DEFINITELY NO BETTER TIPSTER: Daqman insisted that Definitely Better at Southwell yesterday was definitely better than the bare form-figures of PPP0034. Definitely Better (WON 15-8) scored very definitely by 7 lengths, 19 lengths and 80. There’s no better tipster than Daqman!
25.0 AND 9.8 FOR CHELTENHAM: Today Daqman starts his day-by-day guide to Cheltenham one week in advance and finds ante-post bets beckoning on BETDAQ at 25.0 and 9.8.
DOUVAIN AN AMAZING ATHLETE FOR HIS SIZE
1.30 Cheltenhan, Tuesday (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) Horses aged five and six have won this 12 times this century, the last three for Willie Mullins, including Douvan (Arkle) and Vautour (Champion Chase), which are strongly fancied again this year for their respective new targets.
Mullins, with Min and Yorkhill, and Nicky Henderson, with Altior and Buveur d’Air, are clear in the Supreme market.
SPOTLIGHT: Min Against Min is that she hasn’t run for 66 days: 14 of the last 15 Supreme winners had run within 45 days. In fact, none of the top four have done so, though Buveur d’Air is just one day outside the limit.
Min has only ever raced on soft-heavy, but the trainer thinks he’ll be an even better horse on better ground, and says that, on the last day at Punchestown, he jumped the last like a fresh horse.
2.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Chase) Three out of three Arkle Chase odds-on hot-pots in the last 20 years have won: Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Un De Sceaux.
But the last two of those have come in a cluster of three odds-on winners in the last four seasons and, in fact, every favourite failed for eight years between 2004 and 2011, and all told only five favourites have won in the last 18 years.
SPOTLIGHT: Douvan Unbeaten in eight starts since his debut, winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival on good to soft.
A big, docile horse but immensely powerful, and ‘jumps fantastic; an amazing athlete for one of his size’ (Ruby Walsh).
Some 14 of the last 16 winners had an official rating of 142 or more. Douvan’s is 161. Nearest to him: Vaniteux 152.
KRUZHLININ TO BENEFIT FROM ULTIMA CUT
2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Ultima Handicap) Out Sam looks a false favourite at this stage. He is number 72 on the card, so an ante-post bet would be folly, and he has several other engagements, with possibly the novices’ handicap chase his wisest move (see below).
Holywell (14), Kruzhlinin (32) and Doctor Harper (54), who are next in the betting have a much better chance of getting in but Holywell, who is set to carry 11st 2lb – maybe more if any above him drop out – would have to defy the stats: 12 of the last 15 winners carried less than 11st.
SPOTLIGHT: Kruzhlinin Could go very well in this at a price likely to be shorter than current offers of 9.8 if, as seems likely, one or two around him in the betting are eliminated.
A handy 23.0 for the Grand National, which also has to be taken if you envisage a good result at Cheltenham. He ran an excellent race in the big ’un at Aintree in 2014, despite being badly hampered early on.
Switched from Donald McCain to master trainer Philip Hobbs, who is enjoying a terrific handicap season.
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) This column already has an outsider in this in Old Guard and, with the favourite Annie Power, needing to be supplemented, I’ll hang fire until we know for certain.
Focus is on Nicky Henderson (particularly good with five-year-olds) and the Irish: they’ve shared 13 of the last 17 Champion Hurdles!
4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) We’re on Vroum Vroum Mag, odds on this morning with two big bookies, at offers of 6.0.
Her trainer, Willie Mullins, has won the last seven of these, mainly due to Quevega (six in a row, starting at the age of five).
4.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday (National Hunt Chase) Another race; another Mullins. His seven-year-old, Roi Des Francs, already our ante-post choice, got a boost on Sunday when his Fairyhouse runner-up, Sub Lieutenant, was impressive at Naas.
Steer clear of England’s champion, Paul Nicholls: despite 15 starters, 11 at the forefront of the market, he’s managed only a couple of places.
YOU CAN GET DOUBLE THE ODDS ABOUT SAM
5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Cheltenham Novices’ Handicap Chase) Formerly the Jewson, and very tricky stuff, with most winners having scored only once and several well laid out for this by such as Jonjo O’Neill (hasn’t he been quiet this season!)
SPOTLIGHT: Seven-year-olds have the best record and guess who, of that age group, is spotted lurking at 25.0 in the BETDAQ orange? None other than Out Sam.
If he’s no chance of getting in the Ultima (2.50, see above), and the RSA is a tall order, this will be his race and, sure enough, the bookies have him joint-second favourite at 12-1.
Double the odds on BETDAQ are just begging to be taken. The Sams seem to be the vogue right now, after Sametegal and Sam’s Adventure both scored on Saturday. Out Sam is in! For a mere two points he is, anyway.
TODAY IS A SONNY DAY AT EXETER..
2.35 Exeter Sonny The One, a Taunton handicap winner over 2m 3f, was asked to drop of seven furlongs, because taking in a novice chase at the same track three weeks later looked a gift.
But it’s rarely plain sailing in racing and his jockey was unable to use the rudder or set up full sail. The saddle slipped and the rider lost his irons, though still finished second.
Dropped-in-class today, but Minella On Line hasn’t won for two years (and that, a hurdle race). Epic Warrior has also found the leap from hurdles to fences a difficult task.
So Dancing Shadow could be Sonny’s main concern: he’s looked one-paced but his trainer, Victor Dartnall, has struggled this season and is only now finding some form (current figures 1012).
3.30 Southwell (Ladbrokes Handicap) Captain Revelation beat ‘nothing’ well last week, and the handicapper hasn’t moved him. He’s kept him hovering between 75 and 80 since September, 2014, so still has to show some improvement (always expected at the age of four but no sign yet).
The stable of Scott Dixon is missing strike badly with a string of seconds, thirds and fourths (in fact, seven since March 2).
But Boots And Spurs ought to follow up on his CD win of five days ago since, though raised 5lb, he actually drops a grade here.
Dixon should know the score with Captain Revelation. His other runner in this, Best Tamayuz, ran second to him on the same Southwell card five days ago.
3.40 Exeter It’s hard to match Harry Fry’s recent run of 1111430021 and the drying ground will suit his Whataknight, whose close second in a class-3 a handicap on the last day suggests that dropping back to a class-4 novice event should be eazy-peazy.
4.30 Southwell Bapak Bangsawa, second in a big field for this race a year ago, is a CD winner twice including back from a break in December. Has had another holiday and, freshened up again, looks the win-and-place bet of the day at 11.5 in an eight-runner race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for today; to win 50 or 100 ante-post)
BET 9pts win (nap) SONNY THE ONE (2.35 Exeter)
BET 6pts win BOOTS AND SPURS and 1pt win BEST TAMAYUZ (3.30 Southwell)
BET 1.5pts win and place BAPAK BANGSAWAN (4.30 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble SONNY THE ONE (2.35 Exeter), BOOTS AND SPURS (3.30 Southwell) and WHATAKNIGHT (3.40 Exeter)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 50): 5.6pts win: KRUZHLININ (2.50 Cheltenham, Tuesday)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 50): 2pts win OUT SAM (5.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 100): 4.5pts win KRUZHLININ (Grand National, Liverpool, April 9).
£25 IN FREE BETS
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