THINGS ARE NOT ALWAYS WHAT THEY SEEM: Today Daqman tries to paint a picture of the chancers on the old racing scene alongside what is normal today, and he is concerned that stewardship of zero tolerance doesn’t always allow for horses being flesh and blood, not machines.
TOMORROW: POLYTRACK CHAMPIONSHIPS: The AW Championships at Lingfield take place for the fourth time with what is expected to be over 80 starters competing for more than £600,000 in win prizemoney alone.
TODAY: On a quiet day of punting for DAQMAN he finds bets at Chelmsford and Towcester where the ground is good to firm.
WARNING: HORSES ARE NOT MACHINES
There’s an old story about non-triers. Are you sitting comfortably then I’ll begin. Once upon a time there was a trainer who was not doing well.
He needed a big winner to pay for outgoings in his stable (actually, it was to pay for his gin habit, not so much about the cost of Canadian oats and the wages).
He found an equally desperate jockey and plotted a coup with a fairly decent animal in his yard, intending first to run him down the field, and hide him among plenty of runners to ‘get his price up‘ for the big day..
He told the nervous rider: ‘Keep hold of him; tuck him in behind; appear to pick him up but bob up and down to make sure the stewards think you’re riding him out… finish about fifth or sixth.’
Came the race and jockey Joe got a sit in the bunch against the rails and, even if he’d wanted to, couldn’t get him out in time to be effective up the straight.
Whispered a well-pleased trainer: ‘What do you think? Would you have beaten the horses that finished in front of you if you’d tried?’
‘No doubt about that, guv’nor,’ said Joe, ‘but I don’t know about them there beggars behind.. it’s them that would worry me!’
Just how many were ‘at it’ in Joe’s race? Does this sort of thing still go on? If so, what can be done? What can TV do to help? What about you, as a punter?
Story number two, this one true, concerns a well-known ‘handicap trainer’. One of his lads told me: ‘That thing in the 2 o’clock could win as he likes but the guv’nor thinks he can’t ‘get on’. So we’ll wait for another day, and spread the bet around a bit”
We waited but still no word from the lad, no money down, and no real effort from the horse. The same a third time until..
Finally, the cash went down. So did the price.. And, I’m sorry to say, so did the horse! The lad’s explanation: ‘We’ve stopped him so many times, he doesn’t know how to pass another horse!’ He waggishly declared: ‘He’s lost his wing mirrors.’
Times have changed but stewardship of the running and riding of a horse is still essential. As the Irish Trainers Association prepares to meet over anomalies in the new ‘non-trier’ rules, I would say that mobile patrols and stricter stewardship have considerably reduced offences, and stricter rules now being enforced are in the interests of trainers and punters.
But the old problem arises in that, the stricter the rules, the more certain a regulatory body must be to administer them fairly and consistently.
And the problem with such consistency is that it may in the end rely on zero tolerance, rules to be followed blind, in the minutest detail, or complaints will seem justified.
Hence, in doping regulations, for instance, one Mars bar, even one Polo mint, injudiciously gifted to the horse can have him disqualified. Or even get the trainer disqualified!
What can television do for the punter and for public transparency? It can spend enough money on cameras to have more than the side-on and head-on view of the finish. We need to see the horses coming in BEHIND those who are in the frame, particularly in the reprise after the result is known.
What can punters do, on track or watching TV? Make notes of what you see, and complain every time. Read between the lines in the Press analysis. Spot any patterns, such as which trainers keep on figuring in your notes.
Above all, regarding your financial interest, when pricing up a race, increase the odds required to allow for anything ‘unexpected’ and mark any ‘hidden horses’ who may be better than the bare form.
Above all, don’t bet in very small fields and don’t bet in very large fields. In one, stunts can be pulled, or the false pace can give false results.. In the other, horses can be buried, whether intentionally or not, particularly at a switch-back track like Goodwood, by bunching.
Don’t blame the trainer or jockey if you are talking about two year olds and maidens. They have to be educated and the stewards have to turn a blind eye to their greenness. That can lead to inconsistency.
Clearly it is not an exact science. Nothing much in racing is an exact science. So don’t bet as if it is.
Bet at the value odds offered in BETDAQ, where the prices offered allow for discrepancies in the race and mistakes on your own part. Horses are not machines and racing is straighter than some people think. As I write on this subject in the future, I will mention a..
CASE IN POINT (lessons from an actual event): In the maiden at Nottingham (1.50) yesterday, standout horses on breeding and value, Al Galayel (Luca Cumani) and Tango Fire (Richard Hannon) were both beaten.
Note that that a horse which had already raced won as favourite. That is typical of a maiden, where racecourse experience is invaluable and where market support is indicative.
Al Galayel was easy to back and didn’t break too well first time. He is with a stable which doesn’t hurry its horses and doesn’t have many first-time-out winners (form or no form).
Kept on well and one for the notebook.
Try to see it in the parade and in the race on any channel or results link you can find. Ditto Tango Fire (stumbled start, kept on well final furlong). Both raced as if they will be winning.
The winner, Valcartier, won readily and there is no reason why he shouldn’t go on from there after the success of this second run.
The point being that the second run (particularly of a two-year-old) is the one that reveals his future, even if he was an easy winner on the debut.
First experiences that seem ok can have left fear in the animal, or he simply remembers that he had to overcome a stitch (like any athlete) and he decides: I’m not doing that again!
I had a two year old who looked very promising first time. But on her second visit to the racecourse she was terrified: broke out in such a sweat, we nicknamed her Persil. She rinsed us, unintentionally of course.
VERDICT: Look out for those bluebloods down the field. That was normal education for a horse first time yesterday. Nothing wrong with that. But your notebook should also say: So authoritative was Valcartier that he may be the main one to follow.
Said jockey William Buck: ‘He’s a big baby but beat a big field all the way and there should be a fair bit of improvement in him.’ It will be interesting to see whether Al Galayel or Tango Fire can improve past him. If they do, don’t blame Valcartier’s trainer. That’s how it goes.
FIENDISH TO EXPLOIT FITNESS EDGE
Just five runners head to post for the maiden fillies event at Chelmsford this afternoon and it’s the Mark Johnston trained Fiendish that makes most appeal with a recent run under her belt.
She was only beaten a head by the Sir Michael Stoute trained Interweave here earlier in the month and should be suited by the extra two furlongs today. The winner had been placed second on her previous three starts and the form might be above average for the track.
The danger is likely to most come from the Godolphin runner Pure Shores who was fourth here in November on her debut over seven furlongs, She is bred to get further but I prefer the fitness edge of Fiendish today.
It would be remiss of me not to mention the ‘other’ Johnston horse in the race. That’s Curlew River who ran a cracker at Newmarket on debut but then disappointed on her return to the track when sent off favourite and tries the all-weather for the first time today.
ALL CHANGE AT TOWCESTER
It’s all change at Towcester where the ground is now good too firm which sees small fields.
With this in mind I’m not sure I like the chances of Kapricorne in the three mile handicap chase at 4.50pm. The few times he has raced on a faster surface he has disappointed.
The difficulty is trying to find one of the other three to beat him, Some Finnish is woefully out of form being pulled up in his last three starts. Feeling Peckish, a 13-year-old looked outclassed which leaves, by default, Minmore Grey who I’ll take a chance with.
His overall form is modest but crucially he does have some semblance of form on a faster surface. He finished third at Wincanton and Taunton on quicker ground (although beaten quite far) and can win this weak event.
DAQMAN TIPS
BET 8pts win (nap) FIENDISH (3.10 Chelmsford)
BET 4pts win MINMORE GREY (4.50 Towcester)
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