1,000 GUINEAS ‘SEE HOW THEY WON’: Every season Daqman seeks out those winners of last year’s two-year-old and early second-season tests that are usually strong pointers to the Guineas, and rates them 1 to 10. His 2,000 Guineas list appeared on Tuesday. Now here are his dozen 1,000 Guineas contenders, though some will already have shown Oaks potential, others recognised as sprinters.
SANDOWN TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: There are a host of top races from Sandown this week. Look out for Daqman’s analysis of the Sandown Mile, the Classic Trial, Esher Cup, Gordon Richards Stakes, the Celebration Chase and the Sandown Gold Cup.
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Where do the 1,000 Guineas winners come from? I’ve checked out the turnkey races for winners and placed horses, and you’re looking for winners of the Cheveley Park Stakes (2), Leopardstown 1,000 Guiness Trial, Moyglare Stud Stakes, Nell Gwyn Stakes, Oh So Sharp Stakes, Prix Imprudence, Prix Marcel Boussac, Prix Robert Papin (2) and Rockfel Stakes, and the runners-up in the May Hill Stakes, Nell Gwyn Stakes and Prix Morny (2).
Then I related their collateral form and level of performance, giving them marks out of 10.
8 BALLYDOYLE (runner-up Prix Marcel Boussac) Ballydoyle outgalloped Minding on top of the ground at The Curragh in August (Turret Rocks and Alice Springs behind) but a yielding surface found her out over the same CD in September when Minding looked much stronger than in the August race.
6 FIRST VICTORY (Oh So Sharp Stakes) Pieces of the jigsaw are falling into place, though still creating a tricky picture at this stage. First Victory’s Oh So Sharp was gained at the expense of Robanne (third) and Squash (sixth).
Squash and Robanne were then second and third to Nathra in the Nell Gwyn this Spring, with First Victory (first-time tongue-tie) disappointing in sixth.
8 GUTAIFAN (Prix Robert Papin, second Prix Morny) By Dark Angel, sire of Lethal Force and other good sprinters. Won the Robert Papin on a sound surface and runner-up to Shalaa in very soft ground in the Morny.
6 JET SETTING (Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial) Won the trial on heavy ground, beating Alice Springs nearly six lengths into third but entered only in the Coronation Stakes at Epsom and it may have been a ‘soft’ success simply because such as Alice Springs wasn’t punished on the bad ground first run back.
8 LUMIERE (Cheveley Park Stakes) Runner-up to Besharah in the Lowther Stakes at York, she turned the tables in the Cheveley Park, beating Illuminate, Besharah and Alice Springs (that one by a length and a half).
10 MINDING (Moyglare Stud Stakes) She’d run second to Ballydoyle in a Group 2 on firm ground in August but reversed that form on yielding in the Group-1 Moyglare, with the yardstick Alice Springs third, and went on to win the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket by four-and-a-half lengths from Nathra, who would go on to win the Nell Gwyn.
7 NATHRA (Nell Gwyn Stakes) As well as advertising the Fillies Mile form, Nathra showed her own potential by winning the Nell Gwyn, though the official handicapper was not impressed and kept her on 110, a good 10lb behind Minding.
However, because the Nell Gwyn is a launchpad year on year, at least five bookmakers in the Oddschecker 1,000 Guineas list have her at 8-1, where she is 14.5 on BETDAQ.
Stablemate So Mi Dar should get a rating well over 100 for her defeat of Humphrey Bogart and other colts in the Epsom Derby Trial yesterday, though an odds-on Ballydoyle favourite didn’t run his race.
6 PROMISING RUN (Rockfel Stakes) The Rockfel was devalued when Promising Run was trounced 16 lengths by Minding in the Fillies Mile. Underperformed that day but has to bounce back.
10 SHALAA (Prix Morny) A sprinter of the highest calibre, beat Gutaifan in the Morny, after a hat-trick on sounder surfaces including the July Stakes and the Richmond Stakes before finishing his season by pipping Buratino in the Middle Park.
Buratino had played acey deucy with Air Force Blue, beating him in the Coventry but behind him in the Phoenix Stakes
6 SPECTRE (Prix Imprudence) Sluiced past Midweek on heavy ground in the Impruduence earlier this month but Criquette Head-Maarek, who likes to target the 1,000 Guineas, gave Midweek a real blow from the front. Midweek is by Motivator out of a mare related to Oaks winner Reams Of Verse
5 SQUASH (second Nell Gwyn Stakes) Well behind First Victory when only sixth in the Oh So Sharp but her second to Nathra in the Nell Gwyn suggests she wintered very well, though her breeding is 7f max.
6 MARENKO (second May Hill Stakes) After running up to Turret Rock in the May Hill, she was 16 lengths adrift of Minding in the Fillies Mile.
Turret Rocks was three lengths off Ballydoyle in August but closed her down to little more than a length in the Prix Marcel Boussac, which is where we came in.
DOWN TO THE WIRE
Willie Mullins closed the gap on Paul Nicholls yesterday in the trainer’s championship race thanks to a 1-2 at Perth. Up For Review beat better fancied stable companion Nambour into second.
When asked about the title race Mullins said: “I’ve still to finalise what we run at Sandown on Saturday but I’d say I need a four-timer to get back in front – we’ll certainly be giving it our best shot.”
Mullins trails Nicholls by £43,200 so clearly it will go to the wire at Sundown on Saturday.
The two big chases are worth £71,188 and £84,405 to the winner but I’d say at this stage I’d rather be with Nicholls as he is like a golfer with a one shot lead approaching the last green.
Mullins won’t go down without a big fight though and he has a solid chance again at Perth today in the opener at 2.00 with Townshend with the biggest danger likely to come from fellow Irish raider Buyer Beware!
Townshend started 2/1 favourite for a Kempton handicap last time out but finished a tailed off last of 12 finishers. It was an awful run but in this company is certainly worth another chance. The step back in trip and removal of head gear could certainly be seen as positives.
Buyer Beware won a maiden hurdle at Downpatrick last time out in good style and can make the Mullins horse work hard.
BEVERLEY YELLOW JERSEY FOR NIETZSCHE
The 3.50 is the Tour De Yorkshire Starts Here Next Friday Handicap and there will be a peloton of just four runners here.
It’s impossible to get away from Nietzsche who is saddled with a six pound penalty for a Nottingham romp last week when winning a handicap by six lengths. Callum Shepherd is back in the saddle and the partnership look a solid bet. The price will be short after the withdrawal of the Sir Michael Stoute trained Shabbah.
MOTORING HOME AT MARKET RASEN
At better odds today I’m hopeful of a good run from Icanmotor in a competitive handicap hurdle at Market Rasen tonight (6.50pm).
She comes back after a break but ran well when last seen out at Uttoxeter. She was beaten a 1 3/4 lengths by Duke’s Affair but had the rest of the field well strung out.
She races off a 6lb higher mark but looks of interest despite remaining a maiden.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 7pts win TOWNSHEND (2.00 Perth)
BET 9pts win (nap) NIETZSCHE (3.50 Beverley)
BET 3pts win and 3pts place ICANMOTOR (6.50 Market Rasen)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble above three
£25 IN FREE BETS
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