FIRST-DAY BANKER A 6.0 COUP: When did Daqman win with Vroum Vroum Mag? Answer: weeks ago! He tipped the odds-on winner in the Mares Hurdle at 6.0 ante-post to scoop 50 points on BETDAQ. Was he confident on the day? So much so that he deleted all other comment on the race and declared Vroum Vroum Mag his banker nap!
IT’S FIVE MAXIMUMS IN A ROW: The nap on the 50-pointer Vroum Vroum Mag (WON 4-6) made it five bankers in a row:
WON 1-3 Paint The Clouds
WON 5-2 Forgiving Glance
WON 4-9 Mendip Express
WON 13-8 Le Prezien
WON 4-6 Vroum Vroum Mag
AND IT’S 11 LAYS UP FROM THE LAST 13: Daqman also nominated Douvan (WON 1-4) as a banker in his Daq Multiples and he dared to lay a favourite for a place at a big price, Out Sam (unplaced 13-2). That was winning lay 11 from 13, and 46 from 51, as his record sequence continues.
FIRST-DAY SCORE: DAQMAN 3, PRICEWISE 0: Daqman’s ante-post coup, plus his lay and a place return in the last from Double Shuffle (3rd 8-1 from 12.0 on BETDAQ) gave him a 3-0 win over Pricewise on the opening day, taking the season’s score to Daqman 33, Pricewise 12 (overall 279-108).
CHELTENHAM TRENDING: BIG BETDAQ VALUE
It’s the bookies takeaway. Making a meal of your money.. and not even a lucky cookie at the end of the day. Just the biggest Chinese burn of all seven races, a right arm-twister in the last.
They must have been desperate to get out after the Mullins-Walsh threesome to go 137% overround. A 37% take-out? That’s mugging on the High Street.
Do you remember the morning level playing-field in the BETDAQ orange? Now we can compare the percentage total in the offers with the Total SP created by the bookies yesterday:
BETDAQ: 100, 100, 103, 101, 103, 102, 103
TOTAL SP: 118, 115, 127, 119, 125, 126, 137
* Today’s BETDAQ overrounds (if any!) this morning are beside each race time below
NEPTUNE AN UPHILL FINISH FOR YANWORTH
1.30 Cheltenham (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle) 100%
POSITIVE: 9 out of 10 came from the first four in the market; 9 out of 10 had won at least two races; 9 out of 10 were aged 5 or 6; and the last four were rated 146-152, as the quality has increased, with Simonsig, Faugheen and The New One all recent winners.
NEGATIVE: Those stats chalk up at least one negative against all bar Yanworth, Yorkhill and A Toi Phil, which are in their ratings order.
FAVOURITE: Yanworth has won his last four starts, including on good to soft, and including defeat of Shantou Village who won the Cheltenham trial for this by 15 lengths and 20.
But Yanworth has only a couple of pounds to spare over Yorkhill on the handicapper’s say-so, and I reckoned Yorkhill would have been the form horse had he run in the Supreme.
ALTERNATIVE: As a Presenting, Yorkhill did surprisingly well to cope with the heavy winter ground when preventing a four-timer by O O Seven in the Tolworth. Agrapart was eight lengths further back.
Agrapart then won a Grade-3 at Newbury from last year’s Fred Winter fourth, Starchitect, with the Imperial Cup winner, Flying Angel, third.
Yanworth’s smooth success over Charbel at Ascot in December looks less impressive, since Charbel was more than 12 lengths adrift of Altior in yesterday’s Supreme, albeit the Ascot race was over shorter, and Yanworth enjoyed the step up in trip in the Neptune Trial.
HIDDEN HORSE: When Yanworth was fourth in last year’s Champion Bumper, Vigil was fifth for the second year running.
The lightly-raced Vigil was short of work when third behind A Toi Phil first run back but was subsequently mighty impressive in winning his Naas maiden.
He ’beat nothing well’ that day, rated 19lb behind Yanworth, but is far better than that. He should earn some money at one of the three big festivals: 30.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
VERDICT: It looks very close now between Yanworth and Yorkhill, who will enjoy the better surface. The trials-day win by Yanworth was in a bigger stamina test that hasn’t produced the Neptune winner on good ground.
I’ll go 1 Yorkhill, 2 Yanworth, 3 Vigil, with Vigil a nice price for mixed forecasts with Ladbrokes. I shall ‘cheat’ in my Daq Multiples by putting both Yanworth and Yorkhill in my trebles.
BETDAQ MARKET: Yanworth was 2.38 this morning and Yorkhill 3.5, which I took. Whichever you choose, watch for any significant move which changes trading terms later on.
LION! GIVE US MORE OF THAT BETDAQ ROAR
2.10 Cheltenham, (RSA Chase) 100%
NEGATIVE AND POSITIVE: 21 consecutive eight-year-olds have failed to win this in the decade but Holywell and Minella Rocco ran great races for Jonjo O’Neill yesterday.
So can Jonjo’s World Hurdle winner More Of That, now eight, overcome his inexperience over fences, with just two chases on his CV; not run this year – curiously, missed his engagements since December – and not yet placed in a high-Grade chase.
FAVOURITE: In More Of That’s favour is the form boost given him by his Cheltenham runner-up, Sametegal, who went on to win the Greatwood, and the trainer tells the Racing Post: I’m not worried that he missed his prep race.’
ALTERNATIVE Albert Bartlett third at last year’s festival, No More Heroes has won seven out of 10 since his bumper days, and Monksland, the one he beat in the Drinmore, had earlier stopped Roi Des Francs.
There’s just the doubt over the stable form right now; Gordon Elliott has trained four losing favourites in a row, three of them at odds on.
Le Mercurey is one of my ‘finds’ but he races as if he still needs to strengthen up and Paul Nicholls is taking in terms of a place only.
Blaklion is an emerging talent, well talked up today by Nigel Twiston-Davies, after the horse’s Wetherby win, and I wouldn’t read too much into the defeat of runner-up Definitely Red yesterday; connections were saying afterwards that it was one run too many.
VERDICT: Four horses here have won their last two races and, at his short price, and with the number of negatives about a horse too old but with too little fencing experience, More Of That has to be a lay.
BETDAQ: We took 11.0 ante-post about Blaklion but he’s easier to back this morning at 12.5. I had 3.0 the place for insurance cover on my ante-post bet and my lay (so 7.5pts the place in an eight-horse race)
LAND THE CUP ON THE HOOF: BLAZER TRAIL!
2.50 Cheltenham (Coral Cup) 107%
NEGATIVE Favourites don’t win. But look no further than the next six beyond the favourite in the betting (9 wins out of 10).
Trainers John Ferguson (Commissioned and Qewy), who let me down yesterday, and Gary Moore (Baron Alco, Ubak) – three losing favourites on the trot – are not in particularly good form.
POSITIVE Horses aged five and six have won six out of seven, which leaves you 11 to concentrate on, less the three whose stables are out of form, and less the Henderson pair, Theinval (the layers can’t give him away) and Days Of Heaven, beaten 78 lengths on his last three starts.
FAVOURITE Only two aged eight or older have won it since 1998, and Diamond King is with Gordon Elliott whose three were not good enough yesterday and the English handicapper has viewed the horse’s Punchestown win harshly, hitting him for a 13lb rise.
ALTERNATIVE That leaves us, on the stats, with strong-galloper Rock The Kasbah and two of Paul Nicholls, Politologue and Baoulet Delaroque (has had some hard races), against Willie Mullins trio, Arbre De Vie, Avant Tout and the seeming two-miler Blazer. But has the ground dried up too much for Rock The Kasbah?
The progressive Politologue is by the same sire as Don Poli and his progeny acts on any going.
Arbre De Vie was fourth in the Albert Bartlett at last year’s festival (Avant Tout pulled up) but the Riccis also have Blood Cotil, presumably chosen by Ruby Walsh.
HIDDEN HORSES Blazer, by the same sire as Sprinter Sacre, was favourite for the big BF Newbury Hurdle in which the Imperial Cup winner was third. Always regarded as a stayer, he is upped in trip here.
Hunters Hoof loves good ground and does his best work when fresh. Has just sneaked into the bottom of the handicap after days of drying weather.
VERDICT I shall take the top three trainers in the race, Willie Mullins with Blazer, Paul Nicholls with Politologue and Nicky Henderson with Hunters Hoof.
BETDAQ Blazer was too big at 15.5 on BETDAQ this morning, and Politologue looked the each-way bet of the race at 11.0.
My market would have the progressive Hunters Hoof (ignore his last run on soft) at a similar 11.0, which requires 5pts to win 50. As an example of my bonus-value betting, I will retain the same stake, although I can get double the odds at 21.0.
SPRINTER SACRE FOR MOMENT OF HISTORY
3.30 Cheltenham (Champion Chase) 100%
NEGATIVE It’s déjà vu for punters; rather like the Champion Hurdle, there are tight ratings but a Mullins horse dominating the market.
The handicapper says there is just 4lb separating Un De Sceaux (172) from Special Tiara (168) and, in the middle of them, three previous winners, Sprinter Sacre (170), Sire De Grugy (169) and Dodging Bullets (168).
Only three horses of double-figure age have won in 30 years, and only Moscow Flyer (2003 and 2005) has reclaimed the title after relinquishing it.
POSITIVE: A sequence horse, winning year on year, is common to this race and Dodging Bullets, still only eight, could be a Master Minded for the same traoiner.
But another good guide is the Arkle for novices in the previous season. Last year’s one-two? Un De Sceaux and God’s Own who are both now lining up here for the seniors title.
FAVOURITE Un De Seaux easily beat Gods Own in that Arkle and this season stopped Sire De Grugy’s resurgence in the Clarence House by a much wider margin than did the other reborn ex-champion Sprinter Scare at Kempton over Christmas.
ALTERNATIVE Conditions suit both Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets, but it’s been difficult to get Dodging Bullets race fit again, though the ground and the revival of his stable will help.
VERDICT There are all sorts of scenarios possible in these big races, where tactics are important: could front-runner Un De Sceaux, a steady not spectacular jumper after his falls, be harassed into an error by Special Tiara, who also likes to set the pace.
Un De Sceaux has fallen twice in seven chases, and last year’s is one Arkle that no longer looks great, despite all the ballyboo about it in the Press this morning.
The second, third and fourth have beaten only each other since, with the exception of a small-field chase at Exeter.
BETDAQ Un De Sceaux was hovering around 4-5 this morning but it was a 100% orange, tempting a bet elsewhere.
With Dodging Bullets doubtful for top billing on fitness, yet he’s third favourite, this is a race in which a 6.6 second favourite must be a huge shout at evens the place, with three places running for you to Un De Sceaux’s one. A huge shout particularly if that horse is Sprinter Sacre.
I’m ‘cheating’ again putting both in my Multiples but win and place Sprinter Sacre must be the professional bet at the offers.
22.0 THIRD INTENTION A THRILLING JUMPER
4.10 Cheltenham (Cross-Country) 101%
NEGATIVES: The stats are out of the window because this is no longer a handicap.
Winners of this in the last five years with official ratings of only 134 to 140 would now have their chance seriously diminished. The top two rated, Third Intention (157) and Balthazar King (153), have huge problems:
Third Intention has never been in a cross-country race, and Balthazar King is attempting a comeback after a bad fall in the 2015 Grand National, his only start in 16 months.
FAVOURITE No wonder banks master, Enda Bolger, has the favourite in Josies Orders (148). He won two of these Glenfarclas races over CD in the autumn on today’s type of ground, the same races Quantitaveasing and Balthazar King won in 2014, one of them going the year before to Sire Collonges.
VERDICT Sire Collonges was two-lengths second to Josies Orders in the last Glenfarclas, with Ballyboker Bridge 12 lengths back and may be the only danger again.
The ground is coming right for Balthazar King and the stable has been the punters stable this season.
BETDAQ This is a shot in the dark for Third Intention but the Colin Tizzard stable is having a fabulous season and 22.0 on BETDAQ is one of those crazy prices, particularly with Enda Bolger running so many, suggesting no deep faith in the favourite.
With a near-level playing-field yet again, I shall enjoy myself in a 101% orange by supporting Third Intention and my old friend Balthazar King at 7.4, with a saver on the favourite.
VIVA LE CURIEUX
4.50 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle) 104%
Come in Monsieur McManus! J P has bought Le Curieux and kept him in training with Francois Nicolle for this race. He is 27.0 in the BETDAQ orange and that’s very much in keeping with the last four results of the race, with SPs of 25-1 (twice), 33-1 and 40-1.
Another bit of pinsticking takes me to Harley Rebel, another at 27.0 for burgeoning trainer Neil Mulholland. Will appreciate the change of ground.
BUMPER NAP: NEW TO THIS TOWN AT 11.0
5.30 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper) 102%
Another normally a pinstickers’ race but the stats say that every winner in the decade had scored on the last day. None had ever been out of the frame, in any race under Rules leading up to this; not a one.
High Bridge has been in constant demand but I just doubt the stable form, Augusta Kate is there for Willie Mullins and Ballyandy has been beaten only when giving weight.
But here’s a thing! I’m told by my man in the long grass that there’s a ‘monster’ in the race, and a study of the form – horses in his heats are winners galore – suggests that they could be right.
With outsiders the order of the day, or guesswork between two in each of the big championship races, I’m napping this one. The name is New To this Town, and he’s 11.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as stated)
1.30 Cheltenham
BET (to win 20): 8pts win YORKHILL (1.30 Cheltenham)
2.10 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) already ante-post 5pts win BLAKLION, and today 7.5pts the place, plus LAY to lose 10pts MORE OF THAT
2.50 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 5pts win POLITOLOGUE, 3.4pts win and place BLAZER, and (bonus value) 5pts win and 2.5pts place HUNTERS HOOF, plus LAY for a place to lose 10pts DIAMOND KING
3.30 Cheltenham
BET (to win 20pts): 3.5pts win and place SPRINTER SACRE (3.30 Cheltenham)
4.10 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 7.8pts win BALTHAZAR KING, and 2.30pts win and place THIRD INTENTION, with 4pts win (stakes saver) JOSIES ORDERS (4.10 Cheltenham)
4.50 Cheltenham
BET (to win 30): 1pt win and place on each HARLEY REBEL and LE CURIEUX (4.50 Cheltenham)
5.30 Cheltenham
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5pts win and place (nap) NEW TO THIS TOWN (5.30 Cheltenham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles YANWORTH and YORKHILL (1.30 Cheltenham), UN DE SCEAUX and SPRINTER SACRE (3.30 Cheltenham) with NEW TO THIS TOWN (5.30 Cheltenham)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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