SUPERNAP SCORES BUT THE BIG FISH WAS SECOND: The Saturday Daqman Plan was to cover the day’s betting expenses with a supernap, then hook a big-odds catch in one of handicaps. Result: Redicean (WON 8-13) landed the nap (8-10 on BETDAQ in the morning) but the big fish (Cogry 2ND 14-1) escaped.
TODAY’S BEST BET WAS A MORNING OFFER OF 6.2: Daqman now meets Pricewise in today’s Dan Moore Memorial at Fairyhouse 14-7 up and 39 points clear (+ 45 to +6). The nap today at Kelso was a 6.2 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
‘BALKO’ BOWEN BOGEY AT KELSO
For McCoy, read Bowen. That’s the kind of ballyhoo surrounding 16-year-old James Bowen after his seven-day Saturday double in the Welsh National last week and the Lanzarote yesterday.
The problem for value punters is whether odds about his mounts diminish now that he’s in the limelight.
The Tony McCoy ethic was always business as usual and treat every mount the same. Bowen certainly does that today.
He makes the long haul to Kelso for one engagement, appropriately Dexcite (1.40), for a race in which the boy’s 5lb claim puts his ride right out of the handicap.
James can do 9st 6lb so maybe only 3lb of saddle stuffing, maybe none depending on breakfast while, for example, Will Kennedy will have to pack two stone of ‘lead’, as dead-weight on Chti Balko.
That’s very much in Bowen’s favour for now but he could do with some big breakfasts. To be a McCoy, you have to ride much higher up the handicap and in level-weights races.
Paper forecast third favourite in the Kelso heat today, Dexcite fronted the early-mouse BETDAQ market at 3.7, with the overnight leader, Charmant, and Chti Balko easy to back. How does that square with the form?
Well, as his featherweight reveals, Dexcite has won only in a lower grade (class 4) and only on good ground, both a worry here in a class 2 on the soft.
Charmant has the recent-form edge but in the same lower class, and is 16lb higher for his two December wins, though it’s in his favour that both were in the mud.
Though Chti Balko is up in the ratings for an all-the-way success at Haydock, his actual weight remains the same in this better race.
Interesting that the third home that day off 9st 9lb (Dexcite’s weight this afternoon) had, like Dexcite, won only a class 4 novice and a pull of 31lb was not enough. Seven lengths not enough!
The rider of that third horse at Haydock that day was none other than James Bowen, who could see only the back end of ‘Balko’ and must realise what a formidable opponent he has here at Kelso today.
A bigger threat on the good book appears to be Monfass off the same mark as Dexcite. He won a class 2 at Carlisle but the race doesn’t bare scrutiny and Monfass is a weak sort, who finds it hard to put two races together.
Cornborough has gone well in better company and Imada (stable in form) has won after a long break before. But the 6.2 offers Chti Balko (2.06 a place) looked big for a win-and-place bet with a built-in win saver if it places, which is the most likely outcome in the entire race.
Back to the McCoy comparisons, his great asset was to be able to lift lesser – and unwilling – horses to win races they shouldn’t. Over to you Master Bowen.
TOWNSHEND’S TURN IN DAN MOORE
2.35 Fairyhouse (Dan Moore Memorial Chase) He’s back! One of the stars of the Daqman show in recent years, Cause Of Causes.
Since March 2015, he’s won for us the NH Chase (43-1), the Kim Muir (10-1), and the Cheltenham Festival Cross-Country, and finished second in the Liverpool Grand National.
March and April are more than ever his targets this time around, after this late start to the 2017-18 season. But this is a weak race by Grade A standards, and I’ll never forgive myself if I miss his 20.0 BETDAQ offer and he wins.
The Ten Up Novice Chase winner last February, Acapella Bourgeois, has disappointed since.
Polidam, who beat him nine lengths at Navan in December, failed to cope with top company and a step up in trip over Christmas, and sidesteps today’s race.
My Willie Mullins fancy in this one is 6.6 BETDAQ offer Townshend, who was outstayed and outclassed in Death Duty’s Drinmore five weeks back but scored three in a row still standing in the Spring of last year.
Don’t Touch It was 18 lengths behind him at Galway, and I’m waiting to see him in cheekpieces again. They seemed to make all the difference when he won at Punchestown.
Doctor Phoenix never figured on this track last month but had ‘stuffed’ the second horse home, de Benno, when they met at Cork earlier so could bounce back.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
1.40 Kelso
BET 3.75pts win (nap) and place CHTI BALKO
2.35 Fairyhouse
BET 3.5pts win TOWNSHEND
BET 1pt win and place CAUSE OF CAUSES
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