4-1 NAP SCORES BY SIX LENGTHS: Daqman yesterday landed his nap, Almodovar (WON 4-1), forecasting that he ‘must win by a country mile.’ It was in fact six lengths at Kempton last night for Daqman’s third winning nap in the last four:
WON 7-4 Zig Zag Girl (Sunday)
WON 8-5 Knife Edge (Monday)
WON 4-1 Almodovar (Wednesday)
NOW 11 WINNERS IN FOUR DAYS: Daqman, who hauled in 55 points profit in one day on Monday, banked just under 50 yesterday including a double on a Anonymous Lady and Nice Vintage, both 3-1 winners. He’s now had 11 winners in four days:
WON 11-1 Jemayel
WON 4-1 Almodovar (nap)
WON 4-1 Turbine (10.0 BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 Anonymous Lady
WON 3-1 Nice Vintage
WON 8-5 Knife Edge (nap)
WON 7-4 Zig Zag Girl (nap)
WON 5-2 Sagely
WON 4-5 Jule In The Crown
WON 8-13 Mister Sunshine
WON 1-16 Hakeem
SKIFFLE IS BACK IN FASHION FOR OAKS TEST
No more Derby favourites, please! I think my prayers are answered, at least in England, with tomorrow’s last-chance-saloon Epsom trial, the Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood, down to only four runners.
Ireland just might have something from Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas at The Curragh. But it’s with the fillies that strong Classic interest remains open.
Less so in this afternoon’s Height of Fashion Stakes and more so in Sunday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas, there are some ‘hidden’ fillies with likely strong Oaks aspirations.
Apart from the obvious – Minding and Ballydoyle – Even Song, Tanaza and Turret Rocks must be closely watched at The Curragh on Sunday. From the top yards of O’Brien, Weld and Bolger, any one of the lightly-raced trio could bloom and challenge the Oaks favourites.
4.00 Goodwood (Height Of Fashion Stakes) Here it is, the last fillies’ classic trial in England, a race that will dine off its 2010 winner for a generation.
That day, Snow Fairy scored by three lengths up the hill, a prelude to her Oaks double at Epsom and The Curragh, and six Group-1 wins in all.
Does another Fairytale start here today? On what little we know, it looks a poor renewal. Snow Fairy won this off 102 and John Gosden scored in 2008 with the 92-rated Michita.
Dessertoflife is top here on 101, but carries a penalty for a Group-3 success in Germany, and Gosden runs The Black Princess off an inflated 84. Inflated? Stay with me.
We don’t have official ratings for September Stars (I’d say 91), Zaakhir (the evidence is for around 84) and Skiffle (82).
Cajoled is definitely better than the OR79 and, not for the first time today, the booking of Ryan Moore looks significant. She may be the danger to Charlie Appleby’s Skiffle for a resurgent Godolphin, 4.5 on BETDAQ behind The Black Princess with Cajoled ‘big’ at 9.0.
Gosden has a poor strike rate of 2-23 – with three losing favourites – since he won the Dante, and Goodwood produces one of his lowest returns.
The filly that The Black Princess beat at Kempton in November ran to a 76 the other day and, significantly, is trained Charlie Appleby.
And the one she gave weight to, and finished second to, at Nottingham in April, Mirsaalah, was stone last in the Cheshire Oaks (albeit something seemed amiss), racing off a mark of only 70.
I’ve gone through all the ratings guesstimates for this reason: the handicapper, in his wisdom, has decided to upgrade Mirsaalah to 81, and she carries The Black Princess up with her to 84. His neck is on a bigger block than mine, so here goes..
VERDICT: I’m daring a lay on the The Black Princess, with a win on Skiffle, and place Cajoled for a Triple Whammy of three returns.
ENLACE UNBEATEN WHEN GOODWOOD’S GOOD
2.20 Goodwood We start the meeting with three handicaps to test our punting mettle. This one has Russian Realm, Sir Michael Stoute’s winner of the race in 2012, returning under Richard Hughes’ guidance.
David O’Meara got a win out of him last July and Hughsie revived him again over the Goodwood CD at the end of April. Needs rain.
Can’t Change It also needs more juice in the ground and has 7lb extra for his backend win plus a two-grade rise in class to contend with.
Arnold Lane is at home in this company, and the Channon–De-Sousa partnership is flying, but he’s seven now and will need luck in running from stall 5.
He may bounce out and race prominently but, if so, I can’t seem him hanging on against half a dozen younger horses with chances, notably Enlace, whose Goodwood results without ‘soft’ in the going return are 111. The rain seemed to be staying away this morning, so I risked 9.0 Enlace but will need an alternative.
Fox Trotter should finish close to him on CD form of last August. He has other form in good company but hasn’t won since his debut maiden in 2014, which is always a bad sign.
Former Ballydoyle inmate The Warrior is another maiden-only winner but Aidan O’Brien’s programme for a horse is a law unto itself, and The Warrior was tenderly handled in the Victoria Cup on only his second start for his new stable, local to Goodwood, which won the race in 2013 and turned out a Group-3 winner at the weekend.
The stable in question, Amanda Perrett’s, also has Czech It Out in the race but the booking of Ryan Moore for The Warrior seems significant, though stats fans will worry that Amanda hasn’t had a Goodwood winner (in 36 tries) since the bouncing ‘Czech’ won at this meeting last year.
CAN THEY KEEP THE WOLF FROM THE DOOR?
2.55 Goodwood Five-year-olds are 5-4 up on four-year-olds in the decade but last year’s winner, Fitzwilly, now six, cannot be overlooked, with Channon and De Sousa in such good form.
However, he races off a 9lb higher mark and a measure of his punishment for scoring again since is that he’s 13lb worse with last year’s four-and-a-half lengths fifth Albahar. His hurdles mark has him 32lb behind Rayvin Black!
‘Rayvin’ hadn’t run on the Flat since 2012 when he made all here at Goodwood over 1m 6f in April, and he’s likely to try the same forcing tactics, though this is 2m.
The four-year-old Wolf Of Windlesham, only 9lb behind Rayvin Black over hurdles, gets 10lb here but has never won on Flat (turf), though he charged round Kempton (AW) and left his field five lengths in arrears over the full 2m. Both are Grade-2 hurdles winners.
Another four-year-old, Brittleton, was an improving stayer last term and is also a CD winner, with Jim Crowley 2-2 when he’s in the plate. But Harry Dunlop (1-14) is in the doldrums right now.
I shall take the young improver, Wolf Of Windlesham, but also put Rayvin Black in my Daq Multiples. It could be a fascinating finish.
ANOTHER TRIPLE! BATHOS LOOKS BIG AT 8.0
3.30 Goodwood Mark Johnston, who has had four winners in three days (plus whatever happened to Enlace earlier), has won this race twice in the last three seasons and has a stunning 101-point level stakes profit at Goodwood.
You could add that Bathos (a big 8.0 on BETDAQ) won four in a row last summer but is only 4lb higher for his last success, which was a steering job for today’s pilot, William Buick, in a juvenile handicap two grades higher than this.
The favourite, Thaqaffa, is a maiden for a trainer who’s a maiden himself in 2016, with a score of 0-11! And Jim Dandy looks the bigger threat, with his handler, Alan King, on seven winners in six days.
A 13.0 offer in the orange, as I write, Jim Dandy would complete King’s second hat–trick in that time, though Alan has hardly been able to wear his Goodwood straw-hat at a jaunty angle, with his score only 1-17 on the Sussex course. Maybe no one’s told Jim Dandy that!
I shall lay Thaqaffa, and bet the other two, for another Triple Whammy at Goodwood.
4.35 Goodwood William Haggas goes for a hat-trick – after a double yesterday – with Golden Reign looking best at Goodwood.
When Haggas and Pat Cosgrave team up on this course, they have an impressive 50 per cent strike-rate. Golden Reign is a half-sister to Golden Horn and finished an encouraging third on debut at Newmarket last month.
7.30 Sandown Golden Reign for the nap? Or the thrown-in Yangtze in this one? I don’t have to tell you how Sir Michael Stoute can pitch perfectly into a handicap like this and then improve the winner out of all recognition.
You only have to look at last year’s result. Sir Michael won it with Dartmouth off a 78 rating. At Chester recently, Dartmouth won the Group-3 Ormonde Stakes off 114.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
2.20 Goodwood
BET 4.2pts win THE WARRIOR, and 2.5pts win and place ENLACE
2.55 Goodwood
BET 6.6pts win WOLF OF WINDLESHAM
3.30 Goodwood
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts THAQAFFA, and BET (to win 30 points): 4.2pts win BATHOS, and 2.4pts win and place JIM DANDY
4.00 Goodwood
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts THE BLACK PRINCESS, and BET 5.8pts win SKIFFLE, and 2.5pts win and place CAJOLED.
7.30 Sandown
BET 10pts win (nap) YANGTZE (7.30 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 2pt win trebles Rayvin Black and Wolf Of Windlesham (2.55 Goodwood), with Golden Reign (4.35 Goodwood) and Yangtze (7.30 Sandown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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