DERBY FAVOURITE IS ON PARADE: US Army Ranger is said to top the rankings at Ballydoyle and is one pace forward in the Epsom Derby market. The once-raced Ranger must charge round the Roodeye bends well clear of a sub-standard Chester Vase field if he is to earn his full stripes.
BETDAQ DEE STAKES LUCKY 7: Aidan O’Brien runs two today and two more tomorrow in the BETDAQ Dee Stakes, which has the best turn-out of the trials, with a field of eight, though High Grounds is also down for this afternoon’s Vase, likely leaving seven. Daqman’s headline horses today:
DARSHINI TO DASH DOWN THE OUTSIDE
RANGER LIKELY TO LEAD BALLYDOYLE 1-2
HIGH-STALLS EXIT BOOSTS HIDDEN ANGEL
DARSHINI TO DASH DOWN THE OUTSIDE
Winners came up the outside yesterday. But nothing was drawn higher than seven all day and the two big fields went to stalls 4 and 3, though it was still a leap of faith in those races to fancy Kimberella (strike rate 4-44) and No Heretic, who had not raced on the Flat since September, 2013.
2.10 Chester The 11 starters could bring the draw bias into play, added to another strong stat: there were no winners in the 10 years carrying more than 9st 1lb.
The Marwan Koukash colours will be seen seven times today but his trainer, Richard Fahey, is on 39 consecutive losers. However, Perrault has won before after a long absence, has changed stables and has been gelded.
He could take after Dark Red. Though he has a high draw here, he has made eye-watering improvement this year – won the City And Suburban – after having the same bits snipped off, though soft ground may have helped his recent form. Silvestre De Sousa is 6-13 for Ed Dunlop.
Third home in the City And Sub was What About Carlo, who was enjoying the soft surface. Sennockian Star was a long way behind but has his ground now and is back on the same mark that saw him score here at Chester last June. Stablemate Master Of Finance and Felix De Vega from the one stall need some cut.
It’s hard to keep the progressive and freegoing American Artist out of the frame – placed six times in a row – but stall 9 may mean he has to be dropped out.
Darshini’s just the opposite: he usually gets going late, so he must come down the wide outside. Darshini or American Artist, 6.0 each of two on BETDAQ? It’s who gets the breaks!
2.40 Chester Sir Michael Stoute’s form in this is 1121022, and one of his winners gave weight all round, as Cannock Chase must do.
Second in this last year but now has a Grade-1 penalty for his Woodbine International win, even though he’s only a Group 3 in Europe.
The ‘Stoute factor’ – his ability to improve older horses – has to come into play here, Cannock Chase needing to find 6lb to beat Battalion on August form and 10lb to beat Western Hymn (Ascot earlier)
Your problem taking a short price Western Hymn is the ‘bounce’ factor. He had a hard race on the last day after nine months off sick.
My man in the long grass tells me that Battalion is flying at home, and 9.4 is the ‘big’ price in the orange on BETDAQ.
RANGER LIKELY TO LEAD BALLYDOYLE 1-2
3.10 Chester Vase The market ‘knew’ Somehow that Ballydoyle would win yesterday’s Cheshire Oaks, but it was a scrambled affair in the end, and you wouldn’t want to take those short odds again and watch the replay!
Aidan O’Brien’s strike-rate at Chester is 10 from 20 but the snag is it means that, relying on the bare stats, you have to back 10 losers to get the 10 winners.
At the kind of odds-on that Somehow was (8/15), and US Army Ranger will be (forecast 1/2), you have to be on the Ballydoyle second-strings, too. Where else does the level-stakes profit come from?
Yesterday I backed Diamonds Pour Moi to place at better odds (with three chances) than Somehow to win (one chance). The snag with that is you have to spend (however small) an amount on a win, just in case.
Today, in the Vase, you have only two chances for a place and, unless you think the supposed O’Brien second string, Port Douglas, can get away from them, there’s nothing standing in the way of US Army Ranger.
But Port Douglas (8.8 on BETDAQ this morning and 2.62 for second in an O’Brien 1-2)) has five times the experience of the Ranger and, if you delete his races on soft, he is 121, though tongue-tie and cheekpieces suggest he is no Classic animal.
I want US Army Ranger to win and stay clear in the Derby betting to give me a better price for Midterm! Or Minding!
I hate it when my fortune-cookie Group horses clash. That’s why it was double delight to ‘get’ Vroum Vroum Mag when she switched to the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham.
Now I think a champion filly should be Minding her own business in the Oaks, not tangoing with the colts in the Derby. I intend my fortune cookies to have a better strike-rate than Ballydoyle’s!
3.45 Chester Most of the yards represented here are struggling for form. So I reckon this could be between Storm Riding (5.4 offers) and Ian Fleming (9.0), who will be getting a stone from the three at the top of the handicap.
Storm Riding foes well fresh and, though he has won with cut, he wants ‘nice good ground’, according to Richard Hannon.
Ian Fleming, by a Guineas winner, is reckoned better than his bare form. Has done well from two to three and, though out of the handicap (his mark puts him on 8st), he should not be disgraced.
HIGH-STALLS EXIT BOOSTS HIDDEN ANGEL
4.55 Chester Surprise, surprise, we’ve lost the pair in stalls 12 and 13 (see my Day One story). Both are switched to Friday’s card; interesting to see whether they get better draws.
Another ‘hidden horse’ here may be the filly, Justice Angel (BETDAQ 6.6 taken), highly tried as a juvenile– ran in the Rockfel – and running at her right trip today.
Alsaaden (7.0 offers) was narrowly beaten here over 7f on this course after scoring over today’s trip for Paul Hanagan, who is back on board.
I can’t have Reflektor, carrying topweight and with Tom Dascombe’s string yet to show any form at the meeting.
5.20 Chester I took a position – at 10.0 – for a trade about Dance Of Fire, who is likely to try to make all from stall 3, as he did when winning at Chelmsford in February. Stable in form has an excellent level-stakes profit here.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win on each AMERICAN ARTIST and DARSHINI (2.10 Chester)
BET 2.5pts win and place BATTALION (2.40 Chester)
BET 2.5pts win and place PORT DOUGLAS (3.20 Chester)
BET 4.5pts win STORM RISING and 2.5pts win IAN FLEMING (3.45 Chester)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) JUSTICE ANGEL and 3.3pts win ALSAADEN (4.55 Chester)
BET 2pts win and place DANCE OF FIRE (5.20 Chester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 1pt win trebles American Artist and Darshini (2.10 Chester) with Western Hymn (2.40 Chester) and US Army Ranger (3.10 Chester)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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