DAQMAN 16-1 AND 9-1 BIG-HITTERS: As forecast in his headline, Daqman chinned the layers at 16-1 at Nottingham yesterday, his second 16-1 success in four days, then landed the Punchestown big-race winner in God’s Own at 9-1 (from 14.0 on BETDAQ) for the Champion Chase on the first day of the festival.
56 POINTS PROFIT OPENER: Daqman’s 14.0 Bull’s-Eye bet, Ancient Sands, was gambled in to 7-1, and finished second, which was enough to claim a winning return against Pricewise, so that the scores are now 17-6. His wins yesterday for a total profit on the day of more than 56 points were:
WON 16-1 Maio Chinn Tire
WON 9-1 God’s Own (from 14.0 BETDAQ)
2nd 7-1 Ancient Sands, win and place (from 14.0 BETDAQ)
WON 1-2 Kreb’s Cycle (saver)
DAY TWO AT PUNCHESTOWN: Back to God’s Own country today for another big tilt, this time including a lay (currently 13 out of 14). His challenge to Pricewise is in the 4.55 and 6.40 Punchestown, and the 3.20 Ascot, which contains his nap.
BETTING THROUGH A GLASS DARKLY…
Yes, it’s God’s Own country. Punchestown yesterday was that sweet-grass emerald green in the Kildare heartland of the Irish bloodstock industry, and glad to be there.
But one of the blessings off course was the benefit of a punter-friendly BETDAQ, which showed value lists of offers in the orange like the 108-111% total percentage on line in four of the races this morning.
Yes, I won money, hence the lyricism. But, forced to bet with bookmakers, that would quickly turn to cynicism.
This is what they would have done to your wallet yesterday, had you been foolish enough to open it in front of them:
They took up to 39% of their money from unaware punters just for the pleasure of a bet. The Total SP percentages, race by race, were: 121, 112, 139, 117, 134, 120, 133. Three races with take-outs of well over 30%!
It’s Punchestown Gold Cup and Guinness Chase day today (‘a pint of plain is your only man’) and BETDAQ offers seen as total percentages are just 102% if you’re going for gold! So don’t waste a drop of it!
Was yesterday a one-off for high take-outs by the bookies? Not if last year is any guide: the 2015 Total SP for the opening Martinstown Final was 145% and for the Guinness race 133%.
MIZZOU TO FOIL COOKIE FORTUNE IN SAGARO
3.20 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) Frosty Berry stopped Clever Cookie from scoring first run back for five consecutive seasons at Nottingham three weeks ago but is worse off at the weights here.
Today it’s the turn of Flying Officer to attempt five years in a row with an opening success, but he’s 5lb worse off for the length he beat Clever Cookie over the Ascot CD in October.
Cookie should beat them both but also features in the form of Mizzou, who came straight to this race and won it last year. Mizzou has about a length to spare on their meeting in the Lonsdale Cup.
Mizzou is lightly raced and is only five years old; two reasons why he should improve further past Clever Cookie and therefore over Flying Officer and Frosty Berry.
Four-year-olds have won this three times in the decade but were already established at Group level, whereas the talking horse, Burmese, has to improve massively on a class-3 handicap win over CD when the runner-up was a class-4 winner.
Ex-Aidan O’Brien Sandro Botticelli was not disgraced when second in the John Porter to a Sir Michael Stoute improver who is Royal Ascot targeted. But did Ballydoyle let a Sagaro winner go for 14,000 guineas?
Glaring, now with Amanda Perrett, is an interesting representative of French staying form, but I see Mizzou winning from good old Clever Cookie.
KNOCK, KNOCK! PLEASE LET IVY IN AT 19.0
3.40 Punchestown Some huge prices win this Martinstown Final. Almost always a horse just come to hand; carrying no more than 11st 8lb. Fitting the bill for a trainer in relentless form is Candlestick.
Jessica Harrington had seven winners from 13 runners between Friday and yesterday’s opening day here at Punchestown, and she says of handicap-debutant Candlestick: ‘The penny’s just dropped!’
So my penny dropped on Candlestick at 13.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, though a bit reluctantly, because I’ve had another one in mind for this, but she might not get in.
If she does, I shall back Elusive Ivy (first reserve) at around 19.0 after a confident victory over CD in January.
4.20 Punchestown Supasundae has to be a lay. Ran too freely in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year and disappointed at Punchestown after.
He was seventh doing the same thing – and well warm beforehand – in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last month. Has won only his maiden.
I’ve got Grade-2 placed Moon Over Germany running for me, and I’ve got another potential front-runner, Balko Des Flos, to put an early spoke in Supasundae’s wheel.
Balko drops back in trip after his fifth in the Albert Bartlett and fourth at Aintree. Won his maiden over today’s CD from the front, and I think he and Supasundae might let in a hold-up type.
Five-year-olds are on a hat-trick in the race and I fancy Baden (9.0) is a hidden horse, better than the bare form, albeit Nicky Henderson’s horses were missing strike, placed in three out of four without winning yesterday.
CONEY ISLAND HORSE WITH A BIG FUTURE
4.55 Punchestown I can’t have older horses in this, and Sandra Hughes (Acapella Bourgeois) is woefully out of form.
Local player Adrian Keatley would love to have a winner at the festival and is currently knocking them in (three wins out of five). Thebarrowman has that ‘could be anything look’ for him, with Davy Russell on board.
But he beat nothing well at Navan after a crawl early on, so I put him in with Bigbadjohn (another stable out of form) as having a lot to find. Both are three-mile chasers of the future, like A Genie In Abottle.
Bellshill is the obvious one; winner of the Champion Bumper here a year ago, and back to form, just missing out when gambled on over hurdles at Aintree
To combat five Gigginstown House runners, there’s just the one for J P McManus, and he might just be very special.
I’ll bet an old punt that Coney island is the one you’ll want to take out of the race. He’s got class and he’s got Barry Geraghty in the saddle.
The strapping son of Flemensfirth out of a Milan mare ran his race really strongly at Fairyhouse on the last day and 7.8 looks a decent offer in the BETDAQ orange.
LAST-CHANCE SALOON OR YOU’RE OUT, JAK!
5.30 Punchestown Gold Cup Cue Card would have been on a festivals hat-trick here to add to his King George, but for falling three out in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as he – or rather his rider – tried to split Djakadam and Don Poli.
Cue Card disposed of them at Aintree to confirm his new-found status. But can he hold his form?
Djakadam likes Punchestown – second to Don Cossack in the race last year and a Grade 1 winner here – and seemed too lifeless for it to be his true form on the last day.
BETDAQ offers of 8.6 about the horse I’ve backed in two Gold Cups doesn’t seem right. So this is last-chance saloon. And I’ll ‘cheat’ by putting Cue Card in some multiples.
6.40 Punchestown (Guinness Chase) Pairofbrowneyes ((8.0 on BETDAQ) goes well fresh and lies up with them, jumping well, just what you want at Punchestown.
Brown Eyes missed the cut for a race at Cheltenham but, rather than go off the boil, is ‘in superb form’ according to his handler, Barry Murphy.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET (to win 30): 9pts win (nap) MIZZOU (3.20 Ascot)
BET 1.6pts win CANDLESTICK, and 1pt win and place ELUSIVE IVY (3.40 Punchestown)
LAY to lose 10pts SUPASUNDAE, and BET 2.5pts win BADEN (4.20 Punchestown)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 7.5pts win CONEY ISLAND and 3pts win (stakes s aver) BELLSHILL (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 2.5pts win DJAKADAM (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 2.8pts win PAIROFBROWNEYES (6.40 Punchestown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Mizzou (3.20 Ascot), Coney Island (4.55 Punchestown) and Cue Card (5.30 Punchestown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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