LADY LANDS HEREFORD NAP: Daqman scored with three winning BETDAQ bets yesterday – including his Hereford nap – four if you count the forecast in another spot-on one-two: a Taunton winner, with the runner-up described as a 10.0 ‘hidden horse’. His winners were:
WON 11-10 Lady Karina (naps now 5-8, still standing)
WON 6-4 Callett Mad
DIAL ONE-TWO, ONE-TWO: The Taunton forecast, which paid nearly 10-1 with Ladbrokes followed a 4-1 one-two the previous day. He backs the winner to win and the second to place, so that there ware three possible winning bets in the same race. The Tuesday-Wednesday one-twos were:
WON 8-13 The Nipper (Tuesday)
2nd 7-1 Phoeniciana (from 8.4 on BETDAQ)
WON 6-4 Callett Mad (Wednesday)
2nd 6-1 Roc d’Apsis (from 10.0 on BETDAQ)
18.5 HIT TODAY: There’s another one-two attempt today in the 3.40 Leicester, in which the outsider was 18.5 this morning.
BULL’S-EYE 20.0: Daqman’s verdict on his guide to the North Yorkshire Grand National is to put up bull’s-eye bets, one at 20.0.
ALTIOR ON THE ARKLE BACKBURNER
You make the market! Yes, 12 ante-post ‘books’ are now available on BETDAQ for the Cheltenham Festival. There are no ‘books’, as such, of course; the lists are what you, as layers, are prepared to offer. If you are a backer, don’t fall for the ‘obvious one’ at this stage.
If you’ve followed my series on stats and ratings for four of the Cheltenham Festival races so far, you might have formed some solid opinions on what could be value bets at bigger offers.
If you want to be a backer beyond the market leader, take a position and know that you are able to switch horses later on and maybe offset your Backs with a Lay. It’s your decision later whether to Back the favourite for insurance or oppose as part of your strategy.
I was going to look at the Ryanair but it seems to be the one most up in the air (!), entry wise right now. Unfair to fly any kites..
So I’m checking out the Arkle Challenge Trophy as one where I can dig out some prices from the ratings and stats, knowing that the hot favourite, Altior, is vulnerable and could be a lay (or a saver) nearer the time.
Vulnerable if only because this week trainer Nicky Henderson gave Altior an entry in the Champion Chase, which also depends on a short-odds favourite and for which some markets were suspended yesterday.
Twice only since 1991 (2-25) has the Arkle winner been older than seven; and, in the last four years, the quality has stepped up.
Winners were close together at ratings of 152, 153 and 154, but the race strengthened and, with only one blip in a poor year, has recently returned winners off marks of 160, 161, 166 and 170. Here are the top seven qualifiers at this stage:
160 Altior (aged 7), the hot pot; eight wins in a row, two over fences.
159 Identity Thief (7): five out of six; two over fences: 18.5 Betdaq.
154 Min (6): two chase wins among four out of five: 3.65 offers.
154 Yorkhill (7): eight out of nine; but just the one chase win: 15.0
152 Top Notch (6): hat-trick over fences: 35.0
151 Buveur Dair (6) :five out of six; two over fences: 18.5
149 Le Prezien (6): in first two for nine consecutive races: 31.0
(The six-in-a-row Listen Dear (7), last win in a Graded chase, is likely to get a rating in the high 140s but is offered at 82.0).
IT’S FILL THE POWER’S BULL’S-EYE
2.50 Catterick (North Yorkshire Grand National) Only one favourite up in its history and plenty of big-odds winners from this one, which (until last year) went to horses on 11st and under.
Good ground and a clear but cloudy day would be an equaliser for most of the field but how much rain was there on Wednesday night and has it changed the going?
Federici Back-to-back success in the Spring for Enda Bolger but beaten in three Nationals (Killarney, Munster and Cork) and sixth on the last day in the Grand Sefton for Donald McCain.
Carrigdhoun Dual winner in October and runner-up to Harry the Viking in the Scottish Borders National; 4lb better but aged 12 now.
Ballyculla Warren Greatrex, who landed a double at Lingfield on Thursday, brought Ballyculla back for the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day. Favourite (fell) for the Eider Chase last February, and has dropped a few pounds since.
Straidnahanna Straidnahanna has also slipped in the weights and has to be considered as a Catterick winner twice but the grey flopped in his only marathon attempt, pulled up in the Scottish National.
Fill The Power There’s been an even bigger drop in the weights for stablemate Fill The Power, down 12lb since October, and with Sue Smith’s stable in cracking form with four winners out of five still standing since the last day of December.
Alto Des Mottes is the youngest horse in the race but an established stayer, second last year off an identical mark. Looked all over the winner at the last but tired in soft ground on the run-in. The winner was trained by Sue Smith.
Jac The Legend The Durham National third was as short as 5-1 for this North Yorks version a year ago but fell when in the rear. Placed five times in his last six starts without winning.
Gonalston Cloud, Back to form when he won the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day, he strung a hat-trick together at this time last year, two of them here at Catterick, and seems to act on any going.
Doing Fine has place form a grade higher than this, including second in the London National at Sandown in early December, and Neil Mulholland has hit three winners in four days.
Ballyben did well in the autumn but is now on his highest ever mark and the last four runners for the Malcolm Jefferson outfit over the last fortnight have been beaten a total of 98 lengths.
Harry the Viking ended a five-year losing run in December but was beaten five lengths by Ballyben in the autumn.
Newton Thistle Towcester specialist who has has pulled up in three of his last four starts, sandwiched around a second in the Royal Artillery Gold Cup at Sandown. Races off his highest mark today.
Raktiman Sam England has a 25% strike rate with her chasers, but there’s no encouragement in the form book or on breeding for this 10-year-old.
Itstimeforapint A winner over 4m on heavy, third in the Scottish Borders National in December but, despite a seemingly low weight, is now high in the handicap on past ratings.
Scotswell Winner of this race in 2015, one of three to make all the running in the last eight years. A pound lower now and down 10lb on this time 12 months ago. Could bounce back.
VERDICT: A bull’s-eye bet on Fill The Power? It’s just got to be the perfect play from the oche. I took 20.0 on BETDAQ this morning but there were plenty of others to worry about in this cracking contest, including the morning favourite, Doing Fine.
Henry Hogarth actually trains in North Yorkshire so this is as much his Gold Cup as his Grand National and his three runners so far in 2017 have all placed (one won): Alto Des Mottes (9.8 offers) is, therefore, my second choice.
ORDER IN: 1 Fill The Power, 2 Alto des Mottes, 3 Doing Fine, 4 Gonalston Cloud.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, except the 2.50 Catterick)
BACK: 8pts win UN PROPHETE (1.05 Leicester)
BACK: 9pts win (nap) A LITTLE MAGIC (1.50 Catterick)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 5.6pts win ALTO DES MOTTES and 2.25pts win and place FILL THE POWER (2.50 Catterick)
BACK 8pts win REILLEY’S MINOR (3.20 Catterick)
BACK 8pts win TOP VILLE BEN, and 1pt win and place WHATMORE (3.40 Leicester)
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