookmakers. But what is Daqman’s view now?
THE NAP IS AT SEDGEFIELD: There’s another National today, the Leinster National at Naas, unless you include the Cambridgeshire National at Huntingdon – that’s a bold one! – and Daqman has one bet against Pricewise and two nine-pointers at odds against on BETDAQ. The nap is at Sedgefield.
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN NEXT WEEK: Cheltenham day by day (stats and facts) a week ahead of the festival.
SAMURI HELPS PUT LAYERS TO THE SWORD
Still not convinced. If you take into account the poor quality of his last success, as revealed in this column yesterday, The Last Samuri’s improvement to win the Grimthorpe was much more than suggested by his 10-lengths victory.
However, he skewed a couple of fences during a flat spot in the race wuich would have been punished had the Town Moor jumps been the Aintree spruce. And there’s another 10 furlongs to go in the National.
But the main purpose of ante-post betting was achieved if you took the 26.0 before the race: that of getting ‘overs’, the gap today – of 12 points – between the old offers and the new, which gives you a trading position.
The nearer you get to the race, the more the overround will decrease, and it will be even smaller to you personally, if you’ve taken the offers I suggested about Cause Of Causes and The Last Samuri, so that –come raceday – you’ll be playing with an edge, depending on what trades you have done with your ‘overs.’
The next time we’ll see big market moves will be in response to Cheltenham results. You can’t expect to pick the National winner, but you could earn some more ‘overs’ by being on a trial success at the festival.
Or you could have so many horses ‘running for you’ at Aintree that it’s possible to have the whole field is on your side in an underround.
Setting up an arbitrage situation is rare; creating an underround less so but difficult; earning ‘overs’ is much easier and gives you the choice of a trade or of standing your ground in a market of your very own creation.
Next week I’ll be looking at Cheltenham ante-post. We already have bags of overs there.
But I’ll be looking through every race a week in advance to find more. This is the right time to do it when the mass of punters haven’t looked at the form, but when it’s settled down and we can relate it to the stats and facts.
EXIT CHELTENHAM: ENTER NATIONAL WINNER
4.40 Naas (Leinster National) If I were programming the Racing Post computer, I would not allow it to put a ‘D’ for distance winner by the name of a horse where that ‘D’ is in a Point not a Rules chase.
When Jim Dreaper’s Venetien De Mai won that Point, at Dromohane in April, 2014, it beat only one future winner under Rules, and that in a single novice chase, and he has been kept to a 22f maximum thus far by Dreaper.
So he could be a false favourite in this very open Leinster National. We can trust his stablemate, Goonyella, to get the trip, but in his own time.
Captain Von Trappe has won at 3m; Nickname Exit hasn’t; yet Bryan Cooper seems to prefer him of the Gordon Elliott pair, and the trainer reckons it’s ‘just what he needs.’
Gallant Oscar has got it well, and in good company at Cheltenham and Punchestown, but that’s why he’s topweight, off a mark 13lb higher than his last success. His trainer has had a very quiet season.
Andrew Lynch’s enthusiasm for Futuramic has been picked up by Pricewise, but I prefer Nickname Exit. Futuramic hasn’t won since breaking his maiden hurdle and is short in the market today purely on his second to Venetien De Mai at Down Royal.
There seems to be a knock-on effect here and either the form is pure gold or they’re all inflated by circumstances.
Nickname Exit, around 7.6 as I write, will love the ground; his stable is in form; and this is his Cheltenham. He misses the festival, so all the more reason to have him spot on for this.
3.30 Huntingdon (Cambridgeshire National) Here’s another ‘National’, and this time NONE of the runners have won over the trip but Ballyrath has several credentials.
As a Flemensfirth out of a Roselier mare, stamina should be no problem, and he’s with Nigel Twisto-Davies, who excels with stayers.
3.50 Sedgefield David Pipe restored some faith in his ability yesterday; it was just like the old times at Pond House when Shotovodka won as he should at that weight.
Now we can play up the Pipe winnings with odds against hat-trick seeking raider Bella, thanks to Libby Mae making the price in a two-horse race.
But which of two nine-pointers to nap? Ballyrath or Bella. Never be frightened of one horse; so Bella is taken in the two-horse race.
RODEO RACE EXPOSES HIDDEN HORSE
My ‘hidden horses’ are doing well at big prices. But them Racing Post racereaders are also doing well; too well!
I was hoping that my Lingfield nap of yesterday, Abe Lincoln, would remain comparatively hidden after being hampered out of the race.
I say ‘comparatively’ because he started favourite at 11-4.
But that was a very big price. My man in the long grass tells me should have been 4-11, so highly is he regarded at home.
But the racereaders spotted that he was hampered out of the race, when absolutely cantering. What they didn’t say was that he caused a scrum earlier when trying to get a better position.
Whatever.. the situation is that Lincoln’s languid strides were seen and duly noted, and the manner of his exit from contention, too. We need a stronger race now to get a price, or we need be bold and go banker, all in.
I watched the race three times and wonder why ever we bet at Lingfield at all over such a trip, so bad was the barging; Lincoln was having to do battle back in the days of bareback rodeo! You could run the race 10 times and get 10 different results.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 unless stated)
BET 9pts win BALLYRATH (3.30 Huntingdon)
BET 9pts win (nap) BELLA (3.50 Sedgefield)
BET (to win 30 points): 4.5pts win NICKNAME EXIT (4.40 Naas)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble the three.
£25 IN FREE BETS
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