7.4 NAP AT EXETER: Daqman avoids the deep ground at Ayr and analyses the racing at Exeter, taking a chance on a 7.4 shot for the nap and attempting to get some big outsiders (both 15.0) into the frame.
SEE HOW THEY WON: Tomorrow Daqman returns to the Cheltenham Festival, with his feature, See How They Won, in which he locates the races the winners emerged from and were prepped in.
TOUGH RACE TO GET A FLYER
1.00 Exeter The trouble with novice hurdles is that they contain good things that win and good things that lose. If you are on BETDAQ early, you have a better chance of getting prices which mean that you’ll win money in the long term.
Take Mr Clarkson in this one. The 2.52 I see this morning in the BETDAQ orange is likely to go, when punters at large on the course, in the shops and on line, are reminded of his form.
He ran second to the Tolworth winner, Finian’s Oscar, in an Irish Point in October, before giving 9lb to the runner-up when the pair finished 20 lengths clear of the remainder here in a bumper at Exeter on the first day of the year.
He’s by Jeremy, sire of Jer’s Girl and Who Dares Wins, out of a mare that’s Group related on the Flat. So why isn’t he odds on?
Firstly, he hasn’t raced over hurdles. Second of all, David Pipe. Sorry David but you’re in another form trough: 25 consecutive starters without success
And the problem with assessing this race is that most of the stables represented are local: Dunn, Gray, Hobbs and Westwood are Somerset and Pipe is on the borders of. Mulholland is just down the road near Bath. Stephens and Williams just up the M5; Frost and Fry in adjacent counties.
It’s the old question? How many runners are here just to qualify (on the three-maidens-and-in basis) for a handicap mark? Equally, how many are running locally because petrol money for serious travelling would be wasted?
Stable-in-form is Harry Fry (112311, excluding bumpers) and freegoing Ridgeway Flyer (6.0 BETDAQ this morning) should give you a place return to cover your win bet. But this will be his third hurdle!
What’s the best novice hurdle to back in? The time to bet in novice hurdles is when there’s a decent prize in a classy race and collateral form that shouts for a horse which is not favourite.
SAM CAN SAIL IN ON ADMIRAL
1.30 Exeter Oh lovely! A class-5 handicap (bring back the novice hurdlers). So what do we look for this time?
Young horses with a low mark could get on a trajectory to better things; otherwise, hope for a bit of quality; something with a big weight that has probably dropped from class 3 or, more likely, class 4 (Mr Caffrey, Aaryam).
If you take out class-4 form, Late Shipment’s figures this season in races of lower quality at 21.5f plus are 321 but we may have missed the boat: he’s 12lb higher than for his second on this course in December because of a big-field Hereford win a fortnight back.
In favour of the top three in the handicap is that they are only five and six years old, and should improve.
Karl Marx, a course winner, just seven, is capable of taking this but his wins and his places have all been on a sound surface, and his stable is in poor form right now.
Looking at the shape of the race, you wonder whether anything can catch front-runner The Model County, a 15.0 BETDAQ offer this morning. He’s been placed twice in his last three starts and is 9lb lower today than for one of them.
Among the oldies, Admiral Blake is consistent over hurdles (110324) and has scored at Exeter on the soft, and placed in class 4 there, too, with Sam Twiston-Davies booked for the first time today: 9.8 on BETDAQ appeals. I take Admiral Blake to win from Late Shipment and The Model County.
2.05 Exeter Don McCain (Heaven Scent) makes a rare visit to Exeter with a horse that has won going right-handed, but his stable is missing strike badly, with no fewer than 12 in the first four without winning since he took a race at Chepstow a week or so back.
Bobbie Boru’s Chepstow win at the same meeting now has him 7lb higher than any previous winning mark, but it’s a shocking race with five runners pulled up or tailed off (between 37 and 50 lengths off the winner) on the last day. Six in the field are still maidens.
There’s plenty of early support for New Venture who, like Heaven Scent in December, was given a chance at Listed race at Aintree, but a year earlier. New Venture (5.1 BETDAQ ) could improve.
WINSTON WINS AFTER LAY-OFFS
2.40 Exeter A 7.4 BETDAQ offer, Winston Churchill hasn’t been seen since February but won after long absences in each of the last two seasons. Today’s rider, Killian Moore did the job both times.
Tolkeins Tango likes Exeter but Victor Dartnall, another local trainer, isn’t showing any form right now. Last Shot (held by Dance Floor King) needs a sounder surface, on what we know.
Starkie likes to be up with the pace and is a much better horse on a right-handed track, with all his four wins going clockwise. Ray Diamond is ultra consistent but his form is left-handed.
Only Gorgeous may have fluked his CD win on the first day of the year; here’s nothing else in his profile. Sue Gardner put it down to the soft ground.
Twice beaten favourite Leg Lock Luke is without tongue-tie or cheekpieces, experimented with the last twice.
The morning favourite, Grand Gold, is giving weight all round and most of his form is in Points but he’s 5lb lower over fences than his mark when second over hurdles at Fontwell a week or so back.
I’ve had two sequences of four wins for the naps in the first two weeks of the new year. Now I’d like to put one in at a price, Winston Churchill, and hope to sky the profits.
Starkie at 15.0 could be placed, and the two would give me a fab forecast (I had three in a row last week and I’m also going for it again today with Admiral Blake and The Model County).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BACK 4pts win and place RIDGEWAY FLYER, and 5pts win (saver) MR CLARKSON (1.00 Exeter)
BACK 3pts win and place ADMIRAL BLAKE, and 1pt win and place THE MODEL COUNTY (1.30 Exeter)
BACK 5pts win NEW VENTURE (2.05 Exeter)
BACK 7pts win (nap) WINSTON CHURCHILL, and 1pt win and place STARKIE (2.40 Exeter)
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