NOW IT’S 16 WEEKEND RETURNS: Daqman yesterday took to 16 the number of returns in two days: 11 on Saturday and then five yesterday (counted as including both win and place Toscanini but excluding Caravaggio), among them 5-1 and 4-1 winners in races in which he opposed the short-priced favourite.
5-1 TOSCANINI 7.2 ON BETDAQ: His best move was to take the 7.2 BETDAQ offers about Toscanini at The Curragh, after getting early sight of Shamrock’s opposition to the hot favourite, Air Force Blue (last at even money). His five returns were:
WON 5-1 Toscanini (win and place)
WON 4-1 Megan Lily (1-4 favourite 2nd)
WON 5-4 Angel Down
WON 1-8 Caravaggio (Daq Multiples only)
WON place Mister Snowman (2nd 8-1 from 17.0 on BETDAQ)
THE LESSON OF AIR FORCE BLUE: Today Daqman reacts to the flop of Air Force Blue and warns in his Two-Year-Olds To Follow update that the same thing may happen again among this year’s hot juveniles. Will punters never learn..
I WON’T GIVE THE TRAINERS AIR TIME
I’m buying some more cottonwool! Quite extraordinary how Aidan O’Brien lavished praise on, and confidence in, Air Force Blue yesterday before yet another floperoo.
How could ‘Blue’ trail in 11 lengths last at The Curragh after an emphatic – a stressed and adamant – assertion (I was watching on ATR) that he was back to his best and all to play for.
Thanks to BETDAQ layers, I’d taken 7.2 Toscanini but was almost persuaded to bet the same stake Air Force Blue at evens to get my money back.
It was only half an hour after stablemate Caravaggio had sauntered home in the Phoenix, and just two days since I’d foolishly opposed another from the yard, Capri, in the Canford Cliff Stakes at Tipperary.
There will be more excuses for Air Force Blue this morning but, quite honestly, I’m plugging my ears with the last of my cottonwool, much of the wad used up with Mark Johnston’s Presbyterian mithering against betting.
For want of repeating myself in this column – probably apocryphal, but I definitely remember Tony Morris of the Racing Post saying it – you’re better off watching televised racing with the volume turned down.
By the way (I haven’t read the Dermot Weld excuses), I can’t believe that Right Honourable – my pick to beat Capri – gave his running on the soft ground at Tipperary.
What I do know is that Capri deserves to go in my list of Two-Year-olds To Follow, and we look forward to seeing him later on. The list has now scored two winners from three runners.
GREAT CAPRI AND CARAVAGGIO SWERVE
We need a price. And we should get one or two when some of these come together in the big two-year-old ‘classics’ from next week at York onwards.
But right now most will be running scared of Capri – now added to my juveniles list below – and Carvaggio. I hope the Great Swerve of this precocious pair will not rob us of competitive heats.
What we must not do is start betting on next year’s Guineas, for which Fair Eva (1,000) and Caravaggio (2,000) are around 4-1 favourites. Daylight robbery. Only around once in three years do juveniles stay at the top as second-season Classic animals.
Galileo Gold was a decent two-year-old but rated only 92 and beaten in the Lagardere in October 2015; Night Of Thunder won just an ordinary Listed.
Only the Gleneagles and Frankels of this racing world follow through. Some are complete flops. Step forward – or should that be ‘backward’ – Air Force Blue.
So why have a two-year-olds’ list? Because a hot crop of precocious young animals usually provides a flow of winners in their season, but it’s a mistake to think they will go on doing so all their lives.
3 BOYNTON Champagne Stakes, Doncaster, September 10 or National Stakes, The Curragh, September 11
1 CARAVAGGIO multiple entries August and September; watch for an announcement
– CAPRI multiple entries August and September; watch for an announcement
1 CHURCHILL multiple entries August and September; watch for an announcement
– ENDLESS CHARM entries not known
– FAIR EVA multiple entries August and September; watch for an announcement
– GULLIVER Weatherbys Hamilton £300,000 2yo Stakes at Doncaster on September 8 and the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy on October 1.
– LADY AURELIA Lowther Stakes, York, August 18
– ROLY POLY multiple entries August and September; watch for an announcement
– TIS MARVELLOUS Goffs Yearling Stakes York, August 18
– VELVETEEN Lowther Stakes, Moyglare Stud Stakes, The Curragh, September 11
ABSOLUTE ZERO CHANCE AT WINDSOR
4.30 Ayr Given the recent form of trainer Keith Dalgleish (3 wins, 4 places in his last 15 runners), three-year-old Robinnielly (4.4) makes plenty of appeal. He was a smart winner at Hamilton last time and a 7lb rise by the handicapper may not be enough to stop him.
Windsor 6.50 May Rose (2.78) looks to have an excellent chance on her second start for trainer Charles Hills. She ran a better race to be second on her handicap debut at Leicester 12 days ago and it is interesting that her trainer has dropped her back into maiden company and booked Andrea Atzeni.
Windsor 7.20 The defection of Showdance Kid leaves this at the mercy of Permian (2.34) for Mark Johnston. He has shown good form over 7 furlongs and should be capable of even better now tackling a mile.
Windsor 7.50 This looks to boil down to a match between Absolute Zero (2.26) and Rock Steady (3.15). Ready preference is for the former who has looked a much improved animal since a recent switch to front-running. He runs today off a 6lb penalty after his latest win at Ripon last week and provided he returns on the same vein of form he will be very difficult to pass.
Ballinrobe 6.40 Father and son combination Philip and Luke Dempsey could hit the target with Persian Wind (3.4). The pair struck with Teacher’s Pet at Downpatrick yesterday and have been knocking on the door of late with this son of Pushkin.
Ballinrobe 7.10 The booking of Ruby Walsh aboard King Christophe (12) by trainer Nicole McKenna certainly catches the eye. Previously a two-time winner on the flat for Patrick Prendergast, his current trainer may not be a familiar name to most but she has already bagged a winner on the flat this season and is capable of producing a horse fit and ready. He appeals from an opening hurdles mark of 100.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes 1 to 9 for strength; banker 10)
BET 6pts win ROBINNIELLY (4.30 Ayr)
BET 8pts win MAY ROSE (6.50 Windsor)
BET 8pts win PERMIAN (Windsor 7.20)
BANKER: BET 10pts (nap) ABSOLUTE ZERO (Windsor 7.50)
BET 5pts win PERSIAN WIN (Ballinrobe 6.40)
BET 4pts win KING CHRISTOPHE (Ballinrobe 7.10)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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