SEE HOW THEY WON: CHAMPIONS-DAY STATS: Five championship races at Ascot on Saturday so Daqman will examine one each day, Monday to Friday, so you can take an early look at the fields and find the best races for following the stats. He starts with the Long-Distance Cup.
9-2 WINNER: NOW FOR MONDAY: Mia’s Storm (WON 9-2) kept the Daqman winners flowing yesterday. Today he is spoilt for choice with a nine race card at Great Yarmouth and a nap on the Musselburgh card.
LOW DRAW DESPITE LONG DISTANCE
1.25 Ascot (Saturday) British Champions Long-Distance Cup If you are a stats fan, this will be a banker race for you to launch Saturday’s Champions Day.
But banker for reasons which mean you must wait until nearer the time, and you know the draw and the ‘future ratings’ (reassessed ratings on the day).
In the six years since it’s been run at Ascot, five of the winners have come from stalls 2, 3 and 4. At the same time, the ‘future ratings’ on the day in the Racing Post have named four of the six winners off 117 and two off 115.
These are incredibly tight parameters and, if taken together, could be strong mutual pointers to a value bet, with a sure-to-be bonus of BETDAQ offers in a punter-friendly, low-overround market.
Public perception has failed to grasp the stats situation, as made clear by the variation in the winner’s SP from 3-1 to 20-1. Ages of the winner have ranged from four to eight.
Not a successful favourite in sight since the old days when the race was run at Newmarket.
Twelve of the 30 left in are from Ireland, which won this race four years running (2011-14) and is likely to have Aidan O’Brien’s Order Of St George leading the market, though only fourth last year behind Sheikhzayedroad, who is also in the possible line-up again.
GREAT BECOMES GREATER AT YARMOUTH
DAQMAN nearly choked on his cornflakes this morning and was about to call the opticians for a new prescription before he realised it was actually true. There ARE nine races this afternoon at Great(er) Yarmouth.
The card starts at 1.40, ends at 5.40 and the handicap has been divided. I just wonder what kind of precedent this sets and whether ‘race creep’ will continue and where will it end?
It used to be just America that staged super-sized cards but at Delaware today there are also the same nine races and DAQMAN poses the question when is enough, er, enough?
Six race cards used to be set in stone but slowly, slowly seven race cards crept in, then the odd eight and now this.
Bad news for those newspapers who can still be bothered to print race cards. I’m not convinced punters need more but the proof, as always, will be in the pudding.
Fortunately, this particular pudding does have a cherry on top today with the Listed Beckford Stakes sandwiched in the middle of the nine course feast.
It’s a good contest too with plenty of top Newmarket stable representation.
Wingingit looks the one to be on. She made her debut for Andrew Balding when sixth at Newbury in a Group 3 over 1m 3f and was beaten just over three lengths but the key today is the step up in trip.
She was previously trained in Ireland and on her final run there was only beaten half a length in a Listed race at Leopardstown over 1m 6f and with plenty of these having something to prove on the stamina front she passes with flying colours on that front.
The faster ground will also be to her liking (and a warm day is forecast) so it could well ride good to firm.
The lightly raced Aljezeera is the market leader and is another that should be suited by both ground and trip. She was beaten a half length in a blanket finish to the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster on soft ground.
She’s progressive and her chance is hard to crab but, as always, prices dictate and backing Wingingit at around 5.6 on BETDAQ compared to the favourite at 2.88 has to be my play given I don’t have much between the pair.
Dubka for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore was well held by Aljezeera on Park Hill form whilst Daphne will have more on her plate after two game but narrow recent wins in handicap company.
3.20 Musselburgh ‘Only’ eight races at Musselburgh and it could be breezy too if Ophelia has her say.
This looks a match between Alpha Delphini and Ornate who can’t be split on official ratings – both 107.
I’m quick though to split them and join the Alpha Delphini fan club mainly on the reason of ground. All three of Ornate’s career wins have come on good ground and he has three lengths to find with Alpha Delphini on Beverley form last time out. I’m not sure the 6lb will be enough on ground that seems to favour Alpha Delphini better.
Alpha Delphini has a real touch of class too as he proved at Royal Ascot when getting within five lengths of USA speedster Lady Aurelia in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
5.30 Windsor Crimson Rosette looks vulnerable against an improver and in particular Ciaoadiosimdone who wasn’t disgraced on debut in a Listed race at Newmarket. Talk about starting life in the deep end, she won’t be a 200/1 shot for this one!
I’m also done. Ciao.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Win bets staked to win 20 points, expect nap)
BET 4.3pts win WINGINGIT (3.10 Yarmouth)
BET 11pts win (nap) ALPHA DELPHINI (3.20 Musselburgh)
BET 11pts win CIAOADIOSIMDONE (5.30 Windsor)
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