ABC GUIDE TO NEWBURY HURDLE: Daqman has notched up 399 winners against Pricewise in feature races. Now he’s digging deeply into the Newbury Hurdle, anticipating Saturday as his next chance to make it 400. Here’s his ABC Guide to the 10 in the race that fit the age group for winners.
DOUBLE WHAMMY AT LUDLOW: Daqman’s nap today is at Ludlow in a race in which where he lays the odds-on favourite who, deleting just one win in December 2015, has form figures of 23232320232.
DAQMAN POISED ON 399 WINS..
Can Daqman land Saturday’s Newbury hurdle? He’s dancing rings around Pricewise.. again! Daqman has waltzed clear of the Racing Post man in value tipping this season, 57 points ahead (Daqman +39, Pricewise -18).
The scores are 14-5 in NH exchanges 2016-17 so far, which puts Daqman on 399 returns to Pricewise 160 since he challenged the trade-paper tipster in November 2013. In that time, he’s won for six consecutive seasons. This is the seventh, and a lucky one already.
Right now we are celebrating five winning weeks out of five in the new year for his naps and bankers, but just look at his big–race hits in that time..
WON 20-1 Shantou Flyer (what a start on New Year’s Day!)
WON 10-1 Ziga Boy (Great Yorkshire, from 13.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 7-1 Alee Bleue
WON 6-1 Dancing Shadow (Edinburgh National, from 8.0 BETDAQ)
WON 9-2 Auvergnat (Punchestown cross-country)
WON 4-1 Goodtoknow (one-two for 21-1 forecast)
WON 3-1 Ball d’Arc (Dan Moore Memorial), following December hit:
WON 14-1 Frodon (Cheltenham Gold Cup Handicap)
WILL NEWBURY HURDLE BE 400?
TOP TEN in the ‘A’ team. I condemned half the field for Saturday’s Newbury Hurdle in my Monday stats article. Now here’s how the remaining top 10 rate, using those stats as an ABC guide, based on the last 10 years (look out for my verdict on Saturday):
A Aged 5 or 6 (10 out of 10)
B Carried 10-10 or less (8-10)
C First or second season hurdlers (10-10)
D Prominent racers (7-10)
X Factor (trainer in form)
ABCDX Ballyandy
Nigel Twiston-Davies is very bullish about this Grade-2 placed in both Neptune and Supreme Novice trials at Cheltenham and Sandown. Won the 2016 Cheltenham Champion Bumper and fourth in the Aintree version. Prefers fast ground.
ABC Beltor
After back-to-back wins in early 2015, Beltor disappointed in the Triumph Hurdle (first-time hood) and dropped 10lb, until returning to form on AW (Flat) in December, followed by fair third over the sticks at Kempton (Eddiemaurice and William H Bonney behind).
ABC Eddiemaurice
Took time to come to himself but three out of four last year, including class 2 at Ascot and a pound better off with third horse Beltor, neck and a nose behind fifth at Kempton. Suited by strong pace.
CDX Zubayr
Grade-2 winner a year or so back, and second when fell at the last in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton. Fading fifth (mistake) behind Brain Power at Sandown on the last day, and looks as though he needs further, jumping at a slightly slower pace.
ACX Ballyhill
Progressive in the autumn, winning back to back, including 2m 5f at Ludlow (class 3). Not in same form, facing tough tasks since.
ACX Consul de Thaix
Only five races in his life, then last twice second to Champion Hurdle hope and stablemate Brain Power, just threeparts of a length behind receiving 10lb at Sandown (Zubayr, fifth, is now 11lb better off) . Further behind Brain Power at Ascot on the last day (Hargam in rear)
ACX Movewiththetimes
Two out of three over hurdles either side of defeat in Supreme trial at Cheltenham in November when hampered (Ballyandy, third, is now 3lb worse off). A big, strong horse, so a work in progress with chasing in mind.
ACX William H Bonney
Winner at Towcester and Cheltenham so not lacking in stamina and a County Hurdle hope. Travelled strongly when beating 14–strong field on the championship course and only 5lb higher.
ADX Hargam
Triumph Hurdle third (2015), overfaced against Faugheen and Annie Power (10th of 12 in Champion Hurdle 2016). Back to form in a Listed in October but twice unable to cope with Graded company since.
LET’S GO SPUD BASHING AT 8.0
4.30 Carlisle Trainers have travelled more than 2,500 miles, including from Devon, Hereford, and Berkshire for this £10,000 contest.
Alfie Spinner, Join The Clan, Rigadin De Beauchene and Russe Blanc are the only previous winners at the 3m 2f trip or further.
Blakemount, Hester Flemen, Russe Blanc and Swing Hard are the course winners, and trainers in form Kerry Lee, Fergal O’Brien, Sue Smith, Nicky Richards and Venetia Williams saddle seven of the 10 runners.
Common to all tick boxes is Russe Blanc, who was disappointing when going for a repeat in the Warwick Classic one year on last month.
Still leading that day at today’s trip was Rigadin De Beauchene, now back to his winning mark at Haydock 14 months ago but with ground to make up on Chase The Spud when that one was runner up at Haydock in November.
He’s 12 years old now, as is Alfie Spinner, who has won the last twice after lay-offs. Both are lightly raced glass horses these days and though one of them could slog his way to going close. The snag is: which one is in condition to do so?
Such as Bigironshiop and Cyclops – both still only six – and the lightly raced Hester Flemen (4 jumps starts) and Join The Clan (five chases without success) don’t appear to have the maturity for this.
The doubt about dual Carlisle winner Swing Hard is his stamina and, as is his custom, he is expected to take a share of the lead. Blakemount has a similar profile
That leaves my fork stabbing 8.0 BETDAQ offer Chase The Spud for the burgeoning stable of Fergal O’Brien, who has had five winners since the turn of the year
HORSE FOR A DOUBLE WHAMMY
2.10 Ludlow Label des Obeaux (11 times placed for only one win) suffers from ataxia (muscles fail to coordinate under stress) which goes some way to explaining why he is such a bridesmaid.
With Hit The Highway clocking up parking tickets (form P-P) and the winning form of Optimistic Bias on good ground only, then surely the improver Querry Horse can take this, stepped up to a trip he needs.
With Querry Horse 4.5 this morning and Label Des Obeaux 1.53, time to try a double whammy, in which we lay the favourite and bet something else against him.
3.30 Chelmsford Charlie Appleby (form figures 1213101) has his first runner of the year at Chelmsford (strike rate there 22%) with Mis En Rose, who is headed for the Lingdfield AW championships :
DAQMAN’S BETS
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 6pts LABEL DES OBEAUX and BACK 6pts win (nap) QUERRY HORSE (2.10 Ludlow)
BACK 12pts win MIS EN ROSE (3.30 Chelmsford)
BACK 3pts win and place CHASE THE SPUD (4.30 Carlisle)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 1pt win trebles all four above
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
