IRISH CHAMPIONS RULE, OK: What a day! St Leger afternoon at Doncaster remains set fair – hardly any rain at the time of going to press – but with the meeting dwarfed by Irish Champion Stakes evening at Leopardstown when the big race contains winners of 17 Group-1 races.
DAQMAN WALLS UP PRICEWISE 2-0: Daqman fire power shot him further ahead of Pricewise yesterday with a 2-0 win on the third day at Doncaster, taking him to a 73-32 season’s lead for St Leger day. His back-to-back Town Moor success included the one-two in the Doncaster Cup and he followed up with a winner at Sandown:
WON 5-2 Wall Of Fire
WON 10-3 Sheikhzayedroad
WON 10-11 Cloudberry
HE’S CAPTAIN COME RAIN OR SHINE
2.35 Doncaster (Ladbrokes Portland Handicap) From a form-fancy short list of Double Up, Highland Acclaim, Captain Colby and Shamshon, I came out on the side of the captain in the rain. Then they told me it didn’t rain!
Half this field are in trouble on the stats, with the race going to young horses (aged four and five) eight times out of nine, and there has been a definite middle-high draw bias.
Harry Hurricane was runner-up last year, with Highland Acclaim (7lb lower now) fifth and Pipers Note (4lb lower now) eighth.
Stalls 10 beat 15 that day, following success for 12 and 15 in the two previous years and, at Doncaster this week, two big-field sprints have gone to double-figure stalls, with a strong high bias in each return.
Captain Colby did well from a bad draw at York. Shamshon was unlucky at Sandown last month, and trainer Jamie Osborne has had three winners in September already.
Double Up’s yard won this last year and has landed a winner a day at the Doncaster meeting this week, striking at the course at better than 25% overall.
If it does turn soft, with rain again forecast for later, note that the progeny of Captain Colby’s sire, Bernstein, have a huge 26% strike-rate on deep ground. Rain or shine, I fancied his 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning, and also took 15.0 Shamshon.
THE CASE FOR A PLACE ON TOORMORE
3.10 Doncaster (Park Stakes) Toormore sums up the cloud over your betting. You are unlikely to know the state of the going until close to stalls time.
Just when it seemed that Toormore, who has spent most of his career in Group 1, would have his conditions today – his form with soft in the going return is 131014, compared with his firm-ground 02044 – it’s all in the balance.
Richard Pankhurst beat what amounted to a small Group-3 field in the Hungerford, and in his sole Group 1 was stone last of 10 in the Sussex Stakes (Toormore fourth).
So, rain or shine (I think it will ride ‘good’) I can’t see Toormore (5.5 in the BETDAQ orange) being kicked out of the frame in an eight-horse race. Three chances of a place and just about getting my win money back.
AHAA! I SPY VALUE AT OFFERS OF 6.6
3.45 Doncaster (St Leger) John Gosden’s record in this over the last nine seasons is 111302, while Aidan O’Brien has a sole success on the recent roll of honour, still waiting for a fifth triumph.
Gosden’s Muntahaa was only third at Royal Ascot to Across The Stars who was a well-beaten third in the Great Voltigeur behind O’Brien’s one-two, Idaho and Housesofparliament, and Gosden says he needs rain.
But Idaho has won only with the going on top, though he’s been placed three times behind Harzand with plenty of cut in the ground, including in two Derbys.
We can probably expect Sword Fighter to take them along and run the steam out of all bar the leading pair.
If I knew there would be rain before the ‘off’, I’d go all in the improver, Muntahaa, at 6.6 on BETDAQ . But, again, safest to go for three chances of place insurance in a small field.
That’s too big with Idaho odds on but the favourite would shine brightest if it remains on the firm side. ‘Consider your position’ is the order of the day.
TOP-FILLY QEMAH HOLDS THE KEY
3.30 Leopardstown Whispered to me in midweek, Aneen, half-sister to Awtaad who runs in a Group 2 later on, was the early punt from an excellent draw.
5.35 Leopardstown This Group 1 has scored 50-50 between the three-year-olds and the older fillies but there’s an overwhelming Classic-season clan this time around.
Qemah has already beaten Alice Springs (three times), Now Or Never and Jet Setting, and, as in the English Leger, only John Gosden, stands in the way of the favourite.
But his improver Persuasive beat only Listed level at Sandown – I don‘t count the runner-up’s Istanbul success – and has to take two rungs of the Pattern ladder in one stride to stop Qemah.
TAKE NEW 9.0 IN RACE OF CHAMPIONS
6.45 Leopardstown (Irish Champion Stakes) Every decent race that came along, they used to dub it ‘race of the century’.
Though this one has 17 Group-1 winners. the British papers are unwilling to bend the knee on the same day as the Doncaster St Leger. But it’s hard to think of another race in recent years containing the winners of seven Classics.
The BETDAQ orange gives us every chance of value – betting only 104% overround – in a race which even Irish bookies found difficulty to pitch above 117% last year.
But, after six odds-on winners in the decade, I bet they’ll be running scared of 3-1 the field in this sensational line-up.
Harzand (two Derbys) and Minding (a Guineas and an Oaks among six Group 1 wins) are the main protagonists.
Minding would be the first three-year-old filly to win since 1986, and Harzand would join the illustrious ranks of Golden Horn, Sea The Stars, Dylan Thomas and New Approach if he were he to succeed this evening.
I’m going each-way a fresh horse. New Bay, third to Golden Horn in last year’s Arc, has that race as his target again.
But, instead of the Prix Niel trial for the Arc which he won last year, he’s taken this Champion step at a time when the Classic-season contenders are down to a gap of only 7lb allowance. New Bay has raced just twice this year.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 5pts win and place CAPTAIN COLBY, and 3.3pts win and place SHAMSHON (2.35 Doncaster)
BET 4.75pts win and place TOORMORE (3.10 Doncaster)
BET 3.75pts win and place MUNTAHAA (3.45 Doncaster)
BET 4pts win ANEN (3.30 Leopardstown)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) QEMAH (5.35 Leopardstown)
BET 2.5pts win and place NEW BAY (6.45 Leopardstown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
