DO YOU RATE AS A HANDICAPPER? Follow your stables; know your favourite tipster better than he knows himself. That’s been Daqman’s advice over the last two days. Now he completes his ‘homework for punters’ – if they want to win money – by recommending they do their own ratings.
TRIPLE WHAMMY AT HAYDOCK: Today Daqman spots a stable which is ahead of the game at THREE of today’s meetings. But his nap is with another in–form yard at Haydock, where there’s also a triple whammy of win, place and lay in the same race.
YOUR JOB AS A RACEHORSE HANDICAPPER
Three-year-olds of 2016: how do they stand? This is my version but this is also the final article of three this week, urging you to do your homework, if you want to win money.
Judge form in a race, plus collateral (connecting) form by awarding or deducting 3lb for a length for sprints; 2lb for middle distance; 1lb for staying races. But that’s rough and ready.
Try to finesse it and use your initiative to ‘weight up’ horses involved in races of high quality which usually produce the stars, and also remember to make allowances for ground and distance.
So it is that some of those below are for 1m 4f; some for a mile. Some of these handle soft; some prefer the going on top. For those who like extremes, you should take their peak rating on each surface and divide the difference by two.
But such extreme-going horses should have their best form listed in brackets with a warning S for soft, F for firm, so you can look out for them on their favourite surface. The symbol ^ means ‘improving’.
118 Awtaad^ (K Prendergast) won Irish 2,000 Guineas
116 Harzand^ (D Weld) won Epsom Derby
115 Minding^ (A P O’Brien) won Epsom Oaks
113 Almanzor^ (J-C Rouget) won French Derby
113 Galileo Gold (H Palmer) won Newmarket 2,000 Guineas
113 The Gurkha^ (A P O’Brien) won French 2,000 Guineas
113 US Army Ranger^ (A P O’Brien) won Chester Vase; 2nd Epsom Derby
111 Architecture^ (H Palmer) 2nd Epsom Oaks
111 Jet Setting^ (A P Keatley) won Irish 1,000 Guineas
111 Nemoralia^ (J Noseda) won Michael Seely memorial
110 Massaat (O Burrows) 2nd Newmarket 2,000 Guineas
110 Ballydoyle (A P O’Brien) 2nd Newmarket 1,000 Guineas
109 Idaho (A P O’Brien) 3rd Epsom Derby
109 Wings Of Desire (J Gosden) won Dante Stakes; 4th Epsom Derby
108 Deauville (A P O’Brien) 2nd Dante Stakes
108 Zarak^ (A De Royer-Dupre) 2nd French Derby
107 So Mi Dah (J Gosden) won Musidora Stakes
106 Alice Springs (A P O’Brien) 3rd Newmarket 1,000 Guineas
106 Humphrey Bogart^ (A P O’Brien) won Lingfield Derby Trial
106 Moonlight Magic (J Bolger) won Leopardstown Derby Trial
106 Port Douglas (A P O’Brien) 2nd Chester Vase
105 Foundation (J Gosden) 3rd Dante Stakes
104 Blue De Vega (M D O’Callaghhan) 3rd Irish 2,000 Guineas
104 Camtop (R Beckett) 2nd Lingfield Derby Trial
103 Harlequeen^ (M Channon) 3rd Epsom Oaks
104 Fireglow (M Johnston) 4th Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, 2nd Musidora
OFFICIAL RATINGS (today): Harzand 123, Galileo Gold 120, The Gurkha 120, US Army Ranger 120, Awtaad 119, Minding 119.
HOW THEY STARTED (2015 official 2yo assessment): Air Force Blue 124, Minding 120, Buratino 117, Marcel 116, Massaat 116, Herald The Dawn 113, Alice Springs 112, Galileo Gold 110.
NEXT: After Royal Ascot, we rate the two-year-olds. That’ll be fun; might even be profitable.
HAGGAS IS THE MAN AT THREE MEETINGS
2.10 and 2.40 Haydock William Haggas is leading course trainer with runners – at between 27% and 36% strike rate – at THREE Flat meetings today, Beverley, Yarmouth and Haydock.
His opening runner, Al Neksh, should make his experience count in the opener, though there are strong-looking newcomers that frighten away a bet.
Fair Eva in the fillies’ race (2.40) is by Frankel, who is 2-3 with his two-year-old runners so far. One for the Daq Multiples.
3.40 Haydock I shall take on Carnageo, who beat only maidens at Ripon and is penalized for it.
Eqleem looks a hidden horse. Discount his soft-ground form and his run back, and here he is returning to the track he won off first time: 7.6 offers on BETDAQ.
His reappearance run was at York where Albernathy was drawn wide in the same race and looked a horse with a future: 2.84 favourite, as I write.
Charlie Appleby and William Buick are having a tremendous run: in 14 of their last 16 races as a combo, they have finished in the first four, with six winners, two seconds and three thirds.
PLENARY NAPPED FOR IN-FORM NOSEDA
4.40 Haydock Ryan Moore is booked for The Queen’s Forth Bridge but the gelding’s trainer, Michael Bell, is having a shocking season: 2-53 on turf (and a similar 5% over the years at Haydock).
So I shall nap the champion jockey’s ride, Plenary (2.7), who split subsequent winners at Sandown. Jeremy Noseda is striking at 40% and getting 80% out of his runners on average, according to the Racing Post.
5.00 Beverley William Haggas is 5-9 here in the last two seasons, and Sehayli was being backed this morning as if defeat was out of the question.
5.10 Haydock Haggas with Tarboosh has only to beat the filly, Next Life and, at 3.95, is a fair bet to dominate for the males, albeit he’s had one or two bits clipped off!
7.30 and 9.00 Kempton The 4.7 offer Hayward Field (7.30) is said to be way better than his opening handicap mark but how about Mazzini at 9 o’clock?
A July Cup entry suggests that Mazzini should win this a street (at 3.4 on BETDAQ) for James Fanshawe, who is showing 5-12, top of the in-form trainers’ table.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY to lose 10pts CARNAGEO, 10pts win ALBERNATHY, and 3pts win and place EQLEEM (3.40 Haydock)
BET 11pts win (nap) PLENARY (4.40 Haydock)
BET 6.5pts win TARBOOSH (5.10 Haydock)
BET 5.4pts win HAYWARD FIELD (7.30 Kempton)
BET 8.3pts win MAZZINI (9.00 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble FAIR EVA (2.40 Haydock), SEHAYLI (5.00 Beverley), PLENARY (4.45 Haydock)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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