AW TITLE BANKER AS THE LAST IS FIRST: Daqman analyses the AW Championships at Lingfield today, hoping for a lucky seven hit through the card. But you have to wait until the last race for him to convey to you his banker!
THREE-DAY EASTER BIG-RACE WEEKEND: Tomorrow: six series finals at Haydock and the Queen’s Prize at Kempton. Sunday and Monday, the Gold Cup and Irish Grand National meeting at Fairyhouse.
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Jolly good luck! Only six favourites have won in the three-year history of the AW Championships, and five of them were concentrated on two races, the Marathon (2.10) and the Middle Distance (4.40).
It’s only commonsense that, at middle to long distances, there are fewer hard-luck stories. The horses can settle into their running style, and the form has a chance to work out, granted an even pace.
TRAINERS (3 years): Charlie Appleby 2, Marco Botti 2, Richard Fahey 2
JOCKEYS (3 years): William Buick 2, Adam Kirby 2, Ryan Moore 2
EARLY BIRDS: 3.10 Lancelot Du Lac, 3.40 Nimr, 4.40 Convey
1.40 Lingfield (Apprentice Championship)
STATS New race
FORM AND VERDICT Great to see the apprentices shine in the opener on today’s valuable card rather than the race tagged on to the end.
There’s likely to be plenty of pace on from the go so I’m favouring the low drawn runners.
Hakam (drawn 5) bids for a hat-trick but has only scraped home by a nose and neck for his latest wins and a further 3lb hike in the weights may anchor him.
There should again be little to choose between Take The Helm and War Glory who were split by a head when first and second over course and distance last week but both are drawn high today and last week they were 3 and 1.
Of the lower drawn runners I like Holiday Magic the best. He comes from a stable in form and has a top class apprentice in Nathan Evans onboard. He’s not a Lingfield regular but did win over course and distance here when trained by Charlie Appleby.
2.10 Lingfield (AW Marathon Championship)
STATS You couldn’t fancy the old boys, over the age of six. They made up half the field last year and not one of them got into the frame.
DRAW winning stalls 2, 8, 8
FORM AND VERDICT Natural Scenery lurks at the bottom of the racecard but is very much one to keep on the right side of. She only had to be shaken up to win a two mile handicap at Newcastle last time out and was value for much more than the two and a half length winning margin.
Probert may need to be patient as she is drawn 11 but she looks to have plenty of class and scope for further improvement.
2.40 Lingfield (Fillies’ And Mares’ Championship)
STATS Four-year-olds have swept the board in this (3 out of 3) including last year’s winner Volunteer Point who is back for a repeat but in poor recent form.
DRAW winning stalls 3, 3, 8
FORM AND VERDICT The race revolves around Muffri’Ha who gets the perfect draw in one. She shows plenty of pace from the stalls and that could well prove pivotal. She also has a touch of class as she has been showing in Dubai and will prove mighty hard to beat.
If the four-year-olds are to continue their monopoly then it will most likely be down to Ashadihan who beat Volunteer Point at Chelmsford last time out. That form looks modest though, certainly when compared to the recent Group race efforts of Muffri’Ha.
3.10 Lingfield (AW Sprint Championship)
STATS Trainer Richard Fahey has raided from North Yorkshire and won this two years out of three.
FORM AND VERDICT He now saddles Kimberella, who won the Lingfield Dash three weeks ago. That was over 5f but he won another ‘Dash’ over 6f in the wide open spaces of the Knavesmire on grass at York last summer.
So, in form, and versatile as to both trip and conditions, but taken on here by Lancelot Du Lac – one of my Early Bird horses – with the pair, both aged seven, locked together on the same rating of 107.
Lancelot won over the Lingfield CD in February and is much more experienced on the course. His form figures there since November 2013 are 3301212.
3.40 Lingfield (Mile Championship)
STATS Four-year-olds are rare runners in this (only two in the three years of the race), so the fact that the winners have been aged five, six and seven is hardly relevant.
DRAW winning stalls 5, 8, 8
FORM AND VERDICT Nimr raced round the Lincoln Trial field at Wolverhampton but found the wide open spaces of Town Moor an alien landscape in the Lincoln itself at Doncaster.
Nimr (15.0 on BETDAQ this morning) could return to form today, back on the man-made surface of a turning track but faces two other progressive four-year-olds.
Ennaadd has raced through the ratings, up 22lb from a class-3 at Chelmsford to the 113 conferred on him when he won a Listed on the last day at Kempton.
As well as being responsible for Ennaadd’s sequence, trainer Roger Varian is currently on four winners from nine runners (only one unplaced) in the last 14 days.
Qurbaan has even better form if you count his two Listed wins, back to back, December-February, both on Polytrack, between Deauville and Cagnes-sur-Mer.
It’s hard to tell what his rating might be, but his penultimate victory, the one at Deauville in December, was at the expense of the 110 eight-year-old, Sovereign Debt, who takes him on again today.
The official handicapper says Qurbaan is 7lb behind Ennaadd off 106 which seems to underestimate him and makes him only an 11lb progressive animal from five races in the last year.
But we have the line that Ennaadd had the same Sovereign Debt back in third at Kempton’s qualifier for this race in November and has officially improved 7lb since then. So it must be Ennaadd to win.
4.10 Lingfield (3yo Championship)
DRAW winning stalls 1, 8
FORM AND VERDICT William Haggas has another short priced runner on today’s valuable card with Second Thought who has won all three of his races since a debut second at Salisbury.
He warmed up for this by beating Sutter County by three quarters of a length in the Spring Cup – but over the shorter trip today I fancy Sutter County to gain his revenge. He was only pegged back in the dying strides by Second Thought and over the shorter trip today might blast into a winning lead.
4.40 Lingfield (Middle Distance Championship)
STATS This is the one that goes to the favourite. The three winners, Grendisar, Tryster and Grandeur, have all been jolly hot: 6-4, 1-2 and 4-6.
DRAW Winning stalls 2, 2, 4
FORM AND VERDICT When Convey (stall 4) won the Winter Derby, he had Grendisar and Battalion fifth and sixth, and he looks a fourth consecutive winning jolly in this. Banker.
DAQMAN’S LINGFIELD BETS (win bets staked to win 20 points except banker)
BET 2.3pts win and place HOLIDAY MAGIC (1.40)
BET 3.7pts win and place NATURAL SCENERY (2.10)
BET 14pts win MUFFRI’HA (2.40)
BET 4.7pts win LANCELOT DU LAC (3.10)
BET 13pts win ENNAADD and 1.5pts win and place (to win 30) NIMR (3.40)
BET 3.4pts win and place SUTTER COUNTY (4.10)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CONVEY (4.40)
OTHER BETS: 3pts win and place FABRICATE (3.25 Newcastle) and 5.5pts win TAAMOL (3.55 Newcastle)
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