22.0 IRISH GRAND NATIONAL GAMBLE: Daqman sorts the stats and the facts for the Irish Grand National, which he won last year at 34.0 on BETDAQ. He’s 28 points in front of Pricewise as they go into the race with Daqman 5-1 up on winners landed. Today’s biggest bet in the race is at 22.0.
HOW TO EXCHANGE SILVER FOR GOLD: That 22.0 is the value with BETDAQ, of course. You won’t get prices like that anywhere else. Take Daqman’s Sussex Champion Hurdle success yesterday with Tommy Silver (WON 100-30 from 7.6 on BETDAQ). How BETDAQ exchanges silver for gold!
HERE’S A BIG-RACE WINNER FORU!
5.00 Fairyhouse (Irish Grand National)
Blanket cover may have a new meaning today. Gigginstown House Stud has no fewer than 14 of the field in the irish Grand National today, and the inevitable value in the BETDAQ orange must be their jockey’s pick from the whole team, General Principle (22.0).
But there are two others from a key race and one long ago laid out for the prize, which complete my 1-2-3 (one is a reserve but likely to get in on past records).
STATS TOP FIVE
Eight of the last 11 winners have been aged 7 or 8, carrying no more than 11st. Must have won at 3m or been placed beyond 3m 4f, and raced in at least eight chases. If you check out the field, you will find five that tick all the boxes
Tiger Roll Donagh Meyler won the Ladbrokes Munster National on this one but the Gordon Elliott gelding, still only seven, stepped up considerably on that to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham (4m), with Haymount third.
Haymount Some 17 novices have won this. Gets 6lb to turn around the three-lengths Cheltenham defeat by Tiger Roll, with Ruby Walsh to help.
Had improved at the backend of the year ‘way more than we had anticipated,’ said trainer Willie Mullins and this could be a famous head-to-head with Tiger Roll in the Mullins v Elliot trainers-title contest.
Minella Foru The PP Chase winner at Leopardstown in 2015 made a satisfactory return after injury in a Naas hurdle in January and the J P McManus owned eight-year-old has been well backed for today to achieve what would be a famous feat of training by Eddie Harty. Barry Geraghty booked.
General Principle ‘Catch them on the up’ is good advice for following improvers. But the handicapper says that this one’s back-to-back wins in March were 2lb lower than he’d rated him, so he’s dropped him that amount. Bryan Cooper’s pick of t he 14 Gigginstown runners says the handicapper is wrong.
Bonny Kate If you forgive Bonny Kate her last run – in the Leinster National – you’ll be on a mare who was third in the Troytown, third in the Thyestes and third yet again in the Punchestown Grand National Trial.
But she also ran a stinker in this Irish National a year ago, and the ground may not be testing enough for her.
BEST OF THE REST
Abolitionist Penalised 8lb for winning the Ladbrokes Leinster National in March, after second in the Troytown to the very smart Empire Of Dirt but worse off here now with the third to finish, Bonny Kate.
Noble Endeavour Raised in weight for, ridden clear, winning the PP Chase at Leopardstown in December. Troytown fourth and third in the Ultima at Cheltenham
Ten winners have come from the PP Chase and won the National, but not the winner. Oscar Knight (3rd, Stellar Notion (4th, Thunder and Roses (last) have seemingly better chances from among the also-rans.
Thunder And Roses Fifth in the Leinster National after narrow defeat in the Grade-3 Bobbyjo. Got only as far as the ninth in the Aintree Grand National when badly baulked and unseated rider. Winner of this Fairyhouse version in 2015.
Stellar Notion Excellent jumper, fourth in the PP Chase at Leopardstown in December, and second in the Leopardstown Chase.
You can ignore his run in the Aintree National when, not really enjoying himself over the big National obstacles, he was pulled up after only 13 fences, whereas Roi des Francs ran the whole race.
VERDICT:
NEGATIVES Arbre De Vie looks to have bags of stamina but has never won over fences.
Shutthefrontdoor, Thunder and Roses and Rogue Angel have won this before butthe double has happened only once. No horse has come on from the Liverpool National and won this.
Oscar Knight is a reserve at this stage and there’s no indication that he’ll get in, but they often win if they do! And not once in five years has the race been started from a full complement, with 26, 27, 28 (twice) and 29 starters.
POSITIVES It’s often helpful to find a horse where the race is a long-term target, where they are not jaded by other attempts. The answer is Minella Foru.
Those liking the ground are Abolitionsit, Alpha Des Obeaux, Clarcam, Lord Scoundrel, Minella Foru, Stellar Notion, The Game Changer and Tiger Roll
BETDAQ VALUE 1-2-3: Haymount (12.5 offers) must be the pick at the weights. Minella Foru (15.5) laid out for this and has got his ground. Oscar Knight (16.5), if he gets in; alternative has to be the Gigginstown number one, General Principle (22.0)
LUCKY SEVEN HOLIDAY MEETINGS
FAKENHAM Neil Mulholland is 10-20 with his hurdlers here and a tongue-tie on Magical Thomas (2.15) could make all the difference. Get in early on the same stable’s even-money chance Perfect Timing (3.00 Plumpton) as a stakes saver for this 9.8 bet.
CHEPSTOW Richard Johnson has chosen to go over the bridge to ride principally Copper Kay (2.00), who looks a banker after a Grade-2 second at Newbury
HUNTINGDON Kapgarde King’s two handicap chase wins have both come on right-handed tracks on goodish ground, including over CD here for an amateur rider. The reliable Adrian Heskin now takes over (4.3 offers in the 1.20 race)
MARKET RASEN Another who wins only going clockwise, and a fancy price at that, is Zarib (4.30), 9.0 offered in the feature race.
PLUMPTON I could have picked Most Celebrated (2.25 ) as my Neil Mulholland saver (see Fakenham) but his long odds on flies in the face of East Indies form (surely value at 5.7), now dropped massively in class and back to his preferred left-handed way round.
REDCAR The firm ground for the feature sprint suits Laughton (3.45), who has been gelded and is expected to step out of this grade for sprint specialist trainer Kevin Ryan. Nice kow draw today. And tasty 7.0 in the BETDAQ orange
WOLVERHAMPTON When an outfit like Godolphin and a star trainer like John Gosden can be bothered to geld and guide a class-3 level two-year-old in to a second-season career then you can be sure they think there’s something there to work on. Parfait (3.10) is a surprising 5.8 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless otherwise stated)
BET 6pts win KAPGARDE KING and 5pts win COPPERFACE JACK (1.20 Huntingdon)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) COPPER KAY (2.00 Chepstow)
BET 2.2pts win and place MAGICAL THOMAS (2.15 Fakenham) and 5pts win (stakes saver) PERFECT TIMING (3.00 Plumpton) with 1pt win double the two.
BET 4.2pts win EAST INDIES (2.25 Plumpton)
BET 4pts win PARFAIT (3.10 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.3pts win LAUGHTON (3.45 Redcar)
BET 2.5pts win and place ZARIB (4.30 Market Rasen)
BET 3pts win and place SIR HUBERT (4.45 Plumpton)
TON-UP BETS (to win 100): 8.6pts win HAYMOUNT, 6.8pts win MINELLA FORU, 6.4pts win OSCAR KNIGHT, and 4.5pts win and place GENERAL PRINCIPLE (all 5.00 Fairyhouse)
DAQ MULTIPLES HOLIDAY TREBLE: 3 x 3pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble Copper Kay (2.00 Chepstow), East Indies (2.25 Plumpton), Parfait (3.10 Wolverhampton)
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