GIVE ME BACK THE OLD NATIONAL! The Grand National weights were unveiled last night at the Victoria and Albert Museum and Daqman wishes he could take the race back in time to the beginning of the century when he had winners at 16-1, 33-1, 40-1 and 50-1
BUT 50.0 DAQMAN RULES AGAIN: He explains why he then lost the plot as the race changed and he had to built up a new set of stats, which finally helped him crack it last year, tipping everyone who reads this column Rule The World (pictured at the weights launch in London yesterday), taken at 50.0 on BETDAQ.
ELLIOTT HAS TWO IN TOP STATS: Today he tests the stats early with an ABC look at 10 that tick the boxes. The weights were dominated by Gordon Elliott (11 entries). He won’t run the top one Outlander but, along with Venetia Williams, has two in the winningmost stats area.
AINTREE HITS: 16-1, 33-1, 40-1, 50-1
I’m sentimental for the old Grand National. How the race has been deliberately changed as a spectacle can be seen in the results this century.
For the first nine years from 2000 until 2008, all bar two of the winners were found in the ratings band 138 to 140. Quite an incredible light source of probability which enabled the professional gambler to see clearly in the dark recesses of racing form.
To put it another way, if you backed all the horses with those ratings, you were successful seven times in nine seasons.
On a personal level, taking these stats as my creed helped me to take enormous prices about Bindaree (20-1 SP from 33-1), Montys Pass (16-1 from 40-1), Hedgehunter (7-1 from 16-1), and Silver Birch (33-1 from 50-1).
But changes to the track tipped the scales, literally. Horses with higher weights started winning. In fact, in the last eight years, six Nationals have gone to animals rated 148 to 160.
I had to pull myself around to locating the source of the new wave of National winners. It’s not quite as simple as switching your focus to the higher weights because, as the quality horses got hold of the races, so quality horses were seen as having a better chance and so quality entries increased.
Quality, quality, quality.. yet the fact remains that 13 of the last 16 winners have carried between 10st 6lb and 11st 5lb.
Let’s start today with a first ABC attempt. Bear in mind that the weights may change as higher-weighted horses drop out, pushing others above the 11st 5lb bar. If your fancy is not in the top 60 today, it almost certainly won’t run.
ELLIOTT EMPIRE WELL PLACED
The quality is at a record level this year. The number of horses rated above 150 is the highest ever (34), compared with exactly half that number (17) a decade ago. Some 88% of the runners have marks above 135.
The top five, off 162 to 166, are all Irish, and contain the recent winner and second in the Lexus Chase, Outlander and the Cheltenham Gold Cup third, Don Poli, plus the Troytown Chase winner, Empire Of Dirt, second in Sunday’s Irish Gold Cup.
Here are the top 10 to study closely if the winner is to comply with the following stats, showing previous National winning trainers Gordon Elliott and Venetia Williams with two runners each ideally placed..
A Six of the last eight have been rated 148 to 160.
B Horses aged 10, 11 and 12 have won nine of the last 13.
C 13 out of 16 have carried between 10st 6lb and 11st 5lb.
ABC Ballynagour (David Pipe)
Headway when blundered and unseated rider at 19th fence in last year’s National. Out of form this winter.
ABC Devils Bride (Henry de Bromhead)
Galway Plate fourth but won later at that meeting in July. Not successful beyond 2m 5f.
ABC Houblon des Obeaux (Venetia Williams)
Ascot Gold Cup Handicap Chase winner 2013. Back to form last year when fourth in 3m 5f Warwick Classic (same position this year). Denman Chase winner at Newbury and third to Native River in the Welsh National. Ideal type in wet conditions.
ABC Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty)
Cheltenham star a few seasons back, winning RSA (2013) and Gold Cup (2014). Places only since but given a chance by the National handicapper, down 3lb below his official mark, totalling a 15lb drop on his Cheltenham rating last season.
ABC Maggio (Patrick Griffin)
Has gone well twice at the Aintree festival; completed in the 2015 Topham Chase over the National fences and won over the regulation chase course at last year’s festival.
ABC Perfect Candidate (Fergal O’Brien)
Could indeed be the perfect candidate; a winner twice at Cheltenham but twice behind in the 4m NH chase. However, beaten there only a nose in December (3m 2f) in first-time cheekpieces.
ABC Tenor Nivernais (Venetia Williams)
In the first four five times at Cheltenham. Winning form at 2m 5f but close third in the Ascot Silver Cup (3m) in December.
AB Bless The Wings (Gordon Elliott)
Runner Up in 2016 Irish Grand National who had finished the course over the National fences in the Topham Trophy the previous Spring. Placed in 3m 6f banks races three times at Cheltenham. Not in top 60 at the weights so unlikely to get a run.
AB Empire Of Dirt (Gordon Elliott)
Only 14 chases at the age of 10 and huge improver last year. Up two stone after a hat-trick started in the Leopardstown Chase and completed in the Ladbrokes Troytown. Went down narrowly on Sunday in the Irish Gold Cup.
AB Gallant Oscar (Tony Martin)
Leinster National winner, Thyestes fourth, Cheltenham Festival third and Pat Taaffe Chase winner at Punchestown. All that up to May 2015, and not a lot since. But well fancied last year (16-1 SP) when blundered and unseated 18th. Not in top 60 at the weights so unlikely to get a run.
RATING: Winners’ official Grand National ratings this century (2016 first): 148, 160, 143, 137, 157, 150, 153, 148, 139, 138, 138, 144, 139, 139, 136, 140, 139.
AGE: Winners’ ages this century: 9, 8, 11, 11, 11, 10, 10, 9, 9, 10, 10, 9, 12, 10, 8, 11, 9.
A ROC SOLID BANKER BET
2.10 Towcester I’m banking on Bandon Roc. Flobury is a consistent nearly horse and, though a first-time visor may perk up Benability, his stable seems to be in a slump.
Its 12 runners still standing in the last fortnight have finished a total of 547 lengths behind the winner.
2.50 and 3.50 Newcastle Tim Vaughan, whose appalling record that is, takes a 600-mile round trip with two horses to Newcastle, where he has only a modest strike rate.
Is this wise, Tim? I’m sure you’ll be trying to prove something here but I shall lay both William Money (2.50) and Chakisto (3.50).
2.40 Towcester Pulling Power may do better returned to the track and conditions in which he had his sole success 13 months ago but it’s another mile to jump and travel today.
So he’s unlikely to come charging up the hill and get the hat-trick seeker, What A Diva, up 11lb for winning a grade lower here and at Market Rasen. Two Swallows also has to step up a level, and so far Act Now wins only at Plumpton.
A Presenting out of an Old Vic mare, Queens Present, a 2m 4f winner as a novice, should be able to win at today’s trip. The same applies to the Flemensfirth six-year-old Socksy.
Socksy was miles in front of Queens Present (11.5 offered on BETDAQ) at Warwick in November but is 11lb worse off today, a lot of baggage in the mud.
3.30 and 4.30 Wolverhampton A couple of decent races, at a level in which form should workout.
Course-specialist Mythical Madness (3.30) holds Third Time Lucky and (now an absentee) Our Channel on the book, but the glass horse Andastra is a worry.
Percy Veer (4.30) is a bridesmaid extraordinary, 11 times placed for just the one win way back in July 2014, but he still beats Oceane on Goodwood form over further, and Oceane seems to prefer a sound surface.
Isharah was a CD winner in January but is two grades higher here because of a 10lb rise. Byron Flyer has to jump up three levels.
My man in the long grass tells me to be on Calvinist (BETDAQ 5.4 taken), a glass horse but a class-2 winner at York in October and with a trainer of the future.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength)
BANKER 10pts win (nap) BANDON ROC (2.10 Towcester)
BACK 1pt win and place QUEENS PRESENT (2.40 Towcester)
LAY to lose 10pts WILLIAM MONEY (2.50 Newcastle)
BACK 9pts win MYTHICAL MADNESS (3.30 Wolverhampton)
LAY to lose 10pts CHAKISTO (3.50 Newcastle)
BACK 4.5pts win CALVINIST (4.30 Wolverhampton)
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