CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN BEGINS: Daqman weighs up the ‘overs’ gained in his ante-post bets so far, as he prepares a day-by-day (one week in advance) look at the Cheltenham stats and facts, starting tomorrow until Friday.
12.5 AND 10.0 OUTSIDERS TODAY: For what he calls the bottom-of-the-barrel racing today, Daqman finds outsiders at 12.5, 10.0 and 7.0 which could be placed, could be forecast bets with better-fancied horses.. could even be winners!
SIX LAND THE CHELTENHAM ‘OVERS’ JACKPOT
Six out of nine ain’t bad! That’s how many Daqman ante-post punts have survived as viable bets; most importantly they have shortened up, giving us plenty of ‘overs’ to play with.
But we’re hoping to add another one – or two or three – as the stats and facts are explored one week in advance of each day (so tomorrow’s will be for the Tuesday, opening day).
Here is our ante-post update for Tuesday 15th to Friday 18th March at Cheltenham, in running order:
36.0 Old Guard (win 100, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham, Tuesday) now 18.0
6.0 Vroum Vroum Mag (win 50, Mares Hurdle, Cheltenham, Tuesday) now 3.85 (also 9.8, win 50 Ryanair Chase, Thursday, now 68.0)
9.8 Roi Des Francs (win 50, NH Chase, Cheltenham, Tuesday) now 9.5
16.6 Vibrato Valtat (win 50, Champion Chase, Cheltenham, Wednesday) now NQ
9.3 Bristol De Mai (win 50, JLT Chase, Cheltenham, Thursday), now 5.0
13.5 Road To Riches (win 50, Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham, Thursday) now 5.7
16-1 Martello Tower (win 100, World Hurdle, Cheltenham, with Ladbrokes, Thursday) now 29.0
11.0 Cause Of Causes (win 100, Kim Muir Chase, Cheltenham, Thursday) now 8.4
12.6 Saphir Du Rheu (win 50, Cheltenham Gold Cup, Friday) now NQ
THE FATE OF THE FESTIVAL FAVOURITES
The stats and facts for each day will be looking for betting opportunities, solid punting areas and hidden-horse races, where disguised form wins and plot horses land the big prizes for top owners.
Much of the Press gossip will be about Willie Mullins chances of winning with a series of odds-on shots so, as a taster, here are one or two areas where favourites do well. And don’t.
Best race for favourites: Three out of three Arkle Chase odds-on hot-pots in the last 20 years have won: Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Un De Sceaux.
Only two winners of the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle in 30 years were outside the first six in the betting at SP.
Worst race for favourites: Fourteen of the last 18 horses to start at 3-1 or less all lost the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
In the last 11 years, two odds on shots for the Champion Chase have won, but in the same period three have been beaten, finishing second, fourth and – not finishing – unseated rider.
* Look out for my Cheltenham-Tuesday survey tomorrow on all aspects of each race, as we try to prise open another ante-post oyster or two.
DAY OF THE 40-MINUTE FORECASTS..
4.10 Lingfield The racing is from the bottom of the barrel, but there might be an edge in this one. If Racing Post racereaders are right, Just Bill is not in love with soft ground, and his 3.65 this morning looks mean.
Take him out of the equation in a 109% BETDAQ orange – lay him if you will – and we’re in the region of an 80 underround, and can back everything else in the race.
Bagging Turf (3.00) looks the one most likely to. But I couldn’t resist a pound on Tara Well at 12.5 (try a forecast with Ladbrokes), with Robin Dickin just having landed two winners from four.
She should step up on her bumper form, switched to hurdling as a Point winner. But this Kayf Tara mare can be expected to come into her own when handicapping over further.
There are three races run within 40 minutes, which all have a decent outsider. The two others are:
4.30 Southwell The hidden horse in this one – or rather hidden mare – may be Solstice Dawn (7.0 offers), who was leading her races over further when last seen nearly a year ago.
She usually manages a place, and may be the one to couple with Definitely Better, who is definitely better than the bare form, with Tom George on a hat-trick still standing, after two winners at the weekend.
4.50 Wolverhampton The one to improve here, with his stable flying, is the Racing Post joint-top rating, Castilo del Diablo (10.0 in the BETDAQ orange, at time of writing).
The only other class-2 winners in the field are First Mohican and Masterpayer. They met at Lingfield when First Mohican (4.7 offers look tasty) beat Masterpayer and Winterlude, too. He can take their scalps again.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 7pts win (nap) BAGGING TURF, and 1pt win and place TARA WELL (4.10 Lingfield)
BET 6pts win DEFINITELY BETTER, and 1pt win and place SOLSTICE DAWN (4.30 Southwell)
BET 5pts win FIRST MOHICAN, and 1pt win and place CASTILO DEL DIABLO (4.50 Wolverhampton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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