VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP: The Florida Swing rolls on this week with the Valspar Championship, an event that has steadily grown in prestige over the past few years thanks in large part to the venue– Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course, a challenging yet straightforward layout that has drawn rave reviews from competitors.
Filled with tree-lined doglegs and subtle elevation changes, the Copperhead Course is a true tee-to-green test that is extremely penal without being hokey or contrived. It’s a par-71 that stretches out over 7,300 yards and features five par-3s, with each one measuring 195 yards or more. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that long-iron play has been a key marker for success in this tournament– seven of the last 11 winners have finished the season ranked 33rd or better in Proximity from 200+ yards, with 10 of 11 finishing 80th or better (h/t @FantasyGolfMan). In other words, if someone is worse than Tour-average with his long irons/hybrids, he probably isn’t winning this week (proximity stats found here).
World number one Jordan Spieth outlasted Patrick Reed and Sean O’Hair in a playoff last year and he’s back to defend his title, but a frighteningly short price (6.6) is sure to scare off all but the most committed Spieth partisans. Other names atop BETDAQ’s win market include Henrik Stenson (17.0), who finished solo 4th here last year in his debut appearance, and Danny Willett (24.0), an ascendant star who is coming off a strong showing at Doral last week. You could make a persuasive case for each of those guys, obviously, but I’ve decided to go in a different direction this week. Here are my selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jason Dufner (30.0)- Dufner finally seems to be past his prolonged slump, claiming a victory at the CareerBuilder Challenge six weeks ago and making nine cuts in his last ten starts overall. His final-round 68 at last week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship propelled him to an 11th-place finish and a cool $148,000, so he’s surely feeling pretty good about himself as he returns to a place where he’s had plenty of success in the past. And considering Dufner’s prowess with his mid and long irons, nothing about his record in this event– five top-25s and a top-10 in eight career appearances– should strike you as unusual. The man is a ball-striking machine, and the Copperhead Course fits him to a T. Look for a strong performance out of Dufner this week.
Webb Simpson (58.0)- Well it’s been a month since we’ve last seen Simpson on the golf course, but he was playing well at the time, collecting top-20 finishes in each of his last three events. His ball-striking stats are spectacular this year– 4th on Tour in Greens in Regulation, 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, 19th in Par-3 scoring, and 21st in Proximity from 200+ yards. All of that matters at the Copperhead Course, and indeed Simpson has performed very well here in the past, finishing runner-up in 2011 and notching three other top-20 finishes in six career starts. The putting is always a bit of a question mark, but if Simpson gets it rolling this week he’ll have as good a chance as anyone to win. A great value at the current price..
Steve Stricker (160.0)- Stricker doesn’t play a full schedule anymore and he’s clearly past his physical prime at age 49, but he’s still a dangerous player who knows how to pick his spots, choosing only the courses that suit his game. The Copperhead Course is just such a layout– a thinking man’s design that can’t be overpowered and hasn’t changed much through the years. Stricker’s last appearance in this event was way back in 2010, but his record– 8th in ’10, 4th in ’09, 14th in ’08– speaks for itself. He hasn’t teed it up since Riviera last month, but he finished 11th there so there’s nothing to suggest that his game isn’t in good shape. At a price like 160.0, Stricker is one of my favorite bets on the board this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Louis Oosthuizen (1.86) vs. Patrick Reed (1.86)
Oosthuizen has been playing well but his record in this event is horrendous, as he’s missed the cut in each of the past three years. Reed, on the other hand, nearly won this tournament last year before coming up short in a 3-man playoff. I know Reed hasn’t done anything spectacular since his 6th-place showing at Pebble Beach, but I think he’s a good bet to beat a guy who clearly has not yet figured out the best way to get around the Copperhead Course. Recommendation: Reed at 1.86
K.J. Choi (1.82) vs. Gary Woodland (1.91)
Choi is a 2-time winner of this event but his last title came way back in 2006, when the 45-year old South Korean was still at his physical peak. Woodland is a former champion here as well (2011) and, unlike Choi, he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. The big-hitting Woodland has now made seven straight cuts and has firmly established himself as one of the best ball-strikers on Tour, ranking 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. Recommendation: Woodland at 1.91
