70-1 EPSOM HANDICAP DOUBLE: Leading 11-4 in their challenge, Daqman attacks Pricewise today in a bid for a 70-1 double in the Epsom handicaps, the Great Met and City And Suburban at 3.05 and 3.40.
BANKER ON THE DERBY TRIAL: He claims that the Derby favourite, US Army Ranger, is ‘full of holes’ and has a banker nap on his stablemate in the Epsom trial, though he’s 15.5 for the big race with Ranger 5.4.
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CLAUDIO COULD OUTGUN THE DERBY RANGER
2.30 Epsom (Derby Trial) You have to go back to 1939 (Blue Peter) in what used to be known as the Blue Riband Trial to find a Derby winner who also took this test.
At least we have three in this field who have higher ratings than any of the trial winners in the last nine years; Humphrey Bogart 99, Beaverbrook and Viren’s Army 98.
But collateral with the fourth horse in his Leopardstown maiden earlier this month suggests that the so-far-unrated Claudio Monteverdi is well ahead of these, coming out at around 125.
That’s not possible but, even if it’s 7lb wrong, it’s within a pound of what Australia took to Epsom as one of a hat-trick of Derby winners for Aidan O’Brien before Golden Horn broke the spell last year.
Such ratings may be spurious at this stage but the form of a maiden or trial race is key, if it is boosted or blown out time and again.
Ballydoyle’s US Army Ranger is currently a very short price for Epsom but his own maiden, earlier this month at The Curragh, is riddled with holes.
The runner-up has since been beaten 26 lengths at Navan, and the third horse was more than 14 lengths behind the winner of his previous race.
The fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth were all modest losers before encountering US Army Ranger in that maiden. So no runner in the race has any form with which to boost it. Not a one.
With seven bookmakers in the Oddschecker check on the Derby market going 3-1 or 7-2, the 5.4 on BETDAQ about the Ranger this morning looks more like it, but still unrealistic at this stage.
And, if you think the old Blue Riband Trial can at last throw up a Derby winner – 77 years on – you can get evens on today’s race and 15.5 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange Claudio Monteverdi.
PUT THE WIND UP LAYERS IN THE GREAT MET
3.05 Epsom (Great Metropolitan Handicap) The Great Met and City And Suburban used to be as big as the Grand-National-and-Lincoln-Handicap Spring Double in the good old bad old days.
While those Epsom handicaps, which are back to back on the card today, have seen something of a revival in recent years, generally speaking the two sets of Spring doubles are out of fashion.
Sentiment and the lure of Daq Multiples dosh has me bringing it all back today in yet another broadside on the Pricewise sinking ship (I’m already 11-4 in front this term). I’m up for the double at around 70-1.
In this race, I need a horse aged four or five carrying a maximum of 9st 1lb that ran at the Lincoln meeting or was a first-time-out scorer last season.
Step forward 10.5 BETDAQ offer Wind Place And Sho, whose James Eustace stable is no specialist here but has had two winners from its last four starters, and a trainer in form is a big bonus at this time of year.
Five of the last six winners in double-figure fields have been drawn between 1 and 6, and the one draw could be significant for Wind Place and Sho.
The 1m 2f maiden winner last Spring was a close second over 2m at the end of the season and could be a trade horse here, handily placed to be sent off in front and use his stamina.
Oasis Fantasy is down in grade, and is another from an in-form yard. Ran well here at Epsom at the Derby meeting but that was on a firm surface and he comes out of stall 10.
I prefer the seeming Dunlop second string, Scrutinise, who loves the ground and has won a grade higher, though 9st 6lb looks a steadier and stall 2 may not be helpful to a come-from-behind horse.
Knight Music, badly drawn in 12, has to step up two grades and his best form is on AW. Another local horse, Leah Freya, has a better chance, despite her 11 stall.
As a winner three times at Epsom from four starts, including the apprentices’ Derby by 10 lengths and a class-3 on soft-heavy, she has been punished by the handicapper.
But little Leah Freya doesn’t know when to give in and the plan could be to get across with the leaders.
Trainer Pat Phelan has had a good winter and his choice is to try to lose her a few pounds or go for a win while his string is going well. What would you do?
Last year’s winner, Lungarno Palace, has not scored with ‘soft’ in the going return and can’t beat Oasis Fantasy on York form, albeit over further.
WHAT ABOUT A 70-1 CITY AND SUB DOUBLE!
3.40 Epsom (City And Suburban Handicap) Older horses (over five) have fought a losing battle, but Clayton is fit from hurdling, and has twice finished second in this race (2013-14).
A low stall can be very useful over a trip two furlongs shorter than the Great Met and, when Clayton was runner-up in 2014, he came out of gate 10 while the winner was in 3.
Clayton is in 10 again today and will have to find a way through up the hill against the same horse that beat him that day, Sennockian Star, who is this time in 2.
They are handicapped to finish very close on that race but their careers have gone different ways and Sennockian’s best form is on a sound surface.
Dark Red has to step up in grade; even more so, Interconnection. Though leading Epsom trainer numerically, Andrew Balding (Elbereth) has had 12 runners in the new turf season; 12 losers.
The winner for me is Pacify, with Fran Berry booked for the Paco Boy improver, owned by the Prince Of Wales and Duchess Of Cornwall.
Paco Boy’s progeny show their best return on heavy, and Ralph Beckett has had five winners in April.
But, if we back Pacify, we have to dutch him with What About Carlo, who beat him out of sight at Newbury in September, is a winner twice at Epsom and started the 2014 season with a win when the stable was in form. It is now.
I could get 6.0 Pacify and 6.8 What About Carlo, wihich I put with Wind Place And Sho (10.5) for a double potentially as big as around 70-1.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet to win 30 points, except the banker which was staked for an even 20)
BANKER BET: 20pts win (nap) CLAUDIO MONTEVERDI (2.30 Epsom)
BET 3pts win and place WIND PLACE AND SHO (3.05 Epsom)
BET 6pts win PACIFY and 5pts win WHAT ABOUT CARLO (both 3.40 Epsom)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles, the four above.
£25 IN FREE BETS
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