DON’T LET THEM STEAL YOUR MONEY: Today’s the day the penny drops for thousands of punters as they openly compare the offers: Bookmaker v BETDAQ. Daqman’s verdict: ‘Don’t let them steal your money.’ Check out the site for offers and specials that will put you ahead of the game.
INCREDIBLE VALUE ON BETDAQ: Set against the race title in Daqman’s race-by-race analysis today is the total of offers in the BETDAQ orange at the time he chose his tips (‘incredible value’, he says): obviously the nearer you are to 100% the better (a level playing field of 100 bet and 100 paid out). Compare the same races with last year’s Total SP:
BETDAQ (today): 100, 100, 103, 101, 103, 102, 103
TOTAL SP (last year): 115, 115, 130, 117, 123, 122, 130
HERE’S THE DAQMAN LINE-UP: Daqman starts the meeting with his sequence bets showing the following results:
BANKER NAPS: Four out of four (19 from the last 28)
CHALLENGE: Daqman 30, Pricewise 12 (overall 276-108)
LAYS: 10 out of 12 (record 45 from the last 50)
CHELTENHAM TRENDING: DAQ MULTIPLES
THE IRISH have dominated Cheltenham in the last 20 years, increasing their hold on the prizes, winning as many races in the last five as in the previous nine.
In three seasons since 2013, some 62 out of 108 races have gone to horses from the first three in the betting.
These stats add together like this: more and better Irish horses winning more races, with more and more betting money going on them.
Where the Irish dominate is with non-handicaps, producing champions to reign for several seasons, pulling in the huge wad of punters’ cash, with 66% of the front three in the SP market winning.
Daq Multiples utilising this 2-1 chance of winning with the favourites in the 48 non-handicaps are an essential tool of the modern Cheltenham punter.
SUPREME: MIN WALKS INTO THE PAVILION!
1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) 100%
POSITIVES: Ireland has won 10 out of 15 and Willie Mullins runs three in his bid for a four-timer, after a hat-trick with plunge horses at 5-1, 7-2 and 2-1. It’s five-year-olds 5, six-year-olds 4 in the decade.
Winners had three hurdles runs minimum but no more than five, and had already won two races; bred for stamina, often to become top-class chasers; 10 out of 14 had raced in bumpers.
NEGATIVES: Only one winner in 15 years had been absent longer than 45 days, which knocks eight of the 14 runners, notably Min (66 days), Silver Concorde and Supasundae (79 each), Altior (80), Mister Miyagi (110) and Penglai Pavilion (123).
FAVOURITE: Willie Mullins’ Min (same sire as Douvan) does his best work at home on good ground, but is not a horse that’s been catching pigeons on the gallops.
Restricted to soft-heavy going, his CV includes an 11 lengths defeat of Naas Grade-2 winner, Ball d’Arc, at Punchestown, and the easy way he’s gone clear of his rivals has been impressive.
FORM ALTERNATIVE: Nicky Henderson has spent 24 years trying to win this race again since Flown (1992): his Altior has done all he’s asked to do and is a big muscular sort who likes top of the ground; Buveur d’Air is still learning and this may come a bit soon.
Charbel ran second to Neptune favourite Yanworth in the Ascot trial for this. Supasundae, who beat Yanworth in a bumper last year, has a mind of his own but hammered November Handicap winner, Silver Concorde, at Leopardstown.
HIDDEN HORSES: Runaway winner in the summer, Penglai Pavilion spent the autumn toughening up and gaining valuable experience at Cheltenham over a longer distance. Travels well in his races.
BETDAQ VERDICT: Yorkhill had the best form of the race, yet Willie Mullins saddles Min instead. What does he know that I don’t? (that’s a rhetorical question).
Since it will be fast and furious – and Nicky Henderson can’t get it right (which deletes the second and third favourites) – I shall attack the layers for allowing 40.0 Penglai Pavilion, whom I would rate no worse than the 16.0 bar the top three.
Using the bonus plan from my article on Sunday, I shall keep the stake I would need to win my usual win-50 at 16.0 and have the full 3.3pts on Penglai Pavilion at 40.0, which will give me a profit of 128pts.
ARKLE: DOUVAN LOOKS AHEAD OF THE GAME
2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Chase) 100%
POSITIVES: Every favourite failed for eight years until three odds-on winners in the last four seasons for Willie Mullins (Douvan today) and Nicky Henderson (Vaniteux).
NEGATIVES: Small fields were set by the Henderson dominants, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre, and Douvan has done the same disservice to punters by frightening away much of the potential opposition.
FAVOURITE: Unbeaten in eight starts since his debut, winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival on good to soft, the big and powerful Douvan is still only six, same age as Sprinter Sacre when he took his Arkle.
FORM ALTERNATIVE The last nine winners had won or been placed over 19f: ticking that box are only Aso, The Game Changer and Vaniteux.
Vaniteux got within a neck of Ar Mad at Kempton over Christmas after that one had slammed Thursday’s JLT favourite, Bristol de Mai, 10 lengths at Sandown.
HIDDEN HORSES: The Game Changer is 3lb superior to Vaniteux in the official ratings. Hasn’t been seen since the autumn, as he is very much a good-ground horse.
BETDAQ VERDICT: Incredible value! For the second race running, the BETDAQ orange is almost dead on 100% this morning.
I shall have a bit of 19.0 The Game Changer, which is too big. He’ll be my Ladbrokes forecast with Douvan, who is the Daq Multiples banker.
29.0 BALLYKAN IS IMPROVING ALL THE TIME
2.50 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase) 103%
NEGATIVES: The first handicap, it has had winners at 28-1, 33-1 and 50-1 since 2007, and a massive rise in the weights today lets in some unexposed youngsters in the second half of the handicap.
The raising of the weights carries Holywell 8lb higher than his winning rating in 2014 and he’s 11lb up in the weights.
He’s won his handicaps off 10-13 or less, and trainer Jonjo O’Neill continues in poor form. Holywell is what they used to call a ‘twicer’ (i.e. two ways of running): he might win if he wants to.
The 11st 7lb means it’s now a tougher test for our ante-post bet, Kruzhlinin, whom we decided to follow en route to the Grand National.
Carole’s Destrier, saved for this by Neil Mulholland after a wind op, in the hope of better ground, gets his wish but gets a nasty weight now, too.
Stablemate The Young Master, is a CD winner, but has 11st 5lb, despite Sam Waley-Cohen’s claim.
Un temps Pour Tout has been favourite three races in a row without winning and has to prove something now.
POSITIVES: Nine out of 10 winners in the decade carried 11st 3lb or less; 12 out of the last 15 less than 11st.
In-form master-trainer of stamina horses, Nigel Twiston-Davies has his own Aintree contender, Double Ross, off 11st 9lb, but no 150-plus rated horse has won this since 1983.
However, the revised handicap means that Twiston has managed to slip Algernon Pazham and Ballykan in with featherweights.
Ballykan is a really nice chasing sort from a good family and is well in now with the winner, Theatre Guide (raised 11lb), on his Grade-3 fourth at Kempton. Only six and improving all the time. Theatre Guide is fancied by Colin Tizzard so this one must be, too.
FAVOURITE: I backed Out Sam for the novices’ handicap at the end of the day because he was number 72 in this Ultima card and I didn’t think he’d get in. It just shows how much entry fodder is wasted in the battle of Prestbury.
Old Sam’s trainer, Warren Greatrex, runs Aloomomo instead in the last. It’s an amazing feat for a small yard to have two favourites on this card against the might of Mullins and Nicholls but I find one is too inexperienced and the other too exposed.
FORM ALTERNATIVE: Is this Jonjo O’Neill’s turning point? He’s won three of the last seven Ultimas, and one of his few recent winners has been Beg To Differ, who misses the Midlands National for this.
A first-time visor probably won him the race on the last day at Sandown. It’s cost him a 10lb rise but sits him fairly handy off 11st 2lb. Snag is his jumping: he usually makes a mistake or two.
Southfield Theatre has run well at the festival two years running but comes back after a long absence from a serious injury.
HIDDEN HORSES: Band Of Blood, fourth for Mouse Morris in the Irish Grand National last April, with bold front-running and jumping, ran well in the Grimthorpe after a wind op.
New trainer, Dr Richard Newland, has him blinkered first time today. It will be a true turn-up if he wins because Newland didn’t expect the horse to get in!.
BETDAQ VERDICT: Ballykan at 29.0, Band Of Blood at 30.0 are the win-and-place bets from where the winners come form in the handicap but I am hopeful that Kruzhlinin can enhance his Grand National chances.
THE TOP-RATED HORSE IS 23.0 ON BETDAQ
3.30 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) 101%
POSITIVES: Rooster Booster, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq, Brave Inca and Hurricane Fly have all won this at Annie Power’s age or more, and Nicky Henderson (particularly good with five-year-olds) and the Irish have shared 13 of the last 17 Champion Hurdles!
NEGATIVES: Now they share EIGHT of the 13 runners in this strangest of Champion Hurdles, which has in Annie Power a favourite from virtually another discipline, 18-24 furlongs, mainly against her own sex, and her chosen engagement at the festival was 3m!
That comes under this heading because multiple entries a real negative for punters trying to find the winner. And it reveals what an open race it is this year.
The ratings provie it: the last five Champions have been 165-172. The highest rated in today’s race is 163 Camping Ground who, like Annie Power, is a stamina horse, winning at 20f.
FAVOURITE: Annie Power seemed to be the new Quevega but she fell at the last with that race, the Mares Hurdle, at her mercy last year and Willie Mullins now relies on Vroum Vroum Mag.
What could beat her is the drying ground, not because she can’t handle it, but because it will be all the more difficult to bring her stamina into play.
FORM ALTERNATIVE: By the same token of age in my Positives, we can’t rule out The New One, said to be back to his best, if not better.
But this is a race in which you can make the stats speak your way, whatever your opinion, and you could say that nine of the last 10 winners have been aged between five and seven.
And that’s the way I bet: I always find on the side of the improving youngster. It pays off time and again. And, with the horses all exposed, we have the handicapper on our side.
The ratings are incredibly tight: 163 Camping Ground, 162 Annie Power, 161 The New One, Nichols Canyon and My Tent Or Yours, 159 Identity Thief.
HIDDEN HORSES: There are no hidden horses in a race like this. There is no hiding place at this level.
BETDAQ VERDICT Camping Ground we know will match Annie Power for stamina and is here top-rated over her, yet is 23.0 to her 3.65 in the BETDAQ orange as I write.
VROUM VROUM FIRST BANKER OF THE WEEK
4.10 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) 103%
FORM! NO ALTERNATIVE: I’m cutting to the chase. No donuts. More a drag race, with a super steed holding back the throttle.. then Vroum Vroum!
BETDAQ VERDICT: This column stepped in at 6.0 when I heard from my man in the long grass that Annie Power would switch to the Champion Hurdle, with every confidence that Vrom Vroum Mag was the new Quevega in this for Willie Mullins. The value has gone.. and we got it!
DEFINITLY A BET AT 17.5 IN THE ORANGE
4.50 Cheltenham (National Hunt Chase) 102%
NEGATIVE: We had last year’s winner, Cause Of Causes at 44.0 on BETDAQ and the negative is my failure to find anything similar in the ante-post market this time around. Sorry about that.
Remember this race is for amateur riders and they really do need something of the quality of Cause Of Causes under them.
Steer clear of champion trainer, Paul Nicholls: despite 15 starters, 11 at the forefront of the market, he’s managed only a couple of places.
POSITIVE: We need a horse aged seven or eight, with success already at 3m plus on his CV, and bred for stamina.
FAVOURITE: Noble Endeavour (from the Cause Of Causes stable) Minella Rocco (can we trust out-of-form Jonjo O’Neill?) and Southfield Royale (perhaps a year too soon for him) are all around 8.5.
BETDAQ VERDICT: Blaklion and Black Hercules have been talking horses for this festival and Definitly Red (17.5 on BETDAQ as I write) has run up to both.
Trainer Brian Ellison is in fantastic form and what better very professional amateur than Sam Waley-Cohen to do the steering.
SHUFFLE THE PACK OF CRAZY BETDAQ PRICES
5.30 Cheltenham Novices’ Handicap Chase 103%
NEGATIVE: Formerly the Jewson, and very tricky stuff, trying to guess which novices will improve (all are officially rated 136 to 140, so no help there) and are able to act at Cheltenham.
POSITIVE Horses aged six and seven (8 out of 10), with three to five runs over fences (8 out of 10), a distance winner (7 out of 10) from the first five in the betting at SP (7 out of 10).
Trainers in form with qualifiers: Harry Fry (Thomas Brown), Willie Mullins (McKinley), Tom George (Double Shuffle) and Paul Nicholls (Katgary). This morning they fit all the stats except the market, which will be of your making!
FAVOURITE: Aloomomo is from the in-form Warren Greatrex yard (currently two wins out of four) and a distance winner but seems well exposed after eight chases, albeit he carries an 11lb hike for scoring at Newbury (third, fourth and fifth have won since).
FORM ALTERNATIVE: Willow’s Saviour has won two out of three after a long lay-off and his yard is doing well, but a nine-year-old belongs more in a veterans’ race. It would be an indictment of these youngsters if he won it.
Thomas Brown is dropped in trip, wears blinkers, and looks a trade horse for the race (opening position 17.0 on BETDAQ), seemingly with the plan to go off in front. Will he stay there?
HIDDEN HORES Double Shuffle met some quality horses before getting off the mark at the third attempt in December, skipping the heavy winter ground to wait for the better surface here.
Javert jumped really well at Doncaster and has also been given a holiday from the January-February mud. He’s not officially a distance winner but Doncaster was 19f and he’s by Kayf Tara, so any advance on that trip should see further improvement.
BETDAQ VERDICT: On a drying day that will suit them both, Double Shuffle (at 12.0) and Javert (17.0) both have the scope for the improvement needed in this race.
Willie Mullins doesn’t win handicaps but McKinley has returned to form at home and 18.5 is crazy price. But they’re all crazy offers on BETDAQ today, adding up to between 100 and 103%.
Let’s see what the bookies do, with a Total SP percentages check which I will publish tomorrow.
DAQMAN BETS (stakes as stated)
1.30 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) at Value Bonus stake (wins 122): 3.3pts win and place PENGLAI PAVILION, plus (to win 30) 12pts win MIN.
2.10 Cheltenham
BET (to win 20 place) 1pt win and 5pts place THE GAME CHANGER. Daq Multiples banker DOUVAN.
2.50 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 1.75pts win and place on each BALLYKAN and BAND OF BLOOD, plus ante-post already KRUZHLININ (to win 50) at 9.8
LAY for a place: OUT SAM
3.30 Cheltenham
BET (to win 30): 1.36pts win and place CAMPING GROUND
Ante-post already lost 2.8pts Old Guard
4.10 Cheltenham
Ante-post already VROUM VROUM MAG (banker nap to win 50) at 6.0
4.50 Cheltenham
BET (to win 30 points): 1.8pts win and place DEFINITLY RED (4.50 Cheltenham)
Ante-post already lost 5.5pts Roi Des Francs
5.30 Cheltenham
BET (to win 50): 2.7pts win and place DOUBLE SHUFFLE, 1.8pts win and place JAVERT, 1.7pts win and place McKINLEY.
Ante-post already lost 2pts Out Sam
DAQ MULTIPLES (Willie Mullins treble): 3pts win treble Min (1.30 Cheltenham), Douvan (2.10 Cheltenham) and Vroum Vroum Mag (4.10 Cheltenham)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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