KING GEORGE ABC GUIDE: Here’s Daqman’s famous ABC stats check on tomorrow’s King George at Ascot, with more showers forecast on good-to-soft ground.
THE WEEKEND STARTS HERE: DAQMAN previews races at Ascot, Newmarket and York on Friday. He bids for his third winning nap of the week in the 6.40 at Newmarket.
ANOTHER ULYSSES SURGE ON SOFT?
3.35 Ascot tomorrow (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes)
Twice in a few days the King George market has been modified, first with the declaration of dual Oaks winner, Enable, then with the onset of rain, which has seemingly brought Jack Hobbs into the picture, as the original favourite, Highland Reel drifts badly. This is how the stats pan out:
A: Winner over 1m 4f (86%)
B: Four years old (80% in last decade)
C: Group-1 winner (73%)
D: Winner trained Gosden, Stoute, O’Brien
E: Has won on an easy surface
X: Unplaced last time out (none in 35 years)
ABCDE Ulysses
Every year we look out for the Stoute improver among his older horses, and this one has shot up 21lb in the last 12 months from Group-3 winner at Goodwood to defeat of this year’s three-years-old in the shape of Barney Roy in a head-bobbing thriller of a finish for the Eclipse.
But best form over 1m 2f and twice beaten by Highland Reel, last time here at Ascot in June. A winner on good-to-soft ground.
ABCE Sixties Song
Dual Group-1 scorer in S America, by St Leger winner, Sixties Icon, with dam’s line from family of Theatrical. A hill to climb here.
ABD Idaho
A long way off Highland Reel in the Coronation Cup (excuses) but stepped up on that when taking the Hardwicke Stakes ovr the Ascot CD. Placed in the 2016 English and Irish Derbys on softish ground.
ACDEX Jack Hobbs
Slow surface successes, including when winner of the Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. Flopped behind Highland Reel on firm at Royal Ascot (X = black mark of 35 years standing) and needs to bounce back to form of his Irish Derby win (2015). He is five years old now.
ACD Enable
Top of my 2017 Classic-generation, colts and all, the daughter of King George winner, Nathaniel, has surged in her second season as he did (up 37lb), winning both Epsom and Curragh Oaks by around five lengths each time (up 38lb). She has no form on the soft, but Nathaniel had and her dam’s sire is an influence for it.
Her trainer, John Gosden, is the only one to have won this with three-year-olds in the decade. After Nathaniel, he scored with a filly, another Epsom Oaks winner, running off a mark 4lb lower than Enable.
ACD Highland Reel
Hot favourite for this until Enable’s declaration after back-to-back Group-1 wins at Epsom and Ascot. Firm ground suits best and a big drifter because of the rain, but he’s a renowned street fighter.
AE Desert Encounter
Late-developing five-year-old has improved nearly a stone this year, stepping out of handicaps. Stayed on respectable third behind Ulysses in the Eclipse. Has scored up to 1m 6f and likes soft ground.
DEX Maverick Wave
Some 20lb off the best of these and not won since 2015. Presumably pace setter and stable company for Enable and Jack Hobbs.
EX My Dream Boat
Leapt to the fore with defeat of Found at Royal Ascot last year but has disappointed since (four lengths off Ulysses in the Spring). Soft ground will help any revival.
– Benbatl
Epsom Derby fifth who won a 1m 2f Group 3 at Royal Ascot on firm. Dante second on good to soft and dam’s sire influence for deep going. Only lightly raced (five runs) but big leap forward required.
MISTER! THE RAIN ARRIVES AT LAST
2.45 Ascot (Brown Jack Stakes) It’s 4-2 to four-year-olds over three-year-olds in the last six year’s and Mark Johnston is in for the kill with one of each.
Mister Manduro has won only his maiden but may be a ‘hidden horse’ on form, after his controversial seventh in the Queen’s Vase over today’s CD at Royal Ascot in June.
He was withdrawn because of the firm ground from a race the day before but Johnston had no choice but to run him in the Vase because the hoped for thunderstorms didn’t arrive.
Well, hoped-for rain is here now! And Mister Manduro ‘could be anything’ as a lightly-raced three-year-old. The fact that he misses the Johnstons stamping ground, Goodwood, for this speaks volumes.
Also from the Classic generation, UAE King is on a hat-trick but has to make one giant leap for Roger Varian’s kind, out of class-4 company.
Johnston’s four-year-old, Isharah will be ridden by Ryan Moore in an attempt to find out whether he lost his form with overracing or is not the same horse that ran up a hat-trick at the turn of the year.
Seven runs before the end of May suggest he might now bounce back and redeem a sequence of flops but his winning form is all on AW
3.20 Ascot Another duel of the generations, with three-year-olds beating four-year-olds 6-4 since 2007
Tisbutadream is already a Listed winner, and already an Ascot winner but can she perform with cut in the ground?
The soft–ground starlet is clearly the 2016 French 1,000 Guineas runner-up and Nell Gwynn winner Nathra and she goes well fresh but it’s 308 days since we’ve seen her on the racecourse.
And cut in the ground is also the key to yet another Sir Michael Stoute improver, Mittens. Thanks to a punter-friendly 107% overround in the BETDAQ orange, I can back Mittens (4.9 offers) and save on Nathra
6.40 Newmarket Southend Airport should see plenty of business after tonight’s card – all seven races sponsored by the Essex airport!
Whilst not ‘flying’, Simon Crisford has his string in good form (winner at Sandown this week) and his Nobleman’s Nest should prove hard to beat here. He only went down by the minimum nose at Doncaster on debut behind Wasim who went on to run a close third at Haydock under a penalty.
7.30 York (Listed) A competitive renewal but the race generally goes to those prominent in the betting. No winner > 7/1 in the last nine runnings.
Luca Cumani is three winners from his last 11 runners in the last fortnight and has an interesting runner here with Rosental who is just a couple of pounds off the top on official ratings but is still relatively lightly raced and capable of improving further.
She was a winner in France when trained by Andre Fabre at the start of her career and returned to France last time out when a creditable fourth in a Group 2 at Saint-Cloud. It’s good to soft in places at York and any extra rain will be in her favour.
I’m playing win and place on BETDAQ at around 9 on the win market, 2.5 on the place (3 places) at the time of writing.
Ajman Princess heads the market after her third in the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock but her only win to date (excluding a 1/16 romp at Lingfield) came on good to firm ground and she has a penalty in this race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except nap)
BET 8.75pts win MISTER MANDURO, and 2.5pts win and place ISHARAH (2.45 Ascot)
BET 7.5pts win MITTENS and 2.75pts win (stakes saver) NATHRA (3.20 Ascot)
BET 9pts win (nap) NOBLEMAN’S NEST (6.40 Newmarket)
BET 3.75pts win and 2pts place (stakes saver) ROSENTAL (7.30 York)
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