THE BARCLAYS: Sure, the Olympics were fun and we’re all looking forward to the Ryder Cup, but for those who seek true championship-level golf you can’t do much better than The Barclays this week. I mean, has any tournament benefited more from the advent of the FedEx Cup Playoffs than this one, which for years was simply the Westchester Classic, a run-of-the-mill Tour stop? Now it’s an exclusive, big-money event that attracts a major championship-like field and is open only to the top 125 in the FedEx Cup point standings.
Of course, the whole “playoffs” storyline is really just a footnote this week, as the top 100 in the points standings following Sunday’s play will advance to next week’s Deutsche Bank Championship. It’s hard to work up too much excitement about an elimination-style format when only 25 guys out of 125 will be eliminated, and the players near the top of the rankings will advance regardless of how they play over the next couple of days. Instead, this tournament should be enjoyed and appreciated for what it is: a gathering of the world’s very best players at a famous– and famously difficult– golf course.
Designed by A.W. Tillinghast in 1936, the Black Course at Bethpage State Park has long been recognized as one of the finest layouts in the United States and in 2002 became the first public course to host the U.S. Open. It’s hosted two significant tournaments since then– the Open again in 2009, and this event in 2012– and has earned its reputation as a strenuous tee-to-green test. A par-71 that stretches out to 7,468 yards, Bethpage Black is a ball-striker’s paradise that can be quite unforgiving for those who have trouble finding fairways and greens. It didn’t play quite as difficult in 2012 as it did for the two U.S. Opens, but even then Nick Watney’s 10-under total was good enough for a 3-shot win, so scores were high by Tour standards. In other words, this is the type of course that makes you earn it.
So… who’s it going to be? With so many big names in the field it certainly isn’t difficult to identify a guy that you can build a solid case for, but wading through the muck to find true value is oftentimes just as difficult in these tournaments as it is in the John Deere Classic. We’ve done the work, though, and I feel good about what we’ve come up with:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Dustin Johnson (10.5)- A missed cut at the PGA was the only hiccup in what has been an otherworldly summer for Johnson, one in which he racked up eight top-5 finishes in an 11-event span, including wins at the U.S. Open and the WGC-Bridgestone. There simply hasn’t been a better player in the world, and he should be rested and motivated after a 3-week break. Bethpage Black is known to favor longer players who drive the ball well, a description that fits Johnson to a T. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, then, that he finished third here back in 2012, the last time we saw the Black in competition. The price is a little short, but Johnson is absolutely a blue-chip option this week and should be given serious consideration in all formats.
Louis Oosthuizen (82.0)- Oosthuizen has long been one of the best in the world with the driver in his hand, and this week he comes to a place where that specific skill should carry him a long way. It certainly did the last time he paid a visit to the Black (2012), as he tied for 5th and was one of only three players in the field to shoot par or better every day. Though he hasn’t won since February’s HANDA Perth Invitational, he’s been playing good golf over the past few weeks, registering four top-25 finishes in his past five starts, so a breakthrough could be coming. At better than 80/1, Oosthuizen may be the best value on the board this week.
Lucas Glover (142.0)- Since winning the U.S. Open at Bethpage Black in 2009, it’s been a bumpy road for Glover. Struggles with his game, a divorce, a series of injuries… nothing has been easy for the guy who was once viewed as a can’t-miss prospect and is now considered by some to be washed up at age 36. I’d be careful about shoveling too much dirt on Glover’s grave, though– after taking a few weeks off he returned to competition with a bang at last week’s Wyndham Championship, firing a 2nd-round 61 and going on to record his third top-25 finish in his past four starts. He’s always been an excellent driver of the golf ball and can get hot with the putter at times, too, which is why rounds like 61 are in his arsenal. And keep in mind– that was last Friday. Maybe that little taste of greatness, when combined with the good vibes that will surely be flowing this week as he returns to the site of his only major championship victory, will be the spark that Glover needs to reignite his career.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Justin Rose (1.91) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (1.91)
It’s been a whirlwind couple of weeks for Rose, and I can’t say I blame him for basking in the rays of Rio for a little while. Some guys are back to business mode, though– guys like Hideki Matsuyama, the young Japanese star who has worked through a small rough patch and is now back to playing the dominating tee-to-green golf that he’s become known for. Bethpage should be a perfect fit for Matsuyama’s game. Recommendation: Matsuyama at 1.91
Rory McIlroy (1.91) vs. Henrik Stenson (1.91)
Stenson is as hot as any player in the world right now, but he struggled a bit at Bethpage Black back in 2012, finishing 54th, and all his recent globetrotting certainly can’t be an advantage when compared to someone like McIlroy, who should be rested and ready. Plus, Rory ranks second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and fourth in Total Driving, so he just may be the best ball-striker in the world right now. He was built for a challenge like the Black. Recommendation: McIlroy at 1.91
