SERIE A FRIDAY: The Ultra previews FIORENTINA v ATALANTA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FIORENTINA V ATALANTA
7.45pm It’s the last hurrah of the Serie A season this weekend on Betdaq Betting Exchange! , and we kick it off with Friday Night Football as Fiorentina host Atalanta! While most of the domestic European leagues all kick off at the same time, Serie A break up their fixtures into blocks that all impact each other – title race, European places and relegation battle etc – I feel it works better that way! This is a game that is essentially meaningless – Fiorentina are towards the bottom of the table but can’t get relegated. Atalanta can’t go anywhere as they sit in seventh which is the Europa Conference League spot. We do have an interesting market to look at though.
We have an open betting heat – Atalanta are the favourites at 2.58 with Fiorentina 2.88 and the draw is 3.7 at the time of writing. It’s worth taking a step back and remembering just how precarious Fiorentina’s season looked at various points. After flirting dangerously with the relegation zone for much of the first half of the campaign, they produced a truly remarkable turnaround under new management and transformed their season entirely. Their underlying numbers are actually far better than their early-season league position ever suggested – their average xG created of 1.34 is a solid mid-table attacking figure, and their average xG conceded of 1.47 is broadly mid-table too. It was never the profile of a relegation side.
It’s hard to believe Fiorentina started the season with fifteen Serie A games without a win! Atalanta had a desperate start to the season too; they only managed two wins in their first twelve Serie A wins – not a good start for a Champions League side! Similar to Fiorentina, their xG figures don’t reflect their place in the table either. Their average xG created of 1.62 is the third best attacking figure in Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 1.33 is a reasonably OK defensive figure too. They should be higher than the Europa Conference League, but here we are. It’s hard to know what the motivation levels will be for both sides here, and we can probably expect some changes too, from that point of view it would be a shrewd option to have low stakes, at least before seeing the team news.
Both sides have clearly been playing better than their results suggest, and they have both finished the season strongly – they actually have two very similar profiles. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here – I can fully see why we have such an open market. I do feel with this being the last day of the season and the pressure off, we’ll see goals here. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.74 and Both Teams To Score is 1.58. I couldn’t put anyone off either bet, but Over 2.5 goals looks a nice position in what should be an entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAFiAt
