CROSS-COUNTRY 12-POINTER: The two-day Cheltenham meeting throws up its first Bull’s-Eye Bet for Daqman today plus a 12-point nap in the cross-country. Daqman does battle with Pricewise in the 1.30 and 2.40 races, with Daqman leading 4-2 this season.
NICHOLLS CENTRE PAGE WITH ARPEGE
12.20 Cheltenham Last year’s winner, Blaklion went on to take the RSA Chase at the festival. But the race usually goes to trainer Paul Nicholls, whose form figures in it since 2008 are 11-1-144, and one of the last two could also have been a winner; stumbled badly when challenging.
Arpege d’Alene, was runner-up in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival but returned to chasing in the autumn. He’s beaten just two horses home, and fences were omitted in the straight when he won at Aintree but there’s no doubting his ability.
Emerging Force and Relentless Dreamer are the only ones to have won in open company. Emerging Force slammed Laurium at Hereford but Laurium seemed better served by the step up to 3m on the last day at Exeter.
Singlefarmpayment and Label Des Obeaux prefer soft ground, and Laurium was too easy to back at 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I’ll stay with Nicholls. On a fast surface, the Arpege hurdles speed (top rated of this field on 149) could be the deciding factor.
12.55 Cheltenham Troubled Soul, who’s won only a hurdles maiden, holds Song Saa and Hollow Bay on Warwick form over fences, while Queen Spud and Dawnieriver, only half a length apart at Fakenham, appear to be locked together in the lower class-4 ratings until raised by consistency there.
In fact, five horses can barely be separated (by only 0.6 points, in fact) at around 8.0 behind the 3.7 favourite Yes I Did.
Three things worry me about her. She won her hurdles from the front; she has had only one chase – with just two opponents – and she’s giving weight to all bar Treaty Girl (also a one-chase mare).
But the real problem of the race is finding one that will jump Cheltenham; the form of this field is largely flat-track.
In the end I’ve gone for jockeyship and stamina, which Richard Johnson and Queen Spud supply in combination at 8.0 in the orange. Does not have to lead.
GOOD (HE)SKIN IS THE PUNTER’S PAL
1.30 Cheltenham Stamina is the issue again here, with 3m 2f on the clock and the uphill finish, and you’re looking for a chaser from the lower half of the handicap with plenty of experience.
Ballynagour (0P), Southfield Theatre (2B), Theatre Guide (P2003F), Shutthefrontdoor (240), Regal Encore (PP), Un Ace (F202), Out Sam (0), Bally Longford (3) and Cogry (04FB) make up a catalogue of expensive failures over fences at Cheltenham.
Sausalito Sunrise is 13lb higher than when winning here just over a year ago, and Perfect Candidate is also 13lb higher for two out of three on the course this year, defeat coming in the Kim Kim at the festival when A Good Skin was second to the course-specialist stayer, Cause Of Causes.
There’s a lot of guesswork going on, with one main tipping page of the Racing Post telling us that Out Sam’s choice of Cheltenham over Doncaster tomorrow was a late surprise; the facing page saying that Out Sam has been laid out for this race. Not Newtonian physics to sub-edit the spread to avoid such collisions.
I would say that the one laid out for the race is A Good Skin, who won his novice at jheltenham and has similar ground to when runner-up in the Kim Muir.
The 8.0 BETDAQ offer is ridden by Adrian Heskin, who could improve his Cheltenham form, but is the punter’s pal almost everywhere this season, with a level-stakes profit at Aintree, Ascot, Exeter, Fakenham, Kempton Leicester, Newbury, Perth, Southwell, Stratford and Towcester!
2.05 Cheltenham Cantlow won the banks race at Punchestown only recently (Goonyella behind) on soft and was second in the marathon La Touche there on firm (Bless The Wings behind). Six-year-old stablemate Auvergnat is closing him down his form suggests that he needs very soft ground.
Bless The Wings has yet to find his form this autumn-winter and has to give weight all round but he has the beating of Third Intention on festival results.
TEMPLEROSS CAN HAVE THEIR MEASURE
2.40 Cheltenham Horses aged five and six have won six out of 10 runnings. Philip Hobbs has won this three times since 2007 and For Good Measure was short-headed by a stablemate in a Pertemps qualifier here October.
CD-winner Eagleshaslanded is 10lb higher than for his last success but it’s very much a question of whether the improving novice Templeross can make all here or whether he will tow the other stamina horses into the race up the hill.
Cheekpieces boosted Anteros here on the last day (behind For Good Measure earlier) and could do the same for Call To Order, though it’s hard to back a maiden in this field.
DAQMAN TIPS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6pts win ARPEGE d’ALENE (12.20 Cheltenham)
BET 2.8pts win and place QUEEN SPUD (12.55 Cheltenham)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 7pts win and place A GOOD SKIN (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET 12pts win (nap) CANTLOW (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 5pts win TEMPLEROSS and 3pts win FOR GOOD MEASURE (2.40 Cheltenham)
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