CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: SEE HOW THEY WON: Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? What career span; what races; what experience is necessary to take a festival prize. Daqman checks out each big race in March, starting of course with the Gold Cup.
PITCHING FOR THREE GOALS AT LINCOLN: There were no doubts about Market Rasen today so Daqman checked out the Lincoln meeting at a time when the city has made its mark in the FA Cup. But are his three short-priced tips really just penalty kicks?
THISTLECRACK LOOKS PURE GOLD
The lure of gold. We’ll probably see Colin Tizzard trying to ‘do a Michael Dickinson’ (he trained the first five home) in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.
Here I’ve assessed stats and facts, ratings and key quirks of the number-one steeplechase. This is what came out.
KEY RACES: Some 15 of the last 17 winners had raced in the King George or the Lexus Chase: this season’s fields for those two races included Thistlecrack, Cue Card, Djakadam, Don Poli, Lord Windermere, More Of That, Outlander, Road To Riches, Taquin Du Seuil, Tea For Two, Valseur Lido, Zabana.
KEY WINS: Seven winners in the decade had scored in one or more of the Hennessy, King George, Lexus, RSA: so Blaklion, Native River, Outlander, Thistlecrack,
ACE TRACE: Six winners out of 10 had been placed at Cheltenham the previous year in either the RSA or the Ryanair: Blaklion, More Of That, Road To Riches, Valseur Lido
CAREER: Crucially, nine out of 10 winners had a career total of between four and 10 chases up to their Gold Cup victory: Blaklion, Minella Rocco, More Of That, Native River, Outlander, Thistlecrack, Vroum Vroum Mag, Zabana
Seven winners out of eight with that 10-race maximum chase total had won at least 50% of their starts: Native River, Thistlecrack, Vroum Vroum Mag.
NEGATIVES Only one Gold Cup winner in the last 34 years had been second or third in the previous year’s race: Don Poli. Five of the 10 winners had raced in their year; five had not.
RATING AND STATS (see January 5 Archive): The young pretenders look formidable, headed by the favourite, Thistlecrack, already off around 171 (he’s 174 over hurdles), though he’s had only four steeplechase appearances in public.
Since Desert Orchid, 25 of 27 winners have been single-figure age: Thistlecrack, More Of That and Outlander are 9.
Blaklion, Djakadam, Tea For Two, Valseur Lido, Vroum Vroum Mag, Zabana and Don Poli still only 8. Douvan (just seven years old) is likely to go for the Champion Chase. Native River, Minella Rocco and Alary are also seven.
Verdict: Thistlecrack ticks most of the boxes. I’ll gradually check out all the Cheltenham races on a similar basis to this, hoping to find some ante-post value. This was the easy one..
If Thistlecrack turns up, his even money is value, if the ground is not heavy. So you have to wait for the race, or take evens that you are certain of his fitness and that you are the Mother Shipton of the weather.
ANOTHER OSCAR FOR LINCOLN
Lincoln did a Leicester last night. The lesson for the punter is that, if you are organised and want to win, sheer tenacity can get you through. But tipping in low-class midweek races is as bruising as 90 minutes of marking Matt Rhead.
My Google request says it’s only 12 nautical miles (!) from Lincoln to Market Rasen through the countryside of blue remembered hills for Jim Broadbent and Bernie Taupin.
Lincoln racecourse was shut in 1965, a wilful act of negligence by Lord George Wigg and the Levy Board which was as brutal in its day as the intention of closing down Kempton Park.
Lincoln Handicaps live on all over the world but the Lincolnshire racing legacy is this fabulous little track at Market Rasen. I once attended 31 consecutive Rasen meetings, and profited by following horses which, like me, returned there again and again.
So maybe today’s CD winners Grey Monk (1.35), Cusheen Bridge (2.45) and Bowie (3.45) are as far as we need to look.
1.00 Market Rasen Travelling man Evan Williams is on a hat-trick after a double at Ayr yesterday, now with a lorry load up to Lincs from Welsh Wales: two runners, both well fancied.
Monbeg Oscar’s pedigree says he will relish the step up in trip from his Ludlow third over the minimum and beat the penalised Master Of Irony, whose win came at Catterick in what now looks like a race of losers.
1.35 Market Rasen Nigel Twiston Davies also saddles two; can also do no wrong right now, with six winners inside a week.
Wicked Willy came good at Huntingdon under Jamie Bargary who keeps the mount and keeps the weight down. Again, the breeding suggests that he will relish the step up in trip.
The CD winner Grey Monk is a conundrum: maybe his Rasen romp last May was a fluke, as it was first time in a visor, and he wasn’t the same horse next time out.
But maybe his defeat back on the same course was a race too soon, coming only nine days after that earlier victory.
2.40 Market Rasen Cusheen Bridge goes for his third CD success, but his wins were in novice chases and this is not a handicap; his rating has him a stone and more behind two or there of these.
Another novice, Kilcrea Vale, is with Nicky Henderson, who has managed a dozen winners already in 2017. Vale’s runaway win at Ludlow has earned him 142, which seems a lot but he’s getting weight from all bar Hester Flemen, a glass horse not seen for more than a year.
But another Evan Williams, King’s Odyssey, will be a hard act to beat for the inexperienced Kilcrea Vale.
King’s Odyssey was tracking Frodon in a Graded race at Cheltenham when he fell in early December. Has had a holiday since and, a Wincanton winner, now returns to a right-handed nippy track which should suit him well. Class should tell unless he does an Ipswich.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BACK 9pts win MONBEG OSCAR (1.00 Market Rasen)
BACK 9pts win (nap) WICKED WILLY (1.35 Market Rasen)
BACK 7pts win KING’S ODYSSEY (2.40 Market Rasen)
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