DAQMAN 11.0 SHOT SCORES AT 5-1: It had to happen sometime! Pricewise beat Daqman 2-0 yesterday.. but SNAP! Daqman got two, too, the first one in sensational fashion on a plunge horse, 11.0 BETDAQ offer Snap Shots (WON 5-1). His other winner was 3-1. The scores are now Daqman 33, Pricewise 12.
WON 5-1 Snap Shots (from 11.0 BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 Time Test
TODAY: Daqman scours today’s six English meetings for more value BETDAQ offers at morning odds of 13.5, 11.5, 11.0, 9.8, 9.6, 7.4, 6.4 and 6.0. TOMORROW: Saturday special, with the big race king.
AGAINST THE WEIGHT.. AGAINST THE ODDS
4.00 Bath Punters instinctively hate top-weights and that sometimes creates a price for you, even in a Pattern race (Time Test yesterday); in a handicap, more so. There are two or three examples today, I hope.
Offered 6.0 this morning in the BETDAQ orange, Against The Odds has already beaten Snan and Manjaam, and Mawaany (a maiden, like Malmoosa, and a drifter this morning) is short in the market because of the Stoute factor.
Visage Blanc will have her followers, after appearing in the same race as the new Oaks talking horse Skiffle, but needs the showers to get into the firm ground.
With only two exceptions in a career involving 26 other horses, Tetradrachm has had maidens in front of him and behind him the whole time.
Against The Odds was up with the pace when it was clear at Newbury that the winner was better class (went on to beat the Esher Cup runner-up). It’s a retro season for his yard; Paul Cole has had his best Spring for many a year.
DUTCH THESE HIDDEN HORSES: 11.0 AND 7.4
7.40 Musselburgh Another top weight that might belie his odds (7.4 on BETDAQ as I write) is Distant Past, whose Musselburgh figures are 114.
He’s 9lb lower than his high autumn weight, the cost of three wins out of four, starting here at Edinburgh in the Spring.
Even more encouraging is that Distant Past is a hidden horse, after six consecutive races in class 2 before today’s drop in grade. He’s been running well in strong contests at Ascot and York.
The expertise of champion Silvestre De Sousa has failed to get El Astronaute home the last twice and the handicapper says he’s standing still (the horse not Silvestre, who has legged it to another meeting at brighton today).
How standing still? Well, El Astronaute’s last three ratings were 89, 89, 89; and today’s rating is 89. Running on the spot, begin!
Paddy Power can’t beat El Astronaute on York form and his ‘progress’ hardly inspires, too; ratings 85, 85, 86.
Adham, without the blinkers of his last run, doesn’t appeal and Jebediah Shine’s rating is higher on AW.
The one that worries me is Rosina, another hidden horse – a Showcasing filly actually – who drops in grade from a sequence of Listed attempts, and her trainer is 3-7 this week. Rosina won three out of four on a sound surface last summer. Offers of 11.0.
8.10 Musselburgh If the dutching works with Distant Past and Rosina, we might try the same again with a pair of Philip Kirby’s in this one.
Kirby has had back-to-back success in this race (2012-13), both with older horses, and his veteran pair at the bottom of the handicap have both won on the Edinburgh track on a sound surface. Kirby is 21% here, with a huge level-stakes profit.
The paper favourite, Osaruveetil, has won only his maiden (in 2014), always a bad sign. Sisyphus is one of only two winners for Ollie Pears from 32 starters this year.
Susan Corbett (Wor Lass) is 3-70 Flat and jumps. Dominada has never won beyond 12 furlongs.
So let’s dutch the Kirby duo: Triple Eight was 9.6 at the time of writing and Pass Muster 9.8.
REACH FOR THE SKY AND LAND A TOUCH
7.00 Pontefract The 4.00 at Bath might help you here, if you get a good run from Snan or a collateral form boost from Against the Odds.
Touch The Sky (3.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) was less than a length off the winner, Snan, giving a massive 17lb in a maiden at Chepstow in April.
With the obvious exceptions of the Group-1 tracks, York and Doncaster, David Elsworth rarely sets foot on the bread-and-butter Yorkshire courses, but is 6-18 (or 33%) when he’s done so. Nap.
8.00 Pontefract Blinkers first time did the trick for Soul Brother on his penultimate start but don’t be too quick to dismiss his last run, when he was raised in class, or to strike him out for the his revised weight; he raced off a higher mark than today for most of his second season.
Desert Ace (13.5 in the BETDAQ orange, early mouse) has dropped nearly a stone since last summer, and has had a recent race that will bring him on. His last win was in a higher grade.
Majestic Hero won at this level on the last day but hasn’t carried a rating in the eighties since 2014
Similar to Distant Past at Musselburgh, and for the same trainer, Kibaar (6.4) should not be ignored because he’s top-weight.
Kibaar has slipped down the handicap for his fourth start for Kevin Ryan and finished little more than a length off the winner in a higher grade on the last day.
8.30 Pontefract Luca Cumani has a 39% strike-rate on this course and Kilim (11.5 on BETDAQ as I write) is his only runner here this evening.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Peloponnese (2.7) is strongly fancied, while Kath’s Legacy (lay at 2.12 for a place) may be out too quickly in an attempt to defy a penalty. Triple whammy!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 4pts win and place AGAINST THE ODDS (4.00 Bath)
BET 8pts win (nap) TOUCH THE SKY (7.00 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win DISTANT PAST, and 2pts win and place ROSINA (7.40 Musselburgh)
BET 3.7pts win KIBAAR and 1.6pts win and place DESERT ACE (8.00 Pontefract)
PLACE LAY to lose 10pts KATH’S LEGACY, plus BET 11pts win PELOPONNESE, and 2pts win and place KILIM (8.30 Pontefract)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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BET 2.3pts win on each PASS MUSTER and TRIPLE EIGHT ((8.10 Musselburgh)
