DAQMAN PUNTS 10.0 AND 13.0 OUTSIDERS: It’s a super Sunday with the first day of Fairyhouse, Classic trials in France, plus a Champion Hurdle and Grand National on a lower level in England. Daqman has an 11.0 bet in the hurdle and one at 13.0 in the chase.
RACE-BY-RACE MULLINS v ELLIOTT ANALYSIS: Daqman concentrates his analysis on the Willie Mullins clash with Gordon Elliott as he starts to claw back Elliott’s lead at Fairyhouse and Cork this afternoon. Elliott is odds on for the Irish trainers’ title but Mullins has saved his big guns for today and at Punchestown.
33 POINTS UP IN DAQMAN v PRICEWISE: Daqman has his own battle of the big time, leading Pricewise of the Racing Post 5-0 with their value bets in feature races (2.50 and 4.00 at Fairyhouse today). Daqman is nearly 33 points in front to a level stake (Daqman +12.50, Pricewise – 20).
YORKHILL WILLIE’S GOLD BANKER
Ok, now let’s tango! Willie Mullins was a wallflower at Aintree in order to concentrate on a Fairyhouse and Punchestown demolition of Gordon Elliott’s lead in the Irish trainers’ table.
Now he takes to the floor, with Elliott (fielding 11 contenders) 362,699euros in front of Mullins (saddling seven) on the opening day. Let’s dance!
1.45 Fairyhouse The hurdles bridesmaid Tudor City (form 1222 but winner of a big handicap at the Galway Festival on the Flat) is gradually improving over hurdles, according to the handicapper.
But Elliott’s Broken Soul, seemingly exposed, has been docked 3lb for deteriorating hurdles efforts since winning a bumper and needs a revival here.
Something’s very likely to come out of the woodwork and beat both market leaders, and I think Elliott can hope for no more than 1,365 for third.
2.20 Fairyhouse Five years out of six, this has gone to young horses carrying less than 11st, two of them for Tony Martin, who has booked Ruby Walsh and Donagh Meyler to try to lift this first handicap of the Irish National meeting.
Aged only four, Elliott’s Dakota Moirette is plenty high enough in the handicap, and has been beaten favourite in two tries at Fairyhouse, with success at Punchestown sandwiched in between.
He went to Cheltenham off 131 for the Fred Winter and finished seventh. Winner and second have run since, beaten into second and fourth in the equivalent juveniles’ race at Aintree by the prolific Defi Du Seuil but the handicapper has dropped Dakota Moirette 6lb for that, as if thinks that all bar Defi are much of a muchness.
Martins’ Artful Artist (form 224032) is a bridesmaid, Flat and jumps, and Meyler’s mount, the stablemate Babanango, has no measurable form
The one I like is Liz Doyle’s La Bella Vida (BETDAQ 17.5), but the form of the others looks thin and the young Dakota brave is booked for a place. I’ll say second.
2.50 Fairyhouse (Mares Novice Hurdle Championship Final) With the four Willie Mullins saddles and two for Elliott, there’s only room for one other, an English raider but feared by both Irish camps because Colin’s Sister is second in on the ratings and has, literally, leapt from obscurity with four wins in a row.
Like Let’s Dance’s five in a row, it has taken her to Grade 2, Unlike Let’s Dance, who has been beaten twice at the highest level, this is her first crack at Grade 1.
Airlie Beach is the only Grade-1 winner so far and that was here at Fairyhouse before her flop in the Mares Novice at Cheltenham, when Lets Dance beat Barra, giving that one 5lb.
Airlie Beach (10.0 on BETDAQ this morning) went off as the hare that day, setting it up for Lets Dance, though she can tuck in as she has before and show considerably better form now.
We have evidence of that from the Royal Bond. The runner-up, Saturnas, won the Future Champions at Leopardstown after that, an the fourth Penhill took the Albert Bartlett. I reckon it’s acey-deucy between Lets Dance and Airlie Beach for Mullins.
4.00 Fairyhouse (Ryanair Novice Gold Cup) Gordon Elliott could lift the two-mile novice with 8.4 offer Third Opinion (3.25) but it’s hard to fancy Ball d’Arc or anything else beating the JLT winner, Yorkhill, a banker for Willie Mullins in the longer novice chase (wins around six points for every 10 bet).
His opponents are all Grade3 at best, barring Some Plan, and you would sincerely hope for the sake of Ireland’s novices that a nine-year-old doesn’t win it. Road To Respect, second in the BETDAQ market, has already been beaten by that one.
4.35 and 5.10 Fairyhouse The bridesmaid Crest can be second again (4.35 for Elliott) and iI’m folopwing a whisper for Lesley Dawn (5./10) to win the bumper at 5.9 offers on BETDAQ from Red Jack and Elliott’s Dorydalis. This is how I see the trainers’ battle panning out:
MULLINS v ELLIOTT: YOU DO THE MATH
1.45 Broken Soul third (1,365 to Elliott)
2.20 Dakota Moirette second (3,247 to Elliott)
2.50 Lets Dance, Airlie Beach first and second (78,000 to Mullins)
3.25 Third Opinion wins (29,500 to Elliott)
4.00 Yorkhill wins, Ball d’Arc third (59,000 to Mullins, 9,000 to Elliott)
4.35 Crest second (3,247 for Elliott)
5.10 Dorydalis third (9,000 for Elliott)
GRAND TOTAL: Willie Mullins 137,000, Gordon Elliott 55,359
EXCELLENT CHAMPION AT 11.0
3.05 Cork (Dr Vincent O’Brien Centenary Chase) This looks like a veterans race with the exception of Leopardstown Chase winner A Toi Phil and Val de Ferbet. Phil can add another 19,987 to the Elliott treasure chest.
3.45 Plumpton (Sussex Champion Hurdle) The winner invariably comes from the bottom half of the handicap; no older than seven; no bigger than 7-1, except last year when the ground was soft.
Today’s turf, but watered after drainage work, could be quite fast, with Bleu Et Noir, Caid Du Lin, Hint Of Mint, Remiluc and Templier all front or van runners.
They could set it up for Tommy Silver, a 7.6 shot on BETDAQ this morning who won well at Taunton (going good) in his prep for Cheltenham. Maestro Royal may need some cut but Excellent Team looks a bit big at 11.0, as a top-of-the-ground horse who is on the upgrade.
5.15 Ffos Las (West Wales National) Yet another new National! And another race today where the change in the ground could change the form as we know it.
But the local stable responsible for sound-surface runner, Buachaill Alainn, will also have to do an about-turn if he is to succeed: Peter Bowen’s last six runners have been beaten a total of 160 lengths, just one getting a place in a small field.
It leaves me choosing between Devon National winner, Kingswell Theatre (13.0 on BETDAQ), and Eider Chase runner-up Knockanrawley, 5.0 favourite. I’ll back both..
NOW HERE COMES LADY FRANKEL!
3.30 Chantilly (Prix de la Grotte) Last year produced Qemah, the winner of the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, for Jean-Claude Rouget who nows saddles Toulifaut.
It’s the French version of Mullins v Elliott, with Andre Fabre’s Lady Frankel the lilkey threat to the Rouget favourite.
4.10 Chantilly (Prix Noailles) Akihiro (Mazxime Guyon) won both starts at two for Andre Fabre but, of his two others, Soleil Marin (Michael Barzalona) and Galipad (Vincent Cheminaud) the Galileo colt may be more than a pacemaker, something in his own righ,.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20, unless otherwise stated)
BET 2.7pts win DAKOTA MOIRETTE, 1.2pts win and place LA BELLA VIDA (2.20 Fairyhouse)
BET 2pts win and place AIRLIE BEACH (2.50 Fairyhouse)
BANKER BET: 20pts win A TOI PHIL (3.05 Cork)
BET 2.7pts win and place THIRD OPINION (3.25 Fairyhouse)
BET 3pts win TOMMY SILVER, and 2pts win and place EXCELLENT TEAM (3.45 Plumpton)
BET GOLD BANKER: 30pts win (nap) YORKHILL (4.00 Fairyhouse)
BET 4pts win LESLEY DAWN (5.10 Fairyhouse)
BET 5pts win KNOCKANRAWLEY, and 2pts win and place KINGSWELL THEATRE (5.15 Ffos Las).
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