IT’S THE BEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR: It’s big-race night at Sandown, best evening venue of the year in England, but tricky races right through the card. Let’s hope Daqman’s 11.0 bet in the afternoon sprint at Haydock can pay for the night owls.
DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 33-10: Daqman’s Sandown bets include 15.5 (win and place) and a banker. He challenges Pricewise in the National Stakes and the Henry 11 Stakes at 6.35 and 7.05, with the score Daqman 33, Pricewise 10.
SNAP UP ONE OF THE DAY’S LONG SHOTS: 11.0
3.00 Haydock Normandy Barriere is the flag-bearer for Nigel Tinkler’s yard this turf season but is he blowing in the wind today?
His win at Ascot 19 days ago was Nigel’s sole success with 32 runners, and the ‘Tink’ tally at Haydock is 0-11.
The horse’s form is convincing but you can hardly say that of the stable form, and I shall look elsewhere, even with William Buick booked.
It’s a similar story with Bryan Smart. He is on a losing run of 17 and Straightothepoint 20 days ago was only his second winner (he’s 2-36 on turf this year).
In fact, the general rule for turf sprints is that you can discount a winner last time out for two reasons: it’s a lung-busting business winning such a race, and it puts the weight up those few pounds that make a difference in these close-run races (3lb is a length).
So I wouldn’t want to have to hope that any one of the last-day winners can score again. And the trainer-form roll of dishonour continues: David O’Meara is on a losing run of 33. Ed McMahon is 1-16.
One horse who likes it here is Snap Shots. He’s been beaten only a length or two on two visits to Haydock, both in higher grades than this, and he is now down to a mark 9lb lower than at this time last year.
The stable is in cracking form, and I took 11.0 win and place on BETDAQ early mouse.
Dascombe ran six horses at the last Haydock meeting; five out of six finished in the first four and, overall, he shows a huge level-stakes profit with his runners on the course.
MEMO TO MEHMAS: THE BIAS IS TO 15.5 JULE
6.35 Sandown (National Stakes) After Cunco’s win, all eyes are on the sons of Frankel – he has Majoris running at Haydock tomorrow – but the Aussie stallion, Helmet, is currently ahead of the game, numerically.
Helmet was almost a Frankel in Oz, winning from 6f to 1m, three at Group-1 level, including the Caulfield Cup, after being billed as the best juvenile of the world’s best sire of juveniles (Exceed And Excel, sire of Excelebration, five times second to.. Frankel).
Helmet is 4-8 with his two year olds, and his Kempton winner, Mark Johnton’s Chupalla, could be a big threat to Team Hannon’s hold on this race, as these two stables battle well clear in the juveniles league.
Hannon is 26% with them (Johnston 22%) and father, Richard Hannon, landed a hat-trick twice in this; now son, Richard Junior, goes for his own three-timer after back-to-back wins, including the subsequent Lowther and Cheveley Park Stakes winner, Tiggy Wiggy.
Hannon’s hope, Mehmas, plus Jule In The Crown and Global Applause are the ones entered up at Group level.
VERDICT: Mehmas beat Global Applause a long way at Newbury but the winner is now badly drawn, with Chupalla alongside in stalls 5 and 6, albeit in a small field.
Winners of this invariably come from stalls 2 or 3; it gives them that couple of pounds edge in a sprint (see Haydock race above).
So I shall take a chance on Jule In The Crown, who comes out of gate 4 but has an empty stall next door.
If this advantage is worth a couple of pounds, according to past results, she also gains the 5lb fillies’ allowance, and is with a trainer and jockey – Channon and Silvestre – who have formed an extraordinary link this season.
The 15,5 offers in the BETDAQ orange are wrong, the place a tempting 4.6, more than three times the win for Mehmas.
BANKER MAX LOOKS DYNAMITE IN THIS FIELD
7.05 Sandown (Henry 11 Stakes) Papineau (2004) was the last winner of this to take the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot
But Opinion Poll, Geordieland and Brown Panther were all placed in the great gold rush after winning this, while last year’s Henry 11 runner-up, Trip To Paris, went one better at Ascot and was top of the podium.
It all goes to show that you need a rating of around 115-116 when you win this and then you’re only likely to get a place in the Gold Cup.
That suggests that the Melbourne Cup runner-up Max Dynamite (117) is a standout tonight for the stable that steals the silverware at Cheltenham and occasionally turns its attention to the British Flat (turf) to put a few more on the shelf.
The Doncaster Cup winner, penalised Pallisator, and the likely improver as a four-year-old, could follow him home but Max Dynamite looks a banker.
He’s the horse with the form – 9lb clear in the ratings – and the stables of Pallisator (Prescott 1-9) and Burmese (Tregoning 0-4) are struggling or form on turf.
7.40 Sandown (Brigadier Gerard Stakes) Papineau (2004) was the last winner of this to take the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot
Western Hymn is 11132 at Sandown but the ground favours Intilaaq and Time Test, though Time Test’s Group-2 penalty puts him wrong at the weights with Intilaaq, another big improver last year.
The snag there is he may be a couple of pounds short of strike, with Roger Varian’s stable form in an out. He had a good patch but is now 1-21. Charlton is 4-15 in 11 days with additionally half a dozen others second or third; much more consistent.
Time Test (3.75 offers on BETDAQ) is the only Group-2 winner in the race and the dual Royal Ascot entry might just be good enough.
8.15 Sandown (Heron Stakes) If you took away winners trained by Gosden, Hannon, Stoute, past results of this race would be skeletal and, if you delete repesentatives of those stables from tonight’s runners, you’d only have one horse left!
But the ratings say that Clive Cox’s Zonderland (107) is the danger to John Gosden’s Cymric (110).
The snag is that Cymric’s stablemate, Royal Artillery, and the Stoute runner Forge, are unexposed and ‘could be anything.’ So no bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20, except the banker at SP)
BET 2pts win and place SNAP SHOTS (3.00 Haydock)
BET 1.5pts win and place JULE IN THE CROWN, and 3pts win (stakes saver) MEHMAS (6.35 Sandown)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MAX DYNAMITE (7.05 Sandown)
BET 7.2pts win TIME TEST (7.40 Sandown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double MEHMAS (6.35 Sandown) and MAX DYNAMITE (7.05 Sandown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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