8.0 WINNER MORE BETDAQ VALUE: Daqman pulled off yet another BETDAQ-value winner yesterday with Outre Mer (WON 7-2 from 8.0), also naming the runner-up, Mount Moriah (2nd 11-4) for an 11-1 Ladbrokes straight forecast.
ARC DE TRIOMPHE ABC GUIDE: Daqman today goes horse-by-horse through the runners for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, checking their history against key stats compiled from previous winners.
DON’T FORGET MAKAHIKI TRACK TEST
ARC ABC GUIDE: 3.05 Chantilly (Sunday) Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Normally run at Longchamp but that course is out of action for renovations until 2018. Here are the basic stats to work from:
A Winner of a Group 1 (12 out of 12)
B Winner at 1m 4f+ (10 out of 12)
C Three-year-old (15 out of 20)
D Won a Classic (8 out of 11)
X Stable in form
ABCD HARZAND
Top of the Irish is Harzand; the star of the East is is Makahiki; the French could repolish New Bay. That’s how the stats see it, and England’s five-year-old Postponed, is pushed out of the threes.
But are the young bloods really up to bettering the old man? Harzand, for instance, has – as I argued on Tuesday – won two moderate Derbys, based on the form of placed horses and also-rans alike.
His fans will counter that he would probably be unbeaten in five starts had he not failed to follow up his English and Irish Derbys because of injury in the Irish Champion Stakes.
BCD MAKAHIKI
Japan’s finest. Winner of their Derby in May and delighted connections when he was sent over to try out this year’s Arc course and distance at Chantilly for his comeback, downing Midterm, who was also sent on a revival mission by Sir Michael Stoute.
ABCD NEW BAY
Winner of the 2015 French Derby from Highland Reel here at Chantilly (good to soft); beat Silverware in the Prix Niel but found fast ground against him in the Arc, when third to Golden Horn. Just two runs this year, including fourth to the flying Almanzor in the Irish Champion Stakes.
ABC LEFT HAND
Since La Cressonniere was a warm order for this Arc before her injury, the filly that ran her to half a length in the French Oaks, Left Hand, must be considered, particularly after her Vermeille win over the Arc CD.
ABD ORDER OF ST GEORGE
Six wins in a row including the Irish St Leger and the Ascot Gold Cup but not run over a trip this short for two years, and outpaced and outsmarted when Frankie Dettori played catch-me on Wicklow Brave, with Order Of St George beaten at 1-7 for a second Leger.
AB FOUND
Extraordinary bridesmaid sequence of five seconds this year, among them defeat by Postponed in the Coronation Cup and by Almanzor in the Irish Champion Stakes. But spoiled Golden Horn’s Arc celebrations by beating him in the 2015 Breeders Cup Turf.
AB HIGHLAND REEL
Beaten by New Bay last year and by Almanzor this, not to mention his being 2-0 down to Postponed, albeit he ran him to little more than a length in the International at York, forcing Postponed to be driven out.
AB POSTPONED
Six-in-a-row sequence began with last year’s King George but perhaps the highlight was when he hammered Found more than four lengths in the Coronation Cup before injury laid him low until returning to beat Highland Reel, though a little ring rusty, in the International at York in August.
AB SILVERWARE
Behind New Bay twice in their Classic year, improving on his French Derby seventh to run his old rival to less than three lengths in the Prix Niel when the ground was heavy. But back-to-back wins this year on good ground
AD THE GREY GATSBY
The 2014 French Derby winner who has failed to win this year or last, despite a big following in top races (eight out of nine have been Group 1), in which he’s been placed five times without winning.
BC SAVOIR VIVRE
Beat Siljan’s Saga in a four-horse race for the Grand Prix de Deauville in August, Strong puller.
BC TALISMANIC
Fourth in Almanzor’s French Derby but only a Listed-level success since.
BX MIGWAR
A nearly horse in his second season, best when third to New Bay in the Prix Niel Arc trial. Coaxed back to winning form by Freddy Head in a conditions race at Saint-cloud in September.
B ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN
Three in a row in the Spring, culminating in the Grand Prix de Chantilly on the soft. Beaten in consecutive races by Silverware since.
B SILJAN’S SAGA
Grand Prix de Deauville winner last summer and runner-up late season in the Prix Royal-Oak (nearly 2m). Third to Silverware in the Grand Prix de Saint-cloud in July.
C ZARAK
Fifth in the Deauville 2,000 Guineas then runner-up here in the French Derby to Irish Champion Stakes winner, Almanzor. Only six runs in his career and Sunday’s race will have been the target for Arc-besotted-owner, the Aga Khan.
C VEDEVANI
Same owner and trainer as Zarak but likely pacesetter, with modest form so far, including third to Talismanic on the last day.
CROWLEY IN LUCKY-13 RIDING SPREE
Lucky Jim’s got 13 mounts today. When Ryan Moore was injured, I warned that the bookies’ betting 5-1 on Silvestre De Sousa was ‘rubbish’ and that they should be ignored; that the champion was unlikely to find the fire power in the final stages.
Now he’s having to chase Jim Crowley, with the challenger past the 150 mark and riding in seven consecutive races at Brighton this afternoon; then booked for six tonight at Chelmsford.
That’s 13 to De Sousa’s eight today, which are also split between a bright but showery Brighton and the Chelmsford night owls. But it looks like plenty of sunshine is heading Jim’s way, if he can keep up such a pace.
Crowley is leading jockey at Brighton, where I’m intrigued by his chances on two front-runners at big prices: Rock On Dandy (2.20) at 10.5 and Maer Rocks (3.25) at 15.0.
2.50 Brighton A 6.2 offer this morning, Solveig’s Song was unlucky not to score a third success this year when losing in the Stewards’ room at Sandown, and is a CD winner, which is all important at Brighton. Note to commentators: it’s pronounced ‘Solvay.’
4.45 Warwick Charlie Longsdon’s team is flying over the sticks and Vivas (6.6) looks a solid win-and-place bet under Richard Johnson.
5.35 Brighton A very kind handicapper has Noverre To Go on the same rating (60) and same weight for a Class 6 that won him a Class 5 over CD in June: 9.2 on BETDAQ as I write.
If you are worried about his age (he’s 10), check out 15-year-old Megalala (4.00 today), who won at Lingfield, also in June,
Fairy Mist – he’s a youngster at nine! – has scored at Brighton firm and on soft, but that was over a mile and he may find this too sharp.
Burauq returned to form at Bath recently but has poor form at Brighton. Magic Strike is still a maiden. Virile has never won on turf.
Hipz has dropped a stone down the handicap this year and could be ready to resume his prolific form of 2015; three wins then including one here at Brighton off 7lb higher.
Hipz (8.0) should go well, back at Brighton, certainly for a place with his overall form here 3143 but clearly Noverre To Go has been given every chance.
6.40 Chelmsford Jim Crowley is 5-11 (that’s 45%) for the burgeoning yard of Hugo Palmer, and ner-on-300,000-guinea buy Hyper Dream is working as well as any of his two-year-olds.
8.40 Chelmsford Ed Dunlop’s is another yard that scores highly under Crowley and Blushes – a tasty 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning – is proving consistent and is a CD winner. If Crowley hasn’t won by 8.40, this one should spare his blushes.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 2pts win and place ROCK ON DANDY (2.20 Brighton)
BET 4pts win and place SOLVEIG’S SONG (2.50 Brighton)
BET 1.5pts win and place MAER ROCKS (3.25 Brighton)
BET 3.6pts win and place VIVAS (4.45 Warwick)
BET 3pts win and place HIPZ, and 2pts win and place NOVERRE TO GO (5.35 Brighton)
BET 6pts win HYPER DREAM (6.40 Chelmsford)
BET 4.5pts win (nap) BLUSHES (8.40 Chelmsford)
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