U.S. OPEN: It’s been a strange year in professional tennis, so it’s only fitting that on the eve of the year’s final Grand Slam most of the focus seems to be on the players who will not be making it to Flushing Meadows. It’s an exceptionally long list, and world No. 2 Andy Murray became the latest addition when he announced on Saturday that he would not be able to play due to a hip injury that has been bothering him for the past few weeks. Murray joins Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic on the sidelines, which means that five of the top 11 players in the latest ATP rankings will not be playing in the U.S. Open. For a non-contact sport, that number is quite remarkable.
The women’s draw isn’t quite as diminished, though the absence of Serena Williams continues to loom large on the tour that she has so thoroughly dominated over the past decade. But Serena isn’t the only big name who will be sitting this one out: two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka was forced to withdraw due to legal complications with a child custody battle, so two of the most feared hard-court players in the game– Williams and Azarenka– will be missing the sport’s premier hard-court tournament. That seems to have opened things up considerably for someone like Wimbledon champ Garbine Muguruza, who currently heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 5.0 despite the fact that she has never advanced beyond the second round of this tournament.
Here’s a quick rundown of what we can expect to see on both the men’s and women’s side, along with a few recommendations. *REMINDER- BETDAQ is offering 0% commission on all tennis bets. You simply won’t find a better deal anywhere.
MEN’S DRAW
It’s worth remembering just how remarkable the past 12 months have been in the men’s game– at this time last year, Novak Djokovic was the undisputed king of the sport in the midst of a historic run, while Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal were widely viewed as fading vets whose championship days had passed them by. After all, Federer hadn’t won a Grand Slam since 2012, and Nadal had been dogged by injuries for years and had seen his ranking plummet as a result. Both of them, it was generally understood, had been permanently eclipsed by Djokovic, and possibly by Andy Murray as well.
Fast forward to today, and the world has flipped upside down, or perhaps has started spinning backwards. Tennis is a young man’s game, yet Federer and Nadal have rediscovered the magic in their twilight years, combining to win all three of this year’s Grand Slams and positioning themselves as the clear favorites in the fourth. Federer sports a 3-seed and heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 2.6, while Nadal, the 1-seed, sits right behind him at 4.2. But they’re both in the top half of the draw, so if they meet, it will be in the semis. The other side could be total chaos now that Murray has withdrawn, making this a golden opportunity for some go the young up-and-comers who haven’t yet broken through at a Slam.
One of those guys is Alexander Zverev, the 20-year old German who has had a monster year, winning five singles titles, but has not been a factor in any of the Grand Slams. He’s red hot, having beaten Federer in straight sets in the Montreal final two weeks ago, and he’s currently trading at a shortish 6.0 at BETDAQ, so he’s obviously someone worth keeping a close eye on. Other contenders who can avoid Federer and Nadal on their way to the final include Wimbledon finalist Marin Cilic (13.0), the always fiesta Jo-Wilfred Tsonga (60.0), big-serving American John Isner (90.0), and the resurgent David Ferrer (85.0), who has been playing some great tennis at age 35.
As for the favorites, Federer is in fine form but is facing a difficult draw, as he’ll have to get past the likes of Feliciano Lopez, Nick Kyrgios, Dominic Thiem, and Juan Martin del Potro before he reaches Nadal. Rafa will have his hands full as well, but for a different reason– after a dominant late spring/early summer stretch his game has slipped badly of late, and he seems a little fragile at the moment. He’s failed to reach the semis in three straight events, and quite frankly it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him go down in the early rounds. If he wins his first few matches, Grigor Dimitrov may await in the quarterfinal.
WOMEN’S DRAW
There’s no denying that a Serena-sized hole exists in women’s tennis right now, but in a way that makes things more exciting because it opens everything up. There are upwards of 20 players with a legitimate chance to win this tournament, and all of the favorites have some questions to answer.
Garbine Muguruza (5.0) may sit atop the market, but in four previous U.S. Open appearances she’s never advanced beyond the second round. Karolina Pliskova, the 1-seed who sits right behind Muguruza at 6.6, has had a disappointing past few weeks, getting bounced early at Wimbledon and failing to make the final in both Toronto and Cincinnati. Pliskova is followed by Elina Svitolina (9.8), a player who has notoriously struggled in the Slams and has never advanced beyond the third round in this one. Then there’s Johanna Konta (11.0), who is just 2-2 in her last four matches, and Simona Halep (12.0), the 2-seed who has famously never won a Slam and has only advanced beyond the quarters at this tournament once in seven attempts.
And those are the favorites. The rest of the field is even more unproven, though there are a few players who are right on the brink of breaking through to the sport’s upper echelon. Someone like Sloane Stevens (46.0), for instance, or Ashleigh Barty (96.0)– both are young, skillful, and have shown giant-killing ability. Just a few weeks ago, for example, the relatively unknown Barty enjoyed a straight-sets win over Muguruza on the way to the Aegon Classic final, and then last week she beat Venus Williams in Cincinnati. Is it really that hard to imagine someone like that getting hot over the next two weeks and pulling off a career-changing win, similar to what Jelena Ostapenko did at the French Open a couple of months ago? Chasing the long odds doesn’t usually pay off in a sport like tennis, but in this instance, with Serena on the couch and the draw as open as ever, there seem to be several long-odds types with realistic paths to the semis and beyond.
So why keep the powder dry this week? It’s the final Grand Slam of the year, and the only thing more satisfying than kicking back and watching a little Grand Slam tennis on a late summer evening is winning money while doing so. And remember… 0% commission on all U.S. Open action at BETDAQ.
RECOMMENDED BETS (odds in parenthesis)
BACK Grigor Dimitrov (15.0)- Dimitrov is at the top of his game, having just won in Cincinnati, and his draw is quite friendly until a potential date with Nadal in the quarters. He’d be an underdog in that match, but Rafa has been fading lately and Dimitrov beat him on hard courts last year in Beijing. The Bulgarian offers great value at a price like 15.0.
BACK Garbine Muguruza (5.0)- While I meant all the stuff about the women’s side being wide open this year and the longshots having more value than usual, the objective truth is that Muguruza is the clear favorite and, were it not for her mediocre record in this tournament, she would look like an absolute steal at 5.0. She’s a seasoned champion who has proven her mettle in the toughest of circumstances and she’s coming off an incredibly impressive performance in the Cincinnati tournament, where she beat the likes of Keys, Kuznetsova, and Pliskova before demolishing Simona Halep 6-1, 6-0 in the final.
BACK Daria Gavrilova (114.0)- The 23-year old Gavrilova may have limited experience on the big stage, but she perfectly fits the mold of someone who could break through with a career-changing tournament title: she’s a hard court specialist who won three matches at the Australian Open this year, so she’ll be in her element, and most importantly she’s coming off her best performance as a professional, winning the Connecticut Open last week after mowing down 1-seed Agnieska Radwanska in the semis and 2-seed Dominika Cibulkova in the final. I’m happy to take a flier on Gavrilova at a price like 114.0.
