INSIDE BETTING CIRCLES: DAY 3: Trainers and jockeys have to be skilled at judging a race, as you’ve read in Sunday’s and Monday’s Daqman (in the Archive). Was it all too much like hard work? Well, you can always turn to the tipsters, but they, too, have to be assessed. By you.
WEDNESDAY WINNERS: DAQMAN goes in search of winners on Wednesday with bets at Lingfield, Sandown and a nap on the Catterick card.
WHICH TIPSTERS DIG UP GOLD?
It’s nice of you to criticise my tips. It’s nicer when you praise them when they’ve won. But both are beside the point. You need a long-term view.
Remember you are in competition with other members of the BETDAQ family in the orange and the green who lay when you bet and bet when you lay.
The man who wins money is the man who makes up his own mind. Has an opinion. Ferrets out the value. Adds two and two together and makes five easy pieces.
My job, and that of every tipster, is to put you on the right track, compare possibilities, suggest opportunities. But guess where the buck stops? It stops with you.
I have had a long career as a Press tipster and writer and a professional gambler, sometimes small time, sometimes big; sometimes alongside clever betting operators past and present, working with them on stats and facts even, in the last few years, algorithms.
If, in the past, I found some seemingly-relevant stats, or took a phone-tipster’s tips, or info from a gallops-watcher (what used to be called a tout), the first thing I did was create a computer file or, in paper days, make up a notebook section devoted to assessing his tips or info.
Just as we did with jockeys yesterday, you need to keep a running account of the ability of tipsters until you can see a seam of gold. Or not. You need to know more about him than he knows about himself!
What is his level-stakes profit?
How many winners to runners does he get?
What percentage of short prices to outsiders?
What quality of race is he good at?
At which track does he get his winners?
Which stable?
Which jockey?
Does he do better on good ground or soft? (Sounds like he’s a horse. So he is, if he’s genuine; he’s your workhorse).
Is he a careful tipster or flashy?
Is he prone to panic, smothering you in tips?
What time of year under what Rules of racing is he best?
If you follow me (Daqman), or Shamrock; Proform or Market Movers – and you certainly should – you need to have lists, tables and charts of every tip that’s given and why, with profit and loss; the lot.
It’s your part of the job. Because it’s your money. Your hobby or investment. And it’s your time and trouble. And, by the way, the BETDAQ site is FREE, so I think we do our bit with our time and trouble!
I try to be transparent in different ways with my tipping records (many available in the Daqman Library), giving updates on plus and minus, winners against losers, blah blah. Yes, I’m biased toward winners; aren’t you?
WHERE DO YOU GO TO, MY LOVELY?
2.20 Lingfield It’s disappointing that a horse called Sarstedt isn’t owned by the Aga Khan. That’s one for older readers who remember the great Where Do You Go To My Lovely by Peter Sarstedt who sadly passed away earlier this year.
The equine Sarstedt looks a good win and place option in the opener at Lingfield this afternoon.
He is well drawn in 12 on the turf course and showed some ability on debut when fifth at Chepstow. It was only deep inside the final furlong that he drifted away.
He should know more today and is bred to get this longer trip.
2.30 Catterick Star Of Zaam coped with give in the ground when runner-up at Carlisle and sets the bar at a reasonably high level for the lightly raced and debutants to aim at.
The Karl Burke trained runner is back in maiden company after his second to Ventura Knight last time out at Carlisle and the winner has followed up under a penalty at Leicester.
The Burke have had two winners in the last four days.
The Mark Johnston trained Sunbreak only beat two home on debut but like a lot of the runners from the stable is likely to put in a much improved show today.
7.40 Sandown Best race on tonight’s Sandown card is this class 3 handicap but it’s surely disappointing to see just six runners chasing the £13k prize money on offer?
The Roger Varian stable is red hot and did me a good turn with Atletico at Windsor on Monday. The run can continue tonight with Sultan Baybars who ran a cracker over course and distance last time out to finish second to Mojito. The third from that race, Firefright, came out to win well at Doncaster on it’s next start.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
BET 3pts win 2pts place SARSTEDT (2.20 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win (nap) STAR OF ZAAM (2.30 Catterick)
BET 7pts win SULTAN BAYBARS (7.40 Sandown)
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