NFL WEEK 15: With only three weeks remaining in the regular season the playoff race is still fairly wide open, as only six of the league’s 32 teams have been mathematically eliminated and there are six teams in each conference within two games of each other in the standings. So it’s a wild race to the finish, as it is most years, and just about every NFL fan in the known universe will be packed into stadiums or gathered around the television on Sunday for some proper late-season football.
It all gets started on Thursday night with the week’s biggest mismatch, as a Los Angeles team that is less than 48 hours removed from seeing its coach dismissed will head up to Seattle as a 14.5-point underdog. Thing is, the Rams have actually fared quite well against the Seahawks lately, beating them three consecutive times— including a 9-3 decision back in Week 2 of this season— but the stench of bad football has become impossible to ignore in recent weeks, which is why owner Stan Kroenke abruptly decided to pull the plug on Jeff Fisher’s tenure just days after news broke of an apparent contract extension for the veteran coach.
Since turning to rookie quarterback Jared Goff a month ago the Rams have been outscored 131-55, losing four straight games, and the effort level of certain members of the organization has been publicly questioned by the players themselves. In other words, it’s a Stage 5 disaster for a team that thought it was going to be much better, and things are likely to get even uglier when they step into the national spotlight to face a motivated, revenge-minded division rival.
Laying two touchdowns in a division game will make anyone a little skittish, however, and I think there are better opportunities out there this week. Here are three that should be looked at closely:
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -5, 42.5)
Recommendation: Tennessee +5 at 1.88
The Chiefs have now won 8 of their last 9 games and would earn a first-round postseason bye if the season ended today, but they’re not the only team with a little bit of momentum— the Titans have been playing good football themselves, winning 3 of their last 4 to move into a tie with Houston atop the AFC South.
Tennessee is an old-school football team, one that runs the ball and stops the run. The backfield tandem of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combines for 144.5 yards per game on the ground, third-best in the NFL, and the Titans are also third in the league against the run, surrendering just 86.6 rushing yards per contest. Their weakness is the secondary, where they’ve allowed more passing yards than any team outside of Atlanta, but they’ll be facing a Chiefs offense that is rather conservative and is not known for its ability to attack defenses downfield. Alex Smith has been the consummate Checkdown Charlie throughout his career and the receiving corps is average at best, so the Chiefs won’t be able to fully exploit the softest part of the Tennessee defense.
The other side of the ball presents a problematic matchup for Kansas City as well— the Tennessee rushing attack is a handful for any defense, but especially a unit that ranks 27th against the run, as Kansas City’s does. And Pro Bowl linebacker Derrick Johnson will miss the remainder of the season after rupturing his Achilles last week, so the Chiefs are down their top tackler and defensive captain. If the Titans can avoid turnovers— DeMarco Murray has been a fumbler throughout his career and the offense has lost 10 fumbles this season— they should be able to move the ball consistently. And though Arrowhead Stadium is still considered one of the NFL’s toughest road venues, it should be noted that the Chiefs are just 2-4 against the number in their last 6 home games. I like Tennessee to keep this one close and possibly win outright.
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings (Min -3.5, 44.5)
Recommendation: Indianapolis +3.5 at 1.98
It’s must-win time for both of these teams, as the Colts have lost 2 of 3 to fall a game off the pace in the AFC South while the Vikings are in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race at 7-6. Both have their flaws: the Colts rank 29th in total defense and have had issues on the offensive line as well, making it difficult for them to run the ball consistently or protect Andrew Luck. The Vikings, for their part, have an utterly pathetic offense that has produced more than 20 points just twice in the team’s last 8 games and ranks 31st in the NFL in total yards, ahead of only the Rams.
All that being said, there are some positives: Andrew Luck is an elite young quarterback who leads a top-10 passing attack, and the Minnesota defense leads the NFL in points allowed and ranks second in yards allowed. That matchup— Luck vs. the Vikings defense, and specifically the Vikings secondary— will be the deciding factor in the game. Because I’m telling you, this Minnesota offense is stuck in neutral and ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. The Vikings are last in the NFL in rush yards per game and their dreadful offensive line has made the always-skittish Sam Bradford look even more uncomfortable than usual, which has resulted in a depressing string of performances and has left the team losers in 6 of its past 8 games despite a championship-level defense.
Yes, the Colts have struggled on defense, but at least they’re improving, having held three of their past four opponents to 22 points or fewer. No such improvement is detectable from the Minnesota offense, which is why I expect the Indy D to continue trending the the right direction, at least for this week. Luck is in for a tough afternoon, but he’s managed to generate points and production consistently this year, even against the league’s better defenses, and he’ll probably squeeze out a couple of hundred passing yards and a touchdown or two, which should be enough to keep this one close. Remember: these teams have been involved in 13 combined games this season that have been decided by 6 points or fewer. The 3.5-point number could prove to be significant here.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Pit -3, 44.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh -3 at 1.89
After a rough stretch in the middle of the season the Steelers are starting to look like a Super Bowl contender again, as they’ve now won 4 straight games and are in the driver’s seat in the AFC North. They’ll go on the road to face division rival Cincinnati this week in the latest edition of what has been a hard-hitting, competitive rivalry over the past few years. The Bengals look to be a threat once again after back-to-back wins to get to 5-7-1, but they’ve been without star receiver A.J. Green for the past three games due to a hamstring injury and Green is questionable again for Sunday. If he can’t play, the Bengals will be at a tremendous disadvantage here.
Even if Green does play, there’s no reason to expect fireworks out of the Cincinnati offense. After all, the Bengals have scored 23 or fewer in 10 of their 13 games and the Steelers have been solid on defense this season, ranking 8th in points allowed (19.7 ppg) and 11th in yards allowed. And unlike in past meetings, the Pittsburgh offense is fully healthy this time around— Ben Roethlisberger leads one of the league’s top passing attacks, and tailback Le’Veon Bell has been a monster in recent weeks, rushing for 620 combined yards and 5 touchdowns in the team’s past four games. Bell will be facing a Bengals defense that has had problems against the run, ranking 25th in rush yards allowed, so he’s in line for another big day. Can the Andy Dalton-led Cincinnati offense respond and keep this one competitive?
Frankly, I’m not sure they can. Don’t let the Bengals’ last two wins fool you— they came against Philadelphia and Cleveland, two teams struggling mightily. This Cincinnati team has been leaking oil for weeks— the offense has been consistently mediocre, while the defense suddenly can’t stop the run. The Steelers rank in the top-10 in both rushing offense and passing offense, so there’s a lot of ways they can hurt you, and I’m just not sure the Bengals will be up for the challenge this week. I mean, what about their play this season suggests that they will be? And if you’re leaning on home-field advantage in your reasoning here, you should be aware that the Steelers are 16-4-2 against the spread in their last 22 trips to Cincinnati. I know the home underdog in a rivalry game like this can be tempting, but I expect Pittsburgh to win this one fairly comfortably.
