‘CHELTENHAM CAVALRY’ HORSES TO FOLLOW: Daqman continues his survey of horses with Cheltenham potential, which includes refining his old Fortune Cookies list. Among today’s are two that are due to run on Saturday.
BLAKLION LAID OUT FOR THE NATIONAL: Daqman yesterday looked at the older horses for the Grand National, where they fit the stats but, today and next week, he locates two younger horses which have been laid out for the race, starting below with Blaklion.
BALLYANDY BET FOR THE SUPREME: Today’s horses to follow also include a bet in the Supreme Novice Hurdle on last week’s big hurdle winner, Ballyandy, better value on BETDAQ than with all the Oddschecker-listed bookmakers.
CUE FOR A WEEKEND DOUBLE
Here’s a Saturday special. Some of my horses to follow are not in alpha order but are introduced within a theme or a race being discussed. I soon revert to the ABC style and, coincidentally, that throws up Blaklion and Cue Card today.
Coincidentally, because both are due to run on Saturday: Blaklion in the Haydock Park Grand National Trial and Cue Card in the Ascot Chase.
My expectations are that Blaklion will run well at Haydock without winning, so his ‘Cavalry’ reckoning starts after that. Cue Card will win and is then deleted for Cheltenham.
ASTHURIA
I took this one out of the Punchestown Festival race won by Jer’s Girl last Spring, and she won on her seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse. But the Fortune Cookie dream was shortlived.
Has fallen the last twice, when with every chance in quality company, and is still a hopeful for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. But she doesn’t deserve a place in my festival ‘cavalry’ as one to rely on.
BALLYANDY
The Press declared the hat-trick winner Clyne was flattered by his length second to The New One last month after the winner had been slammed by Yanworth in the Christmas Hurdle.
The handicapper has cut The New One’s rating to 163 but his 164 for Yanworth then looks mean. Even meaner is the 148 for Clyne. If he can’t have 154 (pound for pound correct) for being a length off The New One at Haydock, then let’s split the difference and make him a 151.
In that case, Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes, the one-two six lengths clear of Clyne in Saturday’s big hurdle, are 157 animals not their official 147.
Ballyandy is 8-1 and 10-1 for the most part in the Supreme Novice Hurdle betting across the swathe of bookies on Oddschecker. But he’s 12.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange and I’ll take that to win 100.
MOVEWITHTHETIMES
Even if the ratings anomaly isn’t an anomaly at all (!), and the 147 is nearer the true mark, then Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes are still well ahead of the 141 given to the benchmark for England’s top Supreme Novice Hurdle contender, Moon Racer.
I want them both in my yard; I think one or both will beat Moon Racer and the favourite, Melon, has run only once in a real race.
WILLIAM H BONNEY
I think there’s another to be taken out of Saturday’s big hurdle: William H Bonney, a handsome winner at Cheltenham in January, had looked progressive but didn’t run his race on Saturday. It came too soon after the Cheltenham performance.
BLAKLION
This one was in my early Fortune Cookies until frustration and disappointment: partly because they don’t run him; partly because he shows the one pace.
All is now revealed. They didn’t want to run him and risk incurring a penalty for the Grand National. If that’s his kind of trip, then the one pace shown over shorter is a plus!
This list is largely for Cheltenham but I don’t want to drop Blaklion then reinstate him again, again. Let’s see what happens on Saturday, when he may meet other Aintree contenders, such as Houblon des Obeaux and Vieux Lion Rouge. He can no longer incur a penalty for winning but may be ring rusty.
CUE CARD
I think Cue Card now bears no comparison these days to the likes of stablemates Thistlecrack and Native River. Therefore, the Ascot Chase on Saturday is his Gold Cup, though he may try to get money for third or fourth at Cheltenham, should Colin Tizzard wish to do a Michael Dickinson, who trained the first five home.
* Already given the big tick: Altior and Brain Power (see Tuesday Daqman Archive).
11.0 MAGGIO VALUE AT KELSO
2.35 Leicester Questions to be answered. Why has Tom George dropped a Kayf Tara (Storming Strumpet) back half a mile to the minimum here, when I’ve been waiting for the mare to go up half a mile to the 3m she’s expected to appreciate?
Second the last twice, can Texas Forever make all the running and step out of his bridesmaid costume? What says he can is his switch to the right-handed Oadby track, and his Southwell second (left handed) to the sequence winner Un Prophete, who runs in the 3.45.
3.00 Kelso (Ivan Straker Memorial) Maggio made my Grand National ABC of older horses with the right weight and rating for Aintree (see Daqman Archive for yesterday) and comes over from Ireland.
After his good second at Cheltenham recently, Paul Nicholls Saphir Du Rheu is red hot favourite, actually travelling a total of 300 miles further than Maggio.
Nicholls, who has a 47% strike rate here, also runs Vicenzo Mio (1.55) earlier on but three of the four runners in that race are separated by only 1.5 points in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
In this one, I’ll have a bit of win and place Maggio at 11.0 the win with evens a place paying much better (with two chances) than Saphir’s long odds on to win.
3.55 Lingfield A class 2 that sees Calling Out step up in trip, with nothing in the form book or in the stud book to warrant it, so we have to regard the race as an experiment.
Retrieve last won in 2012, is nine years old now, and let the side down on his comeback, unplaced 6-4 favourite in a modest claimer.
Dashing Star, too, has done nothing since way back when (2013 was his last success) but the handicapper refuses to relent, and he has the same mark that he had two years ago, which helps explain why he flopped in two handicaps last year.
You’d fancy Cohesion to turn around recent Lingfield placings with Rock Steady but there‘s very little between them. Cohesion has never won in England; Rock Steady is very hard to win with, a bridesmaid with six seconds wrapped around that Lingfield success.
So I’m moving all in on 3.1 BETDAQ offer Watersmeet, who beat Rock Steady a nose giving him a stone at Wolverhampton in December. Today he concedes just 3lb, and will no doubt try to make all.
4.20 Leicester What have they done to help Lady Robyn? Her jockey reported that she had a breathing problem on her local track, Chepstow, only six weeks ago.
But here she is sent up from Welsh Wales on a solo mission of 400 miles (round trip) for Peter Bowen (three winners in the last nine days).
Trainer George and jockey Adrian Heskin, who have a 60% record combining at Leicester, are responsible for Song Saa who got going late at Huntingdon and seemed to be running through tired horses.
But first-time tongue-tie helped Song Saa no end that day, whereas Lady Robyn has been tongie-tied the last twice and still had her rider complaining about her breathing.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 7pts win TEXAS FOREVER (2.35 Leicester)
BET 2pts win and 6pts place MAGGIO (3.00 Kelso)
BET 9pts win UN PROPHETE (3.45 Leicester)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) WATERSMEET (3.55 Lingfield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win trebles and 1pt win acca Saphir Du Rheu (3.00 Kelso), Un Prophete (3.45 Leicester), Watersmeet (3.55 Lingfield) and Song Saa (4.20 Leicester)
ANTE-POST TON-UP BET (to win 100): 9pts win BALLYANDY (Supreme Novice Hurdle, Cheltenham)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
