ALL EYES ON LEOPARDSTOWN: Daqman landed two returns yesterday but the score remains 10-4 in the challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post, in which he’s 38 points ahead. They clash today in the 2.40 and 3.10 at Leopardstown, in which Daqman tries to land the 1-2-3 for each. English racing is lost to the weather.
STELLAR CAN STAR AT THE TRIP
Coming out to play? When Pricewise does a Sunday shift you can be sure those bookie boys have found some tricky (impossible?) handicaps to advertise. So here we are with two big-field wallet-breakers at Leopardstown.
First I hope to see my Fortune Cookie called Yorkhill (2.10) win on the road to the JLT or, less likely, the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival.
Yorkhill, eased down to win 14 lengths at Fairyhouse before Christmas in his first chase, jumped left at times, so Leopardstown should suit better.
The opposition insists that Yorkhill will need to bring his A-game to the sports today. I like to hear that: it means there will be some punting against the favourite, which makes Yorkhill worthwhile as a banker.
2.40 Leopardstown Chase Young horses have three out of five market leaders but the race rarely goes that way, according to the stats: only one under the age of nine has scored in the decade.
Yet, at the same time, you want a horse that’s run in eight or fewer handicap chases. Another 100% box to tick is that he must have run in the last 49 days. Over the shorter trip – the race was 3m before 2009 – pace horses are best; hold-up horses have less of a chance.
Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins total over 260 winners between them this season for more than £5m in prizemoney but neither is on the scoresheet for this race.
They saddle more than half today’s field between them– 11 out of 19 –to try to improve on Mullins’ 0-1-10 (just one of 10 runners placed) and Elliott’s 0-1-2.
Elliott came to the table for the first time last year with two runners, one of them, Killer Crow, finishing second. Killer Crow has failed to place in 12 chases since.
He’s started between 2-1 favourite and 10-1 nine times, making him the most expensive punt on the Irish racing scene (name me another to beat that)!
Yet the winner of last year’s race, Colm Murphy’s Empire Of Dirt, has climbed 27lb since that day and gone on to his hat-trick, including the Ladbrokes Troytown Chase, now well fancied for the Ryanair. Ironically, he’d switched stables to Elliott before the Ladbrokes race!
Elliott had a shocking day at Navan yesterday, missing strike badly with returtns of 2333203, including one favourite and one second favourite.
The jockey on the six placed horses in that sequence, Jack Kennedy, rides A Toi Phil, a short-priced favourite for this in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
A Toi Phil is a hold-up horse out of novice Graded chases but his two wins in November didn’t amount to much at the start of the autumn-winter campaign.
Similarly, stablemate Clarcam hasn’t done much since back-to-back success on good ground in the early summer. Shadow Catcher is still suffering under a mark higher than for winning a three-runner novice chase, his sole success from 16 starts since June 2015.
Space Cadet has won over obstacles just once (1-9) and that was on heavy ground (well behind A Toi Phil at Punchestown).
Turning from Elliott to Mullins, Tennis Cap is another ideally wanting softer ground. He’s been beaten a total of 68 lengths in his two starts this winter, so has to bounce back.
New Kid In Town made no impression (finally fell) in a handicap like this one over Christmas, and Mullins’ main hope must surely by Rolly Baby, though a novice with just four chases under his belt is a rare winner of a race like this (the same applies to Total Recall)..
So what can beat the Elliott-Mullins mob? The ground suits Bentelimar and Hash Brown (though both are hard to win with) and both ground and the step up in trip favour Lake Takapuna.
Lake Takapuna (10.0 offers on BETDAQ) has come to hand at the right time, and Jonathan Moore is booked. A similar eye-catcher is David Mullins for Stella Notion (7.4).
Mullins has been getting on really well with Stellar, including fourth in the big handicap here over Christmas (3m), jumping boldly from the front, suggesting an improved horse. Today’s 2m 5f looks ideal.
Back to Willie Mullins: rank outsider is The Paparazzi Kid (38.0), who loves this kind of contest, does well after a long break. Only his third run today since the 2015 Galway Plate. If not this, then a Cheltenham Festival handicap.
ALLBLAK IS BIG AT BETDAQ 16.5
3.10 Leopardstown Top weights have a tough time in this hurdle but those just below that, weighted 10st 8lb to 10st 12lb, have won six times in the last seven years
Willie Mullins brings class to this contest. Allblak Des Places won a Grade 1 over CD at the end of last season and has had a run back.
Tony Martin’s Golden Spear is another Graded performer who is closest in the betting to prolific winner, stablemate Heartbreak City, the Ebor winner and Melbourne Cup runner-up.
The 1-2-3-5-6 from the big Leopardstown handicap hurdle at the Christmas meeting are all back for more but all close together at the weights.
When they’re all in a heap, you’ve got to find the improver. I’d prefer to stick with the Martin duo and Allblak des Places, a tempting 16.5.
BETDAQ TIPS (staked to win 20 points each, except the nap)
BANKER 20pts win (nap) YORKHILL (2.10 Leopardstown)
BACK 3.5pts win STELLAR NOTION, 2pts win and place LAKE TAPUNA, and 1pt win and place THE PAPARAZZI KID (2.40 Leopardstown)
BACK 3.5pts win GOLDEN SPEAR, and 1.3pts win and place ALLBLAK DES PLACES, with 3pts win (stakes saver) HEARTBREAK CITY (3.10 Leopardstown)
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