SIX WINNING DAYS IN A ROW FOR 104 POINTS: Daqman’s done it again! His nap yesterday, Boyhood (WON 15-8), gave him SIX consecutive days in the black with an overall profit to recommended stakes of 104 points. It was his third successful nap in the six days among THIRTEEN winning hits, which included:
WON 15-8 BOYHOOD (Tuesday nap)
WON 9-2 WAY BACK THEN (Monday)
WON 4-1 MARIA’S BENEFIT (Sunday)
WON 6-1 SAUNTER (Saturday, November Handicap, 10.0 BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 DREAM OF DREAMS (Saturday, 9.6 BETDAQ)
WON 14-1 DIAMOND GAIT (Friday)
WON 5-2 POUVOIR MAGIQUE (Friday)
WON 11-4 MONBEG CHARMER (Thursday, 5.6 BETDAQ)
WON 5-2 POPPY KAY (Thursday)
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM CHELTENHAM? Today Daqman continues to pick holes in this weekend’s Cheltenham trials where the novice events are concerned. What can we really expect from the winners? Three Wednesday bets with a nap on the Newcastle card.
ARKLE POINTER? IT’S A ‘GARDED’ ANSWER
1.50 Cheltenham, Sunday (Arkle Trophy Trial Novices Chase) Can Sunday’s Prestbury Park novice races redeem the lack of immediate festival potency in the Friday trials?
I believe that last year’s winner of this, Le Prezien, is in line for a crack at Cheltenham 2018, and have added him to my horses to follow but that is a year on. Is there a precedent for this trial winner actually doing well at Cheltenham the following Spring?
Garde La Victoire (2015) Fell at both Cheltenham and Aintree in 2016 (8th 2017 Champion Chase, and beaten twice since the summer break).
Dunraven Storm (2014) Pulled up the following Spring in the Arkle proper and 1-23 in modest CV since.
Dodging Bullets (2013) A similar story to yesterday’s Trial-winning novices. Unplaced in the 2014 Arkle but won the Champion Chase the following year.
Captain Conan (2012) Flopped two years running at the Cheltenham festival in 2013 and 2014 but won the 2013 Manifesto at Aintree.
Al Ferof (2011) Failed subsequently in two season’s form at the Cheltenham festivals but won the autumn gold cup there in November 2012.
ALTIOR TRANSCENDS HURDLE TRIALISTS
3.30 Cheltenham, Sunday (Supreme Trial Novices Hurdle) Does this novice hurdle with its oblique reference to the Supreme do any better immediately than does its steeplechase counterparts on the Friday-Sunday cards. See what you think…
Moon Racer (2016) Pulled up and 17-lengths sixth at this Spring’s Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. Not seen since.
Altior (2015) A hero at last! Eight straight wins after taking this race, including the superb Cheltenham double of Supreme Novices Hurdle (2016) and the Arkle (2017). The exception that proves the rule.
Vyta Du Roc (2014) Neptune and RSA defeats after taking this trial.
The Liquidator (2013) Out of the frame in just four races since.
But Dodging Bullets (2012) and Cue Card (2010) were both champions, suggesting that, like yesterday, the hurdles trial is a better long-term diviner than the novice chases.
BAILEY TAKES THE EXETER BISCUITS
A good card at Exeter this afternoon headlined by Yanworth who returns to the track after his chase debut win here three weeks ago in the Best Mate Chase. He wasn’t overly impressive that day but well on top at the end. Hopefully we’ll see progression as he faces another simple task on paper but at cramped odds there are better bets on the card for me.
3.35 Exeter Market leaders have a good record here but I’m not convinced by Rosemary Russet. A juxtaposition if ever I saw one.
She reappears after 240 days and I’m not sure her half length win in a Southwell bumper in March is enough to warrant favouritism for this altogether better looking race on her hurdling debut. The runner-up from the Southwell race has gone on to finish second in three subsequent bumpers and was only fourth on her hurdling debut at Ffos Las so the bare form of that race doesn’t look anymore than average at best.
I thought Biscuit looked a fair alternative, especially as Kim Bailey’s horses are showing good early season form. She ran well in three bumper starts and looks very much the sort to progress into a nice hurdler.
Alan King’s Tillythetank looked a nice prospect under point to point code but I would like to sea Biscuit (did you SEE what I did there?!) make a winning start.
4.05 Exeter I have to be with Kim Bailey again here with Rhaegar who was well supported on bumper debut and didn’t let his supporters down with a smooth win at Warwick. This is a big step-up in trip but he was staying on resolutely and I think the race looks ideal over the extra five furlongs.
White Moon is the obvious danger after his impressive success at Wincanton over this trip and will be a big danger if as effective on the slower ground today.
4.15 Newcastle The Simon Crisford trained Ostillo, a chestnut son of New Approach was as green as the grass he was racing on for his debut at Leicester but only beaten half a length. Mark Johnston’s Illusional was beaten four lengths on debut at Brighton and the value of Brighton form always has to be treated with caution. I don’t think either of these are world beaters and John Gosden’s debutant Kings Shield might be. He has a dirt pedigree and it will be disappointing if he can’t get off the mark her and start repaying his lofty £675,000 price tag.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, except nap)
BET 4.3pts win BISCUIT (3.35 Exeter)
BET 6.6pts win RHAEGAR (4.05 Exeter)
BET 11pts win (nap) KINGS SHIELD (4.15 Newcastle)
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