21 TODAY! DAQMAN’S FORTUNE COOKIES: Here are Daqman’s Fortune Cookies of 21 Jumps horses to follow, several chosen because the forecast is for a dry winter, though he is also looking to the Spring festivals. But the list will be revised – as last year – in the run-up to Cheltenham.
DARING NAP ON LINGFIELD UNKNOWN: Betdaq traders are used to playing several horses in one race, back or lay, but such is the low overround on the exchange that the ordinary punter can make a profit from two in a race as his day’s bets. Daqman dares it today, and lays his neck on the line with an unknown horse as the Lingfield nap.
TOMORROW: Daqman’s betting plans for the Jumps season.
DAQMAN’S 21 HOT FORTUNE COOKIES
If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em! So no apologies for 12 of my Top Twenty-One horses to follow coming from the stables of Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins.
I made a small level-stakes profit on my Flat-race Fortune Cookies, which could have been improved by a staking plan, but my personal agenda in having horses to follow is to keep my eye on the ball and find new kids on the block.
Causes of Causes and Dodging Bullets were two of my star finds in recent seasons, and – as the Daqman Library confirms – they won me the Champion Chase (9-2), Kim Muir (11.0 Betdaq) and NH Chase (44.0 Betdaq), all at Cheltenham.
Though my full list wasn’t ready last week, I put up Frodon before his weekend win. I might add another or two of this ilk before I create a final Dirty Dozen for Cheltenham in the New Year.
-423 ASTHURIA (W. Mullins) Bellshill, Douvan, Vroum Vroum Mag and Yorkhill are my Mullins vanguard, with this one, plus Good Thyne Tara and Timi Roli as his dark horses. Put away after her Fairyhouse debut.
3021 BELLSHILL (W Mullins) Novice-chase programme but Grade-1 novice hurdle win over 3m at the Punchestown Festival means that plans could be revised with good reason to target the World Hurdle.
2111 BLOW BY BLOW (G Elliott) By the sire of Vautour and Sir Des Champs out of a half-sister to Cooldine, the Punchestown Champion Bumper winner ‘could be anything’. He’s so exciting, says his handler.
2033 DODGING BULLETS (P Nicholls) Famous in the Daqman annals as my Champion Chase winner (2015). But more recent signs are that, despite his Flat-race pedigree, he has stamina. So a second career?
1F11 DON COSSACK (G Elliott) Winner of 12 out of 13 chases, still standing, including Punchestown Gold Cup, Down Royal Champion Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup. Recovering from injury. Best on fast.
1111 DOUVAN (W Mullins) Winner of five Grade-1 novice-chases by a total of 65 lengths – three at the championship tracks of Cheltenham, Aintree, Punchestown – and now seems 2017 Champion Chaser elect.
0111 FRODON (P Nicholls) I warned last week that, though only four, this jaw-dropping jumper had next weekend’s autumn gold cup at Cheltenham as his target and would win his prep on Saturday. He did.
0003 GENEROUS RANSOM (P Hobbs) Has moved to Withycombe from Nick Gifford and the change of scenery has done him good. A handicap chase on the soft will quickly prove how wrong it was to drop him 15lb.
1331 GOOD THYNE TARA (W Mullins) Won a Cork bumper on Sunday without turning a hair and ‘expected’ over hurdles soon. By Kayf Tara out of a Good Thyne mare, she could be special upped in trip in 2017.
–12 JENKINS (N Henderson) Impressive 9-lengths winner of a Newbury bumper before the ‘moral’ when giving weight beaten only a half a length in 16-runner champion bumper at Punchestown in April.
2P11 MARRACUDJA (P Nicholls) Dual winner Ballybolley, second giving a lump of weight to the winner in the Future Stars Chase at Sandown on Saturday, had earlier been slammed nine lengths by Marracudja.
3113 MORE OF THAT (JJ O’Neill) He’ll be nine on January 1 but has had just nine races! The World Hurdle winner of 2014 was only third when favourite for the 2016 RSA Chase (broke blood vessel). More than that.
0121 ONE TRACK MIND (W Greatrex) Flemensfirth gelding that traces back to One Man on the dam’s side. Rose from handicaps to take the Champion Stayers’ Hurdle at Punchestown. Similar options to Bellshill.
1111 THISTLECRACK (C Tizzard) Rating climbed 39lb with seven wins from eight culminating in the World Hurdle and the Liverpool Stayers’ Hurdle. Strolled home on October chase debut and Gold Cup beckons.
—1 TIMI ROLI (W Mullins) Said to be the one Willie loses sleep over. Bought by Hurricane Fly’s owner after bolting up on the Flat in France. Dam’s sire got a 14 times chase winner and a 10 times chase winner.
22-1 VALSEUR LIDO (H De Bromhead) Punchestown Champion Novice Chaser (2015) for W Mullins, runner-up in the Cheltenham Ryanair (2016); won Down Royal Champion Chase on first start for new yard.
1140 WAIT FOR ME (P Hobbs) The County Hurdle fourth was still a big baby last campaign but has grown up in the close season. Likely to aim at Spring targets as, though he’s won on soft, prefers the going on top.
1114 YORKHILL (W Mullins) Seven in a row, including the Tolworth, and then the Neptune at Cheltenham and Mersey at Aintree (over the top at Punchestown). Ruby Walsh told the guv’nor he’ll win the Arkle.
4031 THE YOUNG MASTER (N Mulholland) Sandown Gold Cup winner for burgeoning Bath stable, after third in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival. Unseated rider when 10-1 for Hennessy and goes there again.
-111 WINTER ESCAPE (A King) Paul Nicholls has put up Marracudja as ‘much like Twist Magic’. Go back to his defeat by Winter Escape at Kempton with horses 15 and 27 lengths behind both winners since.
1111 VROUM VROUM MAG (W Mullins) With Faugheen having to bounce back from a setback and Annie Power nine come January, step forward another wonder mare, 10 runs 10 wins, fences and hurdles.
FROST WARNING FOR SOLO RIDE
1.10 Huntingdon Lisheen Prince is a weak sort and Apasionado has to give weight all round, so it might be worth taking a punt or two outside the front two.
At 17.5 on BETDAQ as I write, Atlantic Storm, working well for Dan Skelton, has Harry Skelton riding here, although the team has four runners at Sedgefield.
Barry Geraghty has a 47% strike rate on the course but has just the one ride, River Frost (4.6) for Alan King.
1.35 Sedgefield Neil Mulholland has a stunning 71% record with chasers at Sedgefield and, though not much cop over hurdles, Points winner Bishops Court is expected to make up into a fair chaser: 5.5 on BETDAQ.
Sue Smith has suddenly hit her stride (form figures 132211) and Wolf Sword – a 5.9 offer – has raced as if today’s trip is spot on.
2.20 Huntingdon (Michaelmas Hurdle) Skelton’s Optimus Prime preps for chasing and Mystic Sky has won only small-field hurdle races at lower levels.
So it may be a question of whether All Set To Go can give 24lb to Robinshill who is likely to try to make all. With those question marks against the others, I punted on Robinshill at 6.8 with a stakes saver All Set To Go.
2.50 Huntingdon (Tom Jones Memorial Chase) As far as I know, Tom Jones (76) is alive and well, and singing Delilah in his bath somewhere in the valleys.
This memorial race is to master-trainer Harry Thomson Jones, the likeable and immaculate Etonian, who would happily buy you a gin in the Bedford Lodge while some were still doing second lot.
Without Tom, there might have been no Godolphin and no Al Bahathri gallop. He saddled Al Bahathri to win the 1985 Irish 1,000 Guineas for Sheikh Hamdan, but also trained not a bad little chaser, by the name of Tingle Creek.
Sad to see that Anatol has defected. I nearly put him in my horses to follow, so highly is he regarded. Only niggling problems have prevented his taking high rank. Tingle Creek?
LAUTARET THE NAP AT LINGFIELD
3.00 Lingfield With my nap, Anatol, a late defector, so that my big play is trumped, it’s almost as though the whispers have won the election (sorry, selection) for Lautaret as the nap.
Jamie Snowden has a tremendous record with first-time handicappers (3-5 or 60%) and Lautaret – 3.75 this morning – is given full benefit (of the doubt) as an immigrant. Just 10st. My source says he could win it with 12st! We’ll see.
3.30 Lingfield Where have you been, Venetia? You know I can’t live without you, when the wellies and the windscreen wipers are on.
With just one hurdles winner and one over fences this season, Ms Williams returns today with a single runner here, Eminent Poet, but the ground on the hurdles course at autumn-leafy Lingfield may not have enough cut.
It’s no coincidence that all Venetia’s big-race entries need soft-heavy ground: Aso and Tenor Nivernais in the autumn gold cup at Cheltenham on Saturday week, and Houblon des Obeaux and Otago Trail in the Hennessy at Newbury at the end of the month.
Eminent Poet has won only in a bog, and Laugharne hasn’t won since a maiden on the Flat in 2013 (his trainer hasn’t won at all this season!)
Theligny’s September success at Kelso has been boosted twice. He and King Cool try to step up from the novice-hurdle ranks, which Byron Blue has failed to do in the 27 months since he won one.
I fancy a pound on 14.0 offer Bohemian Rhapsody, with trainer Brendan Powell’s form figures currently 23103 and with Tom Scu booked.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BET 6pts win RIVER FROST, and 1.2pts win and place ATLANTIC STORM (1.10 Huntingdon)
BET 4pts win on each BISHOPS COURT and WOLF SWORD (1.35 Sedgefield)
BET 5pts win ROBINSHILL and 2pts win (stakes saver) ALL SET TO GO (2.20 Huntingdon)
BET 8pts win (nap) LAUTARET (3.00 Lingfield)
BET 9pts win THELIGNY, and 1pt win and place BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (3.30 Lingfield)
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