ANOTHER PREVIEW HORSE: Daqman’s Preview Horse is late this week, and he may have to Zig Zag for position on the day! Jumps at Hexham and Leicester are low grade this afternoon so he’s looking to a travelling trainer, with stop-at-a-winner Hexham bets.
8.6 NAP BIG BETDAQ VALUE: The nap at Lingfield was a huge 8.6 in the BETDAQ orange this morning but Daqman makes a case for value as he supports the horse’s rise through the grades.
TAKING GUARD AT THE SAME WICKET
I let my guard down. After this column followed his hat-trick, which included the Greatwood and this coming Saturday’s International at Cheltenham, I put up Old Guard for the 2016 Champion Hurdle.
It was too soon for the horse; not the first time that Paul Nicholls has aimed too high with a four-year-old.
Old Guard met his Waterloo against a certain Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park on Boxing Day – beaten more than 12 lengths – and has been chasing most of the time since with limited success.
Nicholls was determined to prove him a chaser and, in his own words, ‘jumped him over 100 fences at home.’ But, finally, Old Guard may be back on the route he more or less chose for himself before connections so rudely interrupted.
He is Nicholls’ sole declared runner in the same International Hurdle at Cheltenham that he won last year.
Patience is sometimes not very high on the list at Ditcheat – nor mine, it seems – and we both should be pleased if he comes good again on Saturday.
There’s an Albert Bartlett dress rehearsal during the Cheltenham afternoon but the most prominent test is the day’s opener, the Triumph Trial which, since 2007, has produced a winner (Katchit), second, third and fourth in the Triumph Hurdle the following March.
A Somerset one-two via Nicholls (who may run four-time-winner Cliffs Of Dover) and Philip Hobbs (with hat-trick scorer Defi Du Seuil), could be spoiled by Joseph O’Brien, if he sends over Lord Justice or Zig Zag, stablemates who were themselves one-two at Ballinrobe in September.
Zig Zag, giving 7lb, just failed to catch Lord Justice that day, and they now meet at level weights.
The Alan King stable that sent out Katchit to land this one, and complete the double in the Triumph proper, saddles one or both of Wetherby winner, Coeur De Lion, and Timoteo, a recent Million In Mind buy from France.
SEVEN ABSENT NEARLY 2,000 DAYS..
1.25 Leicester It’s all a bit slippery in the appropriately named Advent Handicap Hurdle. I mean, of course (of course!), the ground conditions: good to soft, firm in places, with showers on top!
But forgive me if I slide in here the fact that seven of the eight declared have been absent a total of 1,955 days. I can’t recall a race like it.
Only Abricot de l’Oasis has been seen on a racecourse within the last 165 days, and he hardly inspires. The handicapper hasn’t moved him an ounce since February, with his last four starts all off 127, despite defeat by a total of more than 72 lengths.
Last year’s first four were all coming to this race after runs in November. The winner was a four-year-old, and only Pillard represents that age group today.
Strangely, Pillard’s last four hurdles starts were all off 129. That’s two static starters! Any more?
Yes, it’s more or less the same for all, with Towering perhaps the biggest example of the lot: he will be racing off 122 today for the sixth time in seven starts.
But there is one massive change! Heronry, who did his winning in 2013 and 2014, and hasn’t been seen for 611 days, has been dropped 13lb for his return to hurdles.
Was that wise? Trainer Jamie Snowden has had four of his last five starters in the frame. I’ll have a pound at 21.0.
1.45 and 2.15 Hexham Kim Bailey has a 50% strike rate from his few forays on the 500 miles round trip to Hexham.
Champagne To Go (1.45) already has the best hurdles form of her field and cheekpieces first time may make the mare confirm that form.
Thedrinkymeister (2.15) loves a bog and it was the very cheekpieces first time which helped get him home 10 lengths at Wetherby when last we saw him.
At 3.1 the Champagne on BETDAQ, but 5.7 in the orange about Thedrinkymeister, we are all set up for a Kim Bailey stop-at-a-winner bet: back the first one; if lose, the second horse; being careful to have a small-stakes Daq Multiples double in case the stable lands the double.
BOSSY BOOTS ARE LACED WITH VALUE
2.35 Lingfield The AW has at least got a class-3 race at Lingfield. That provides a bit more reliability, and trainers in form at this time of year could be the edge.
That applies to Grey Mirage, Mr Bossy Boots, He’s No Saint and Gallipoli, who hasn’t won since his maiden, always a bad sign.
He’s No Saint is the trade horse, likely to hare off in front, but caught the last twice at Chelmsford, and his finishing second in both has cost him a 4lb rise, so that he’s now 9lb above his winning weight here in September.
Grey Mirage is interesting, placed on the last day after a summer break, but he’s hard to win with and I fancy another CD winner, Mr Bossy Boots. Punters are worried about his career high mark but he could still be improving: he’s marched right through the ranks, a winner in class 5, then 4, and then 3 and last time out class 2.
Three of his six successes were over this Lingfield CD and he’s a huge price at offers of 8.6 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write, with this event a drop back in grade to class 3. These boots are made for walking straight in with a big-value nap!
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, except the nap)
BET 1pt win and place HERONRY (1.25 Leicester)
BET 7pts win CHAMPAGNE TO GO (1.45 Hexham); if lose, 6pts win THEDRINKYMEISTER (2.15 Hexham) and (Daq Multiples) 1pt win double the two.
BET (to win 20 points): 2.6pts win and place (nap) MR BOSSY BOOTS (2.35 Lingfield)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
