UNMASKING THE CHAMPIONS: Daqman today looks at the phenomena of Churchill, champion two-year-old, and Jim Crowley, champion jockey elect. Is what we read in the Press to be relied on? Are they worth more of your money?
TOMORROW: CHAMPIONS DAY: Tomorrow starts Daqman’s countdown to more champions, all due to be crowned on Saturday, British Champions Day at Ascot.
‘BABY’ CHURCHILL JUST A BET FOR DUMMIES
I like to have the last word. And in this case, now that the superlatives have all been used up about the Ballydoyle colt Churchill, the word is ‘Derby’.
I see this giant Galileo as more of a Derby type, revealed by his galloping style in the Dewhurst, only really getting going after the dip.
He may or may not pick up the Guineas along the way, with only his stablemate, the sprinter Caravaggio, inside the 16-1 bar two.
But don’t forget that he’ll fill that frame over the winter – at least that’s the hopeful view – and he’ll go to Newmarket as a baby too big for his pram.
First-season horses with form are still only babies: some will mature; some are still ‘hidden horses’, and the winners at Newmarket, Epsom and The Curragh may yet emerge in the Spring.
But some two-year-old stars never grow up. That’s another reason why I would be loath to add 2-1 Churchill to my ante-post wallet. Just look at the fortunes of last year’s Dewhurst seven, with this year’s form figures at left:
0000 Air Force Blue (winner): failed to reach the frame this year; odds-on flop in the Guineas; evens when last of seven in the Phoenix Sprint.
200 Massaat (second): runner-up in the Guineas; ninth in the Derby; last of seven on the last day.
04 Sanus Per Aquam (third): last of eight in the Irish Guineas
0 Tashweeq (fourth): sixth of eight in the Saint–cloud International
0200 Adventurous (fifth): last of seven in a handicap
00022300 Twin Sails (sixth): eight tries in handicaps all failed.
00 Emotionless (last): fifth in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
So, if not the Dewhurst, where did this year’s so-called superstar Classic winners come from?
Galileo Gold (Newmarket Guineas) had won only a Group 2 as a two-year-old and was quickly overtaken after the Guineas by ‘latents’ Awtaad (Irish Guineas) and The Gurkha.
Well, where did they come from, then? Awtaad won only his maiden as a juvenile; The Gurkha didn’t race at all until he was three!
And the two Derbys? Harzand, who won them both, came to his Classic season as a once-raced maiden. Do you still think you should take 2-1 Churchill for Newmarket? Don’t be a dummy!
THE RISE AND RISE OF GENTLEMAN JIM..
It’s all there in black and white. Or maybe blue and white. The mark of champions is the way they can raise their game. As did Leicester City last year, solidly going about their job. And quiet-spoken Jim Crowley (pictured) this year.
But it’s not easy for the punter, even the ardent fan: could Leicester really beat Man U and Man C? Can Crowley keep on with these doubles and trebles, a 49 record last month, riding horses you – and he? – would normally avoid?
The Leicester racecourse stats say that, if there’s any place lucky Jim can land you big-odds winners, it’s here at the Oadby track, where he has a massive 48 points level-stakes profit.
Crowley seems to have come from nowhere but, in fact, has ridden more than 1,000 winners in eight years, and his current 171 is only 34 more than his previous best 137 winners in 2013; it was always on the cards that he’d make the breakthrough, given the rides..
So is that the sole reason: more rides? No, in truth, he’s 158 rides short of his 2009 total of 1,066. The difference is that in 2009 his strike rate was 11%. This season it’s almost double at 19%.
3.10 Leicester Crowley’s mount here is for the Martyn Meade yard, cock a hoop after taking the Group-2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket at the weekend with Aclaim.
So both stable and jockey are on a high. Acclaim for Meade, acclaim for Crowley, is entrusted to C Note in this race, with an emphasis on first-time blinkers.
Three-year-olds like C Note no longer get much of an allowance in handicaps but that’s because, theoretically, they’ve been going forward.
In this case, going backwards unless Jim and the blinds can check the decline from Group 3 at Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes 10th) to class 3 on the last day.
There’s also the worry that C Note’s sole success came on heavy ground, and Leicester is so firm they’ve had to do some minor watering.
The only time Can’t Change It put back-to-back wins together, they were eight months apart. Can he hold his form?
Historically, That Is The Spirit can, but his sequence of wins was more than two years ago. Maggie Pink’s best form is with cut in the ground.
Intransigent has been dropped 10lb this year and was back in the frame on the last day but the one I like is the 4.5 BETDAQ offer Accession, quite the specialist at this 7f, with three winners, on both firm and soft.
He’s a bit high in the ratings but the opposition is modest, and his second at Newmarket in August and third at Newbury in September could be good enough here, considering his third-placed effort was in a Listed. Behind Aclaim.
3.45 Leicester Come the ‘off’ time, Dougan could be favourite under Crowley here but shouldn’t be. He’s only ever won on AW, including in Crowley’s hands at Wolver on the last day.
The drop back to the minimum trip is also a worry, though he was less than three lengths off the winner in his only previous start at this trip, a big-field handicap at Ascot in July.
Maybe he’ll follow the example of Boom The Groom, who was an AW performer until breaking through on turf this year, winning a grass race for the first time in England in July.
Down in class here after a Group 3 effort at Newbury against Kings Stand runner-up, Cotai Glory, was spoiled by soft ground.
Hay Chewed has won at Leicester but has twice seen the rear end of Boom The Groom this season. Morning market leader Lightscameraction has only ever won at Lingfield and looked a false favourite on BETDAQ this morning, which allowed me to take early positions at 5.7 Boom The Groom and 6.4 Dougan.
Maybe J Crowley can also win the next on Redgrave (4.4 offers on BETDAQ for the 4.15) but we’re back to the problem of baby two-year-olds!
THE NAP: Barkis (a 3.6 offer in the 3.00 Huntingdon) is willing, if his last month’s hurdles debut is anything to go by, and he should be more willing over this extra trip by all accounts.
The previous winners in the race are both penalised,and Nicky Henderson has a 43% hurdles strike-rate at Huntingdon. His only runner today.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 8pts win (nap) BARKIS (3.00 Huntingdon)
BET 6pts win ACCESSION (3.10 Leicester)
BET 4pts win on each BOOM THE GROOM and DOUGAN (3.45 Leicester)
BET 6pts win REDGRAVE (4.15 Leicester)
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