THURSDAY CHELTENHAM: Our friends at ProForm looks at day three of the Cheltenham Festival. Which horses are the stats pointing towards backing and laying on BETDAQ?
Positives:
1-30 JLT Novices Chase: Davy Russell and Richard Johnson both have very good records over fences at Cheltenham, Russell’s strike rate is 21%, having rode more than twice his expected winners – he rides Zabana at 10.5. While Johnson’s strike rate is 22%, having rode 25 winners when the expected was just below 15, he rides the favourite Garde La Victoire, currently 5.2.
The total outsider in the field is Mount Gunnery for Pat Fahy, currently trading 110.0, Fahy is in great form, having had four winners and two places from his last eight runners, the expected was just above 1, so his string are obviously going well at the moment. David Mullins also has a 43% strike rate when he teams up with Fahy.
2-10 Pertemps Hurdle: Nico De Boinville has enjoyed success both days so far at the Festival and has improved his great record at Cheltenham. He rides Broxbourne here at 30.0 – himself and Nicky Henderson have had over 15 more than the expected winners when they’ve teamed up, and De Boiville has a 33%+ strike rate over hurdles here.
Paul Nicholls and Sean Bowen have a 27% strike rate together, having 5 above the expected winners too. They team up again with Arpege Dalene at 18.0.
2-50 Ryanair Chase: Willie Mullins is obviously in good form, and has managed to have above his expected winners for the last 56 days, there can be no excuses for Vautour, favourite at 1.97. Mullins’s strike rate for that time is 33%.
3-30 World Hurdle: Thistlecrack has won 3 of his 4 starts around 3 miles, he’s also won 1 from 2 at Cheltenham. After having a good spell Colin Tizzard’s form has dropped off a little, and he’s now had below his expected winners in the last 14 days. Himself and Tom Scudamore have a great record together however, a 33% strike rate more than twice above the expected.
4-10 Grade 3 Handicap Chase: Phillip Hobbs and Richard Johnson’s strike rate together over fences at Cheltenham is 27%, they team up with Fingal Bay, currently 11.5.
Jonjo O’Neill got on the board on Tuesday which would have been a nice boost for him given his poor form coming into the festival, he saddles Johns Spirit here at 7.8 – and he has saddled almost double his expected winners over fences at Cheltenham in the past.
4-50 Mares Novice: Not a huge amount of stand out positives in this race, if you’re wondering what Ruby Walsh’s record over hurdles at Cheltenham is, it’s 27%, winning above expected. Along with Mullins form, no excuses for Limini, who is unbeaten thus far.
5-30 Kim Muir: Jonjo O’Neill’s good record over fences comes back on this race, he saddles three here: Upswing (10.0), Lost legend (36.0) and Capard King (65.0).
Ian Williams is in great form, winning with 7 of his 18 runners in the last 14 days, he saddles Indian Castle at 20.0. He doesn’t have the best of records at Cheltenham though.
Negatives:
1-30 JLT Novices Chase: Dan Skelton’s form continues to be a worry, he is without a winner in 30 runners, the expected was nearly 6. He saddles Three Musketeers at 13.0.
2-10 Pertemps Hurdle: As highlighted yesterday, Noel Fehily’s record around Cheltenham isn’t great, a 9.5% strike rate riding below his expected winners. He rides the second favourite here, Our Kaempfer at 12.0. Sam Twiston-Davies and Richard Johnson also have similar records over hurdles at Cheltenham – Twiston-Davies is on Warriors Tale (28.0) and Johnson is riding If In Doubt (13.0).
2-50 Ryanair Chase: Bryan Cooper has only rode 2 winners from over 25 rides over fences at Cheltenham, a strike rate of 8%, he rides second favourite here Road To Riches, currently 9.2.
Noel Fehily’s record is even worse over fences at Cheltenham than over hurdles, he’s only rode 3 winners from 65 rides, a strike rate of 5% and more than 4 below his expected winners. He rides Taquin Du Seuil at 21.0.
3-30 World Hurdle: Colin Tzzard’s record at Cheltenham reads; 2 winners from 39 runners. Not a huge difference between that and the expected so not much to worry about. Not a huge amount of negatives in this race.
4-10 Grade 3 Handicap Chase: Paul Nicholls record over fences at Cheltenham isn’t great, a S/R of 12% and below his expected winners. He saddles two here, Stilletto and Art Mauresque, currently 11.5 and 16.0. He’s has below his expected winners in the last 14 days too.
4-50 Mares Novice: Brian Ellison is 0 from 22 around Cheltenham, he saddles second favourite Smart Talk, currently 8.8. Paddy Brennan has a good record riding for him however, from a small sample.
5-30 Kim Muir: Alan King isn’t in the best of form, winning with only 1 of his last 18 runners, he has an outsider here in Midnight Prayer (40.0).
PROFORM BETS
Betdaq BACK of the day on stats: Thistlecrack 3-30 Cheltenham, at around 2.32.
Next best: Garde La Victoire 1-30 Cheltenham, at around 5.2.
Betdaq LAY of the day on stats: Road To Riches 2-50 Cheltenham, at around 9.2.
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