EUROPA LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS: The two semi-finals are played simultaneously with Liverpool taking on Villarreal and Sevilla at home to Shakhtar Donetsk.
Liverpool v Villarreal 8-05
A tough night ahead for Liverpool in their bid to become the only English side this year to make it to a European final after Real Madrid knocked Man City out of the Champions League last night.
The late goal they conceded in the first leg may be the deciding factor here though in who qualifies – Villarreal have only failed to score once in their last 32 Europa League matches, and they are in that awkward position of then having to score three if they concede tonight. Villarreal are also unbeaten in their last 12 Europa games to make matters worse for Liverpool, winning nine of those!
However, it’s not all bad for Liverpool – its worth noting that Villarreal are without a win in their last five trips to England in European competition, scoring only once in those games. Obviously Liverpool won’t want the difficult task of having to score three times to qualify so their best chance may be keeping a clean sheet, which is currently trading around the 2.3 mark. Liveprool to win 1-0 is 7.0 to force extra time while a 2-0 Liverpool win is 8.8. It could be cagey affair with this in mind and under 2.5 goals is currently 1.84.
You have to respect the fact that Villarreal have only failed to score once in 32 Europa games and given their currently run of unbeaten in 12, you’d have to favour Villarreal to qualify and rather than laying Liverpool at 1.77 in the 90 minutes market, the best value could be Villarreal to qualify at around the 1.72 mark.
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Sevilla v Shakhtar Donetsk 8-05
Since the 2009/2010 season, eight of ten sides who have drawn 2-2 in the first leg away from home have gone on to qualify and Sevilla are currently priced at 1.28 to do just that.
It’s hard to see a shock here with Sevilla’s superb home record in the Europa League of late, they have won 11 of their last 12 at home and while they haven’t been that strong away, their strength has been beating sides at home and that’s what they should be able to do tonight. They’re currently trading around 1.7 in the 90 minutes market and that looks to be a shade of value.
Over 2.5 goals is of interest at around the 1.73 mark too, Shakhtar will have to attack given the first leg scoreline and they have seen over 2.5 goals in five of their last six matches.
Sevilla haven’t got a superb recent record for goals, however they have conceded in four of their last six – so we could see plenty of goals again in the this one.
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