WEDNESDAY CHELTENHAM: Our friends at ProForm landed a winning back of the day with Altior yesterday but suffered a reverse later when the lay also won. We’re back for day two. Which horses are the stats pointing towards backing and laying on BETDAQ?
Positives:
1-30 Neptune Novices Hurdle: Favourite backers will be pleased to see that Alan King and Barry Geraghty have a 50% strike rate winning on 8 of the 16 times they’ve teamed up. Yanworth is trading around 2.4.
Mullins and Walsh improved their strike rate over hurldes at Cheltenham yesterday with two winners, and are now up to 30%. Yorkhill is trading around 3.55, and he could be a shade of value if you don’t fancy the favourite.
2-10 RSA Chase: Barry Geraghty’s strike rate at Cheltenham over fences is 22% from a sample of over 100. Nearly 5 above the expected winners, he must be doing something right! He rides the favourite More Of That here, currently trading around 2.84.
Nicky Henderson and Daryl Jacob have a 27% strike team when they team up, and Vyta Du Roc is 12.0. For those on No More Heroes, Gordon Elliott and Bryan Cooper have a 21% strike rate together, however they’ve had below their expected winners while Bryan Cooper has had 2 winners from 23 rides over fences here.
2-50 Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle: Some decent Trainer/Jockey strike rate combo’s in this race, and you should check them all out on ProForm on the BETDAQ desktop/mobile. Noel Meade and Mark Walsh have a 24% strike rate together, and while this may not be a high as some others, it is more than two winners above expected. They team up with Waxies Dargle, who could out-run odds of 40.0.
Willie Mullins and Barry Geraghty’s strike rate together is 27%, a small sample, netting 3 winners from 11 runners. Blazer has been well supported and talked about in the lead up to this, and is currently 18.0.
While Nico De Boinville boosted his Cheltenham record yesterday, he now has a 33% strike rate over hurdles here, way above expected with 7 winners (expected was 2.5), he rides Hunters Hoof at 21.0.
3-30 Champion Chase: Willie Mullins and Paul Townend have a 25% strike rate when they team up, and they have won above their expected races, so you wouldn’t let Townend being jocked up ever put you off, he rides Felix Younger is 19.5.
Willie Mullins is obviously is good form recent too, he had a treble yesterday, and in the last 14 days he’s had above the expected winners factoring in odds, impressive given nearly all his are favourites! There will be no excuses for Un De Sceaux, currently 1.81.
4-10 Cross Country Race: Obviously this is a tricky race to weigh up stats wise! An obvious place to start is Enda Bolger and Nina Carberry – they have a 31% strike rate, winning nearly 5 above expected. Josies Orders has also won 2 from 2 around this distance, and 2 from 3 at Cheltenham. There is a slight negative about Josies Orders too though, and that’s in the negatives below.
4-50 Fred Winter Hurdle: Harry Cobden has won 2 of his 5 rides at Cheltenham, a small sample, however when teaming up with Michael Blake he’s won 4 of 10. So maybe Doubly Clever can our-run odds of 60.0+.
Whittington and Sheehan also have good stats, a healthy strike rate of 33%, above expected. They team up with Duke Of Medina at 50.0.
5-30 Champion Bumper: Nigel Twiston-Davies is in good form at the moment, with nearly double his expected winner in the last 14 days. He has the favourite here, Ballyandy at 8.8.
Obviously Willie and Patrick Mullins strike rate is eye-catching too, 35%, they team up with Avenir Dune Vie at 11.5.
Negatives:
1-30 Neptune Novices Hurdle: Dan Skelton’s form continues to be a worry, he hasn’t had a winner in the last 14 days from 21 runners, when they expected was over 5. His horses haven’t been running terrible, and he’s had a few places, but as it was yesterday, something to keep an eye on. He has two outsiders here, Welsh Shadow and Itsafreebee, both around 50.0
2-10 RSA Chase: As mentioned above, ‘Gordon Elliott and Bryan Cooper have a 21% strike rate together, however they’ve had below their expected winners while Bryan Cooper has had 2 winners from 23 rides over fences here.’ Cooper’s record, although a fairly small sample, would have to be a slight negative – but nothing major.
Brian Hughes has a worse record, winning only 1 from 31, he rides Seeyouatmidnight, trading around 13.5.
2-50 Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle: Jamie Moore has yet to have success over hurdles at Cheltenham from 29 rides. His mount here is Baron Alco, currently 24.0.
While Richard Johnson has a pretty decent record over fences at Cheltenham, his record over hurdles isn’t great. He has a 9% strike rate from 132 rides, winning below the expected. Rock The Kasbah is 14.0.
3-30 Champion Chase: While Nico De Boinville has a great record over hurdles at Cheltenham, his record over fences isn’t great, only 11%. Not a huge way below expected though, so nothing major.
Noel Fehily has only rode 3 winners from 62 rides over fences at Cheltenham, his expected was over 7. He rides Special Tiara at 19.5.
4-10 Cross Country Race: Obviously as mentioned above a tricky race, however Enda Bolger arrives to Cheltenham struggling for form.
He hasn’t had a winner in the last 56 days, from 21 runners, with the expected 2.7. However, he does specialize in these banks races, so you shouldn’t read too much into it.
4-50 Fred Winter Hurdle: Dr Richard Newland is 0 from 26 at Cheltenham, he saddles Duke Street at 27.0. While Dan Skelton’s form again comes into question, he has Kasakh Noir at 18.0.
5-30 Champion Bumper: Jonjo O’Neill and Noel Fehily have only teamed up with 3 winners from 41 rides, the expected was over 7. Compadre is 24.0.
PROFORM BETS
Betdaq BACK of the day on stats: More Of That 2-10 Cheltenham, at around 2.84.
Next Best: Josies Orders 4-10 Cheltenham, at around 3.85. (The positives outweigh the one negative).
Betdaq LAY of the day on stats: Sprinter Sacre 3-30 Cheltenham, at around 6.6.
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